Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) stock adjusts in price following 5:1 split
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock has officially split and had its trading price adjusted on August 31st, 2020. Tesla shares are now trading at $442.68, although they were trading at $2,213.40 per share on Friday afternoon.
The split is intended to bring on a variety of new, individual, and young investors. They will now be able to get their hands on full shares of the electric automaker’s stock if they could not afford the over $2,200 price tag that the shares held just a few days ago.
Tesla announced on August 11th that it intended to perform a 5:1 stock split at the end of August after the company’s Board of Directors voted to make shares of its stock more accessible to employees and retail investors.
The number of shares multiplied by five and the stock price was adjusted by dropping 80% in value per share. The company’s valuation is still the same, but the number of shares available for trading is now larger. Thus, the price per share had to be adjusted to keep the market capitalization the same.
In reality, the split of TSLA shares likely will not have a massive impact on the price of the stock. The act of splitting a stock does not change the value or market capitalization of an entity. It merely makes shares more accessible to smaller investors. In a top-ten list of TSLA’s largest owners, only two are individual shareholders: Elon Musk at 20.8% and business magnate Larry Ellison with .32%.
The other eight spots are held by large companies that have sizeable holdings of the company’s stock. The largest is Baillie Gifford, who owns a 1.26% stake in the electric automaker. The ownership stake is worth $5.2 billion, Bloomberg reported.
Tasha Keeney of ARK Invest clarified her thoughts regarding the split on an episode of Yahoo Finance’s The Ticker late last week.
“A stock split now, especially with fractional shares, shouldn’t have that big of an impact,” Keeney said. “But of course, you could see some price appreciation from investors basically misunderstanding it, thinking that it might be cheaper.”
Tesla has benefited enormously from retail investing’s growth in 2020, which has grown exponentially in 2020, according to a report from U.S. News. With no-fee brokerage accounts that are easily accessible through a smartphone, many individual investors are getting their first taste of trading.
Anthony Deiner of Webull Financial, a commission-free trading platform, says that the lack of entertainment due to the COVID-19 pandemic may have encouraged some people to use the financial market as entertainment.
“Younger and first-time investors have been flocking to open no-fee, app-based brokerage accounts way before anyone in the U.S. even heard [of the pandemic],” Deiner said. “However, the forced lockdown, void of sporting, concerts, and other forms of entertainment events have certainly opened trading and investing to a much larger market than ever before.”
Sites like Robinhood and Charles Schwab have reported a large number of new brokerage accounts on their platforms, showing retail investing is healthy as life continues to change during the pandemic.
At the time of writing, TSLA stock was up 3.46% in pre-market trading at $458.00 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
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Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
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For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
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