Longtime Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bull and New Street Research analyst Philippe Ferragu has described CES 2026 as “The Great Validation Chamber” for Tesla’s autonomous driving efforts. 

Ferragu shared his insights in a series of posts on social media platform X. 

In a thread on X, Ferragu highlighted two key events that validated Tesla’s autonomy strategy at CES 2026: Mobileye’s focus on cost-efficient L2+ hardware and NVIDIA’s “Alpamayo,” which uses artificial intelligence to accelerate the development of autonomous driving systems.

As per the analyst, however, the validation of Tesla’s strategy on autonomous driving does not mean that the industry is catching up to the electric vehicle maker. Ferragu noted that ultimately, the industry still likely has a 12-year lag against Tesla. 

“CES 2026 = The Great Validation Chamber for Tesla. The signal from Vegas is loud and clear: The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy… just with a 12-year lag. Two critical takeaways solidify our thesis:

“1) Mobileye validates the strategy but flies lower and behind. Great win for Mobileye; white flag for western OEMs, abandoning the L4 dream to standardize cost-efficient L2+ hardware. Standardizing the equivalent of HW2 (2016) for 2028 – 12 years behind.

“2) Nvidia validates the Tesla stack with ‘Alpamayo,’ pivoting Physical AI towards Reasoning – Total vindication of FSD V13/V14’s architecture. Go to market will be the issue: Nvidia provides the kitchen (chips/models), but legacy OEMs still have to cook. Good luck with that,” Ferragu wrote in his thread on X. 

Elon Musk, for his part, has responded to some of CES 2026’s developments on X. In response to comments on X about Alpamayo seemingly becoming a potential competitor to FSD, Musk stated that he is hoping Nvidia succeeds in its autonomous driving efforts. 

That being said, Musk predicted that what “they will find is that it’s easy to get to 99% and then super hard to solve the long tail of the distribution.” He also noted that rivals systems such as Alpamayo will likely only put competitive pressure on Tesla in 5 or 6 years, or possibly even longer, considering the pace of the automotive industry as a whole. 

Elon Musk has provided a candid estimate on potential challengers to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. 

Musk’s comments came on the heels of NVIDIA’s announcement of its Alpamayo system, which also uses artificial intelligence to accelerate the development of autonomous driving solutions.

Elon Musk on NVIDIA’s Alpamayo

Following NVIDIA’s announcement, Tesla community members took to X to ask the CEO about his thoughts on Alpamayo, which seemed like a direct competitor to FSD. The fact that Alpamayo also uses AI to navigate real-world roads resulted in many arguing that the system could spell the end of Tesla’s autonomous driving aspirations. 

In a response on X, Musk acknowledged that NVIDIA’s Alpamayo is doing exactly what Tesla is doing. And while he seriously hopes NVIDIA will succeed, Musk predicted that “they will find is that it’s easy to get to 99% and then super hard to solve the long tail of the distribution.”

FSD’s competition

In later posts, Musk also responded to a post discussing FSD’s progress and its potential competition in the future. In response to a longtime Tesla community member who noted that Alpamayo’s arrival does not mean FSD is doomed, Musk stated that this will indeed be the case. He then noted that, given how Tesla’s rivals operate, solutions like Alpamayo will only exert competitive pressure on Tesla in about 5-6 years, or perhaps longer. 

“You’re right. The actual time from when FSD sort of works to where it is much safer than a human is several years. The legacy car companies won’t design the cameras and AI computers into their cars at scale until several years after that. So this is maybe a competitive pressure on Tesla in 5 or 6 years, but probably longer,” Musk wrote in his response on X. 

Tesla has rolled out a tasty new trade-in deal in the United Kingdom for a limited time, knocking just over the equivalent of $5,000 off of the price of a new or inventory Model 3 or Model Y.

The move, which could be a great way to incentivize sales in the United Kingdom, will take off £3,750 ($5,043) from the price of either of Tesla’s two most popular models, but it’s only valid until March 31, 2026. It requires the order and delivery to take place within the first quarter to qualify for the discount.

NEWS: Tesla UK is offering a £3,750 ($5,043 USD) trade-in bonus towards a new Tesla if you trade in your current car.

Must order and take delivery before March 31, 2026. pic.twitter.com/ZBLoZaLMvT

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) January 2, 2026

The bonus is designed to lower the cost barrier for switching to electric vehicles, stacking the £3,750 on top of the actual trade-in value of any eligible car — this includes petrol, diesel, or even an EV from another automaker. It applies to both new builds and inventory vehicles, including test drive and showroom models, but excludes certified pre-owned Teslas.

This promotion comes amid intensifying competition in the European EV sector. Chinese giant BYD, which snatched the EV sales title from Tesla for 2025, has been aggressively expanding in the European market, undercutting prices and capturing market share with its widely affordable models, including the Seagull.

Tesla’s strategy echoes similar incentives that have been offered in other markets at different times. With UK EV adoption hovering around 20 percent of new car sales in 2025, such deals could accelerate the transition, especially as government mandates phase out fossil fuels by 2035.

There have been enthusiastic reactions to the offer on X, the social media platform owned by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. These incentive programs are few and far between, and are never predictable in terms of availability. However, Tesla could be using this discount to get the year off to a good start.

For potential buyers, the deal underscores Tesla’s agility in a competitive landscape. As EV infrastructure improves and battery tech advances, incentives like this could tip the scales for those who might be more hesitant to make the jump.

With Q1 2026 deliveries ramping up and Tesla coming off a yearly decline in deliveries, the company is undoubtedly looking to push things forward and get the year off to a great start.