Investor's Corner
$TSLA action leading up to Tesla’s reveal of Master Plan, Part Deux
It has not been an easy two weeks for Tesla in the news. Lately all the news has been fairly negative:
- Negative response to the Tesla – SolarCity merger from the great majority of brokerage firms covering Tesla.
- First driver killed in an accident involved with a Tesla vehicle operating on autopilot.
- Start of preliminary evaluation from NHTSA of various Tesla accidents involving autopilot.
- Start of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigation, independent of the NTSA’s inquiry into the collision that killed 2015 Model S driver Joshua Brown.
- Start of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) probe over fatal autopilot crash and whether it was “material” and Tesla was at fault for failing to inform its shareholders prior to the last stock offering.
- Request by Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, for Tesla to “brief Committee staff on the details of this incident, including the technology that was in use at the time, Tesla’s actions in response, and the company’s cooperation with NHTSA.”
That mass of negative reporting would normally kill any stock. But what was the effect on $TSLA for the past couple of weeks? Not much.
We had one week of still higher highs on the stock, followed by flat “compression” last week. This week $TSLA stock is back up again, especially Wednesday ahead of the company’s release of its “Masterplan Part 2”. The stock shot up by $1 in the span of 10 minutes, after CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the plans would be released later in the day.
Now that the Master Plan Part Deux has been published, it will be interesting to see Thursday what will be the response to the Plan from the broad market.
Stock Action
Looking at the $TSLA stock chart for the past couple of weeks, the technicals are still greatly in its favor. The latest Heikin Ashi – MACD “swing” has provided already an upside of over $11 since the MACD crossed to the bulls on June 30. Anyone that pulled the trigger on that day on the buy side is now sitting happy on a nice gain. Anyone trading options is sitting happy on huge gains.
Right now $TSLA stock is all fired up: Heikin Ashi green for 13 out of the past 17 sessions, stock above the 200-day moving average, MACD positive and still crossed to the bulls.
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Source: Wall Street I/O
By the way, the charts from Wall Street I/O have an unique “smart study” that back-calculates all the effects of indicators like the MACD over a period of time. As one can see from the chart above, $TSLA is a wonderful stock for MACD “swing” traders.
Master Plan 2.0
I, like everybody, am anxiously waiting for the street’s response to Tesla’s Master Plan 2.0.
Today Jim Cramer was quoted on TheStreet as saying that “Tesla’s New Master Plan Won’t Matter, the Stock is ‘Heavily Shorted’.”
“It doesn’t really matter — this stock is so heavily shorted ,” Cramer said on Wednesday. “It can’t be borrowed, thank you Doug Kass for giving me that information.”
Q2 2016 Financial Results Date
Lastly, on July 19 Tesla sent a letter to investors indicating that “Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2016, after market close on Wednesday, August 3, 2016. ” According to the letter, “Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.” These are the details of the Q&A Webcast:
-->What: Date of Tesla Q2 2016 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, August 3, 2016
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Webcast: http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
Update: Early morning Thursday pre-market action
$TSLA stock is off by $3 at $225. The initial reaction to the second iteration of the master plan from Wall Street analysts “seems to have failed to assuage investor’s fears”, as reported by TheStreet.com.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla FSD V14.2.1 is earning rave reviews from users in diverse conditions
Tesla FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe begin in Italy, France, and Germany
