News
Volkswagen orders $4B in LiDAR sensors, what Elon Musk calls ‘a fool’s errand’
Volkswagen has reportedly ordered up to $4 billion of LiDAR sensors from Israeli company Innoviz Technologies to help develop self-driving programs for the German automaker. Fresh off of its recent mutual removal of CEO Herbert Diess from the Group’s executive lineup, Volkswagen is putting considerable sums of money into a self-driving strategy that Diess’s industry best friend, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, has called “a fool’s errand.”
Reports from Bloomberg showed Volkswagen’s software unit Cariad purchased $4 billion in sensors, bringing the company’s total order sheet to roughly $6.6 billion. Innoviz CEO Omer Keliaf said there is potential for more purchases and supply deals with VW in the future.
It is the latest move for VW, which recently decided to amicably cut ties with its Chief Executive Herbert Diess, who has spearheaded the company’s involvement in electric vehicles. Electrification efforts often coincide with self-driving projects, and while ICE vehicles also have Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), the future of autonomy is uncertain. It is unknown who will figure it out first, and when they will do it.
With companies committing to all-electric lineups as soon as 2035, it is likely that self-driving vehicles will only be electric as it will take some time to figure out. Company approaches vary from manufacturer to manufacturer, but one thing remains the same: Every automaker is different.
How companies plan to tackle self-driving vehicles is entirely up to them. Tesla, which has been working on its Full Self-Driving fleet for several years, is still attempting to solve various things, like Autosteer on City Streets. It has taken an unorthodox approach to self-driving, axing any radar modules from its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles last May and its flagship Model S and Model X cars in February 2022. While it has tested LiDAR in the past, CEO Elon Musk has stated that anyone relying on the strategy would be “doomed.”
“LiDAR is a fool’s errand,” Musk said at Tesla’s Autonomy Day in 2019. “Anyone relying on lidar is doomed. Doomed…expensive sensors that are unnecessary. It’s like having a whole bunch of expensive appendices. Like, one appendix is bad, well now you have a whole bunch of them, it’s ridiculous, you’ll see.”
Tesla’s Autonomy Day highlights Elon Musk’s vision for a full self-driving future without LiDAR
LiDAR helps utilize lasers to determine the distance between objects. They are expensive, but many companies have gone into the LiDAR path, like Waymo and Cruise, which recently obtained the first-ever permit to carry out driverless ride-sharing services in the San Francisco Bay Area.
This is not to say that Diess was axed because of his friendship with Musk, nor is it to say that Diess was a major proponent against LiDAR due to his relationship with the Tesla CEO. However, it is clear cut that in the game of electric vehicles, there are allies, but there are never friends. After all, it is a race to see who can figure out autonomy first, and Volkswagen has been biting at Tesla’s heels with dreams of eventually surpassing the world’s best-selling electric automaker.
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News
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
