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Volvo Engineer Calls Tesla Autopilot a “Wannabe”

Volvo engineer Trent Victor says the Tesla Autopilot system is a “wannabe” because it cannot avoid a dangerous driving situation without assistance from the driver.

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Tesla Autopilot screen

Trent Victor, senior technical leader of crash avoidance at Volvo, calls the Tesla Autopilot system “an unsupervised wannabe.” At best, he thinks it is a semi-autonomous system masquerading as an autonomous one. “It gives you the impression that it’s doing more than it is.” When it comes to Autopilot, color Trent Victor unimpressed.

Why is he so harsh in his judgment? Because he believes Autopilot conveys the impression that the driver is free to check e-mail or watch a video while the car drives itself. Victor says Volvo believes Level 3 autonomy, in which a driver needs to be ready to take over at a moment’s notice, is an unsafe solution. “Our position on autonomous driving is to keep it quite different so you know when you’re in semi-autonomous and know when you’re in unsupervised autonomous,” he says.

Tesla’s Autopilot semi-autonomous technology gives drivers the ability to take their hands off the wheel while the car effectively drives itself on the highway. Although it is the most advanced semi-autonomous system available in an automobile today, that doesn’t mean it’s a good implementation of technology, according to Victor.

Volvo plans to unveil its Drive Me autonomous car in 2017. The pilot program will feature a Level 4 autonomous car capable of driving like a Tesla on Autopilot, but it will also be able to handle any situation that arises without any human intervention. The driver won’t need to be involved at all. If something goes wrong, the car will be able to stop itself safely and park on the side of the road.

“In our concept, if you don’t take over, if you have fallen asleep or are watching a film, then we will take responsibility still,” says Victor. “We won’t just turn [autonomous mode] off. We take responsibility and we’ll be stopping the vehicle if you don’t take over.”

Victor says that Autopilot as presently configured will simply disengage if a dangerous situation is imminent. The assumption is that the driver will then resume control of the car. But if the driver is distracted, an accident can ensue before the driver realizes that human control is required.

“That’s a really important step in terms of safety, to make people understand that it’s only an option for them take over,” says Victor. Volvo is “taking responsibility both for crash events, and we’re also programming it for extreme events like people walking in the road even where they’re not supposed to be. There’s a massive amount of work put into making it handle a crash or conflict situations.”

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Ultimately, the development of self driving vehicles will be as much about government regulation as it is about differences in corporate philosophy. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration is pondering what those regulations should be. In fact, it is soliciting public comments at a hearing in Silicon Valley today.

Ford, Volvo, Uber, Lyft, and Google have formed a new consortium called The Self Driving Coalition for Safer Streets. It will lobby NHTSA for regulations its members believe will best serve their business interests. It is interesting that Tesla is not part of the coalition. No doubt, Tesla is pursuing its own lobbying campaign.

Although details are sketchy at the moment, there is little doubt that Tesla expects the self driving capabilities of the upcoming Model 3 to represent a major step forward from the Autopilot system available in its cars today. Will it be good enough to meet the objections of people like Trent Victor? We will know in about 18 months.

Source: The Verge

"I write about technology and the coming zero emissions revolution."

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.

SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.

The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.

Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean

Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.

This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.

Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims

Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.

A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.

It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

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Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

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The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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