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Wall St. can’t make up its mind about Tesla: TSLA ups and downs this quarter

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Tesla considering factory in China

Tesla’s portfolio of products and services extends well beyond transportation to energy storage systems and includes solar and energy storage products. As the world’s only vertically integrated energy company, Tesla is truly unique among alternative energy stock offerings. With end-to-end clean energy products — including generation, storage, and consumption — as well as an established a global network of vehicle stores, service centers, and Supercharger stations, Tesla is well situated to accelerate the widespread adoption of its line.

Many people admire Tesla, Inc. for its visionary approach to a sustainable future. Indeed, the company’s most recent SEC 10-K filing spoke to the company’s mission to provide an “intense focus to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transport, ” a business model that differentiates Tesla from other manufacturers.

That report also pointed to possible market uncertainties which could affect the 2017 performance of the Tesla brand.

“We have experienced in the past, and may experience in the future, significant delays or other complications in the design, manufacture, launch and production ramp of new vehicles and other products such as our energy storage products and the solar roof, which could harm our brand, business, prospects, financial condition and operating results.”

As Q1 2017 nears its conclusion, this is a good stopping point to begin to review the ups and downs of the Tesla brand and how stock market analysts have assessed and questioned the resiliency and robust character of the stock.

A global look at TSLA

 

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  • Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) opened at $246.23 on Friday, March 3, 2017. Today, March 6, 2017, that number rose to $251.57 to start the day.
  • Tesla‘s stock had its “hold” rating reiterated by Deutsche Bank AG in a report released on Friday, March 3, 2017. Deutsche Bank AG had a $215.00 target price on the Tesla stock.
  • Eight investment analysts have recently rated the stock with a sell rating, eleven have assigned a hold rating, and twelve have given a buy rating to the company. The stock presently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $256.33.
  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. downgraded the Tesla stock from Neutral to a Sell rating after the company’s December quarter results. Like several other brokerages, the firm cited about cash requirements and worries on operational execution.
  • Tesla has a 12 month low of $178.19 and a 12 month high of $287.39.
  • The firm has a 50-day moving average price of $254.33 and a 200 day moving average price of $215.51.
  • The company’s market cap is $38.17 billion.

Why analysts fail to come to consensus on Tesla stock valuation

As the first car company in a very long time to be homegrown and a real challenge to Detroit’s Big 3 automakers, Tesla experiences numerous influences on its stock value, from supply chain difficulties, to currency fluctuations, competition, and even factors like emotion and superstition. These factors can push the Tesla stock high and low, even within a short period of time. A closely watched stock like Tesla is often accused variously of being overvalued, misunderstood, or overextended.

Yet the demand for Tesla’s Model S and X, as well as initial orders for its more cost effective Model 3 sedan, have continued to support Tesla’s fiscal premises that U.S. and global citizens really want to own cleaner vehicles.

Tesla issued its 2016 Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, February 22, 2017 and reported $0.69 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the Zacks’ consensus estimate of $0.43 by $0.26. As 2017 began, Tesla stocks had accrued a number of positive analyst reports and had continued to rise since the 2016 presidential election. The firm earned $2.29 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $2.21 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $0.87 earnings per share.

Analysts’ estimates of Tesla stock prior to the 2016 annual report

It’s interesting to look back over the past several months and see how variable and uncertain many analysts have been about Tesla. In a cultural climate in which the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression looms large in many people’s consciousnesses, it may be reasonable for many people to be skeptical about Tesla’s value. But, as with any revolutionary change in social thinking, Tesla will likely continue to experience its share of scrutiny as well as celebration as it contributes to a sustainable future.

  • Deutsche Bank AG’s price target suggests a potential downside of 12.68% from the company’s current price as of March 3, 2017.
  • TheStreet raised Tesla Motors from a “d+” rating to a “c-” rating in a research note on Wednesday, January 25th.
  • Robert W. Baird reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and issued a $338.00 price target on shares of Tesla Motors in a research note on Thursday, January 5th.
  • Global Equities Research reaffirmed an “overweight” rating and issued a $385.00 price target on shares of Tesla Motors in a research note on Tuesday, December 6th.
  • Cowen and Company reaffirmed an “underperform” rating and issued a $155.00 price target (down from $160.00) on shares of Tesla Motors in a research note on Sunday, December 4th.
  • Vetr raised Tesla Motors from a “buy” rating to a “strong-buy” rating and set a $203.80 price target on the stock in a research note on Tuesday, November 15th.

 

Carolyn Fortuna is a writer and researcher with a Ph.D. in education from the University of Rhode Island. She brings a social justice perspective to environmental issues. Please follow me on Twitter and Facebook and Google+

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Investor's Corner

Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong

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Credit: @thaichiminh1907/X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) showrooms have been picked clean ahead of the end of the third quarter of the year, as demand looks to be strong and delivery estimates for new vehicles are pushed into late 2026 and early 2027.

Tesla appears to have sold out of many of its Model 3 and Model Y trim levels in the United States, as only the Model Y RWD and Model Y All-Wheel-Drive are available for delivery before the end of the year.

Additionally, many showrooms are either completely empty or void of all but just one demo unit within the buildings themselves in an effort to bolster what could be one of Tesla’s best quarters in vehicle deliveries in recent memory.

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Additionally, when I spoke to the guys at Tesla Mechanicsburg two weeks ago, when I returned the Model Y L, their third hauler of the week had just arrived, and every vehicle on it, along with every vehicle in their delivery lot, was accounted for and had a name attached to it for delivery.

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Tesla saw a 25 percent increase in deliveries in Q2 compared to the same quarter the year before. The vast majority of the 480,126 units it delivered, 467,762 vehicles to be exact, were the Model 3 and Model Y.

In Q3 2025, Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles, once again a figure that was dominated by the company’s two mass-market vehicles. Analysts have unusually wide predictions for this quarter, likely because so many firms missed the Q2 delivery figure by such a substantial margin; Wall Street predicted 408,000 cars, while Tesla delivered 480,000.

Goldman Sachs has Tesla slotted for 435,000 deliveries in Q3, while JPMorgan said it anticipates 482,000. The median guess is about 449,000 deliveries for Q3.

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Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.

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SpaceX turned a heralding moment for Starship into its greatest

Starship reached orbit despite losing an engine, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites on Flight 14.

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SpaceX’s Starship reached orbit for the first time on Monday, and for a few nail-biting minutes it looked like it wouldn’t. During ascent on Flight 14, one of Ship 41’s six Raptor engines shut down early, and SpaceX’s livestream host Dan Huot told viewers the team had decided not to commit to orbit. Minutes later, after what Huot described as a lot of conversation in the control room, the final poll came back in favor, and a roughly 19 second burn of a single Raptor pushed the ship into orbit about 170 miles up.

The reversal matters because SpaceX had written the exit ramp into the mission plan. The company said it would only fire the orbital insertion burn if flight controllers confirmed enough backup hardware remained for the deorbit burn, a condition Teslarati laid out ahead of the flight. Losing an engine was exactly the scenario that rule was built for.

Pressing forward fits Elon Musk’s history. Falcon 1 failed three straight times before its fourth launch reached orbit in 2008, with SpaceX nearly out of money, and Starship was developed by flying prototypes until they broke. What changed this year SpaceX going public, and with $SPCX sliding below its IPO price in July when Flight 13 slipped, the short interest climbed significantly, as Teslarati reported at the time. A Starship potentially lost today with revenue generating next-gen Starlink satellites aboard would have landed directly on shareholders.

That pressure showed up after orbit. SpaceX cut a flight planned to last nearly 10 hours to about three, moving splashdown from west of Chile to the North Pacific near Hawaii. SpaceX gave no reason, though Musk said this month the company was being extremely cautious about debris risk. The single Raptor for deorbit worked, and Ship 41 completed its flip and landing burn before breaking apart in the water, an outcome SpaceX expected. Musk has structured SpaceX’s governance to shield long term bets from market pressure.

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The payload is the bigger business story. Musk posted that all 26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed and are “operating nominally.” Each V3 is rated for about 1 Tbps of downlink and 160 Gbps of uplink, so this single launch adds roughly 26 Tbps, about 10 times what a Falcon 9 load of V2 Mini satellites adds. The V3 is too large for Falcon 9, making Starship the only vehicle that can build out the planned 100,000 satellite constellation, at up to 60 per flight once it reaches routine service. Unlike the 20 V3 units on Flight 13, which reentered on a suborbital path, these will raise their orbits and could begin serving customers within weeks and bring in hundreds of millions of additional dollars in projected Starlink revenue.

SpaceX has already begun winding down Falcon 9 Starlink launches from Florida in favor of Starship. Reported targets put Flight 15 as early as October 19, leaving about three weeks to diagnose Monday’s engine shutdown before the next orbital attempt.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX just got the green light Starship has waited years for

The FAA has cleared Starship Flight 14, setting up SpaceX’s first orbital attempt on Monday.

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SpaceX has cleared the last regulatory hurdle standing between Starship and its first trip to orbit. The Federal Aviation Administration issued the launch license for Starship Flight 14 late Saturday, keeping the mission on track for liftoff Monday, September 28, from Pad 2 at Starbase, Texas.

The 75 minute launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central, and Boca Chica Beach closures are also scheduled for September 29 and 30 as backup dates. This will be Starship’s first revenue generating mission.

The license was the missing piece after SpaceX completed a full wet dress rehearsal with Booster 21 and Ship 41 on September 24. At the time, the company said the flight remained on track pending regulatory approval. Because Flight 14 flies an orbital profile, the FAA had to sign off on a modified license that met its safety, payload and financial responsibility requirements.

Observers combing through the new FAA paperwork also noticed that lightning no longer appears among Starship’s listed launch hazards. If that holds, it matters more for where Starship is headed than for Monday’s attempt. Florida and Louisiana, home to LC-39A and the planned Starbase Louisiana site, see some of the most frequent lightning in the United States.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Flight 14 is the mission SpaceX has been building toward for months. Ship 41 will carry 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational V3 units to be deployed, and attempt roughly six orbits at about 275 kilometers over a flight lasting just under 10 hours. SpaceX says the ship will only perform its orbital insertion burn after flight controllers confirm enough hardware redundancy remains for the deorbit burn at the end of the mission. Ship 41 is targeting a splashdown in the Pacific west of Chile, while Super Heavy will return to the Gulf of Mexico.

The date carries some symbolism as well. A Monday launch would come 10 years and one day after Elon Musk first presented the Interplanetary Transport System, the design that became Starship, at the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico.

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SpaceX has not announced what comes next, but air traffic planning slides reported this week, list Flight 15 no earlier than October 19 and a first Starship launch from LC-39A in Florida no earlier than October 30. Both dates depend on how Monday goes.

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