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Wall St. can’t make up its mind about Tesla: TSLA ups and downs this quarter

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Tesla considering factory in China

Tesla’s portfolio of products and services extends well beyond transportation to energy storage systems and includes solar and energy storage products. As the world’s only vertically integrated energy company, Tesla is truly unique among alternative energy stock offerings. With end-to-end clean energy products — including generation, storage, and consumption — as well as an established a global network of vehicle stores, service centers, and Supercharger stations, Tesla is well situated to accelerate the widespread adoption of its line.

Many people admire Tesla, Inc. for its visionary approach to a sustainable future. Indeed, the company’s most recent SEC 10-K filing spoke to the company’s mission to provide an “intense focus to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transport, ” a business model that differentiates Tesla from other manufacturers.

That report also pointed to possible market uncertainties which could affect the 2017 performance of the Tesla brand.

“We have experienced in the past, and may experience in the future, significant delays or other complications in the design, manufacture, launch and production ramp of new vehicles and other products such as our energy storage products and the solar roof, which could harm our brand, business, prospects, financial condition and operating results.”

As Q1 2017 nears its conclusion, this is a good stopping point to begin to review the ups and downs of the Tesla brand and how stock market analysts have assessed and questioned the resiliency and robust character of the stock.

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A global look at TSLA

 

  • Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) opened at $246.23 on Friday, March 3, 2017. Today, March 6, 2017, that number rose to $251.57 to start the day.
  • Tesla‘s stock had its “hold” rating reiterated by Deutsche Bank AG in a report released on Friday, March 3, 2017. Deutsche Bank AG had a $215.00 target price on the Tesla stock.
  • Eight investment analysts have recently rated the stock with a sell rating, eleven have assigned a hold rating, and twelve have given a buy rating to the company. The stock presently has an average rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $256.33.
  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. downgraded the Tesla stock from Neutral to a Sell rating after the company’s December quarter results. Like several other brokerages, the firm cited about cash requirements and worries on operational execution.
  • Tesla has a 12 month low of $178.19 and a 12 month high of $287.39.
  • The firm has a 50-day moving average price of $254.33 and a 200 day moving average price of $215.51.
  • The company’s market cap is $38.17 billion.

Why analysts fail to come to consensus on Tesla stock valuation

As the first car company in a very long time to be homegrown and a real challenge to Detroit’s Big 3 automakers, Tesla experiences numerous influences on its stock value, from supply chain difficulties, to currency fluctuations, competition, and even factors like emotion and superstition. These factors can push the Tesla stock high and low, even within a short period of time. A closely watched stock like Tesla is often accused variously of being overvalued, misunderstood, or overextended.

Yet the demand for Tesla’s Model S and X, as well as initial orders for its more cost effective Model 3 sedan, have continued to support Tesla’s fiscal premises that U.S. and global citizens really want to own cleaner vehicles.

Tesla issued its 2016 Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, February 22, 2017 and reported $0.69 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the Zacks’ consensus estimate of $0.43 by $0.26. As 2017 began, Tesla stocks had accrued a number of positive analyst reports and had continued to rise since the 2016 presidential election. The firm earned $2.29 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $2.21 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the firm earned $0.87 earnings per share.

Analysts’ estimates of Tesla stock prior to the 2016 annual report

It’s interesting to look back over the past several months and see how variable and uncertain many analysts have been about Tesla. In a cultural climate in which the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression looms large in many people’s consciousnesses, it may be reasonable for many people to be skeptical about Tesla’s value. But, as with any revolutionary change in social thinking, Tesla will likely continue to experience its share of scrutiny as well as celebration as it contributes to a sustainable future.

  • Deutsche Bank AG’s price target suggests a potential downside of 12.68% from the company’s current price as of March 3, 2017.
  • TheStreet raised Tesla Motors from a “d+” rating to a “c-” rating in a research note on Wednesday, January 25th.
  • Robert W. Baird reaffirmed an “outperform” rating and issued a $338.00 price target on shares of Tesla Motors in a research note on Thursday, January 5th.
  • Global Equities Research reaffirmed an “overweight” rating and issued a $385.00 price target on shares of Tesla Motors in a research note on Tuesday, December 6th.
  • Cowen and Company reaffirmed an “underperform” rating and issued a $155.00 price target (down from $160.00) on shares of Tesla Motors in a research note on Sunday, December 4th.
  • Vetr raised Tesla Motors from a “buy” rating to a “strong-buy” rating and set a $203.80 price target on the stock in a research note on Tuesday, November 15th.

 

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Carolyn Fortuna is a writer and researcher with a Ph.D. in education from the University of Rhode Island. She brings a social justice perspective to environmental issues. Please follow me on Twitter and Facebook and Google+

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

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It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

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It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

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We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Elon Musk

Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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tesla showroom
Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

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Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

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“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

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Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk issues dire warning to Tesla (TSLA) shorts

This time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has issued a dire warning to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) short sellers. If they do not exit their position by the time Tesla attains autonomy, pain will follow. 

Musk has shared similar statements in the past, but this time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

Musk’s short warning

The Tesla CEO’s recent statement came as a response to Tesla retail shareholder and advocate Alexandra Merz, who shared a list of the electric vehicle maker’s short-sellers. These include MUFG Securities EMEA, Jane Street Group, Clean Energy Transition LLP, and Citadel Advisors, among others. As per the retail investor, some of Tesla’s short-sellers, such as Banque Pictet, have been decreasing their short position as of late.

In his reply, Elon Musk stated that Tesla shorts are on borrowed time. As per the CEO, TSLA shorts would be wise to exit their short position before autonomy is reached. If they do not, they will be wiped out. “If they don’t exit their short position before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale, they will be obliterated,” Musk wrote in his post.

Tesla’s autonomous program

Tesla short sellers typically disregard the progress that the company is making on its FSD program, which is currently being used in pilot ride-hailing programs in Austin and the Bay Area. While Tesla has taken longer than expected to attain autonomy, and while Musk himself admits to becoming the boy who cried FSD for years, autonomy does seem to be at hand this year. Tesla’s Unsupervised FSD is being used in Robotaxi services, and FSD V14 is poised to be released soon as well.

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Elon Musk highlighted this in a response to X user Ian N, who noted that numerous automakers such as Audi, BMW, Fiat-Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Toyota have all promised and failed in delivering autonomous systems for their vehicles. Thus, Tesla might be very late in the release of its autonomous features, but the company is by far the only automaker that is delivering on its promises today. Musk agreed with this notion, posting that “I might be late, but I always deliver in the end.”

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