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What to look for in Tesla Motors Q1 Financials

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to announce its first quarter earnings report after market close on Wednesday, May 4, 2016.

TSLA reported 4th quarter 2015 earnings of $ -0.87 per share on February 10, 2016. This missed the consensus of $ 0.10 by $ -0.97 of the 16 analysts covering this company. Interestingly that turned out to be the end of a dramatic 42% slide which began on January 1st. Since then TSLA has moved from its lowest point of $141 on that day to roughly $250 per share, a 78% increase in just 3 months. That kind of tells you that TSLA is a stock not for the faint of heart.

Source: WallSt I/O

Source: WallSt I/O

The consensus of the 14 analysts covering TSLA for 1st quarter 2016 is a per share loss of $ -.57, with range estimates of: 0.080 | -0.569 | -1.000 (High | Mean | Low).

Looking ahead at Tesla Q1 earnings summary (source: E-Trade)

$TSLA earnings summary via E-Trade

Based on 20 analysts offering 12-month targets from TSLA, the average price target is $243.95, effectively a zero-move from the current stock price. If you are an “investor” in TSLA stock, the pros tell you that TSLA will not go anywhere in the next 12 months.

$TSLA analysis via TipRanks

$TSLA analysis via TipRanks

So those are the numbers from the pros, but if you still decide that you want to trade TSLA stock, what should you be looking for in the quarterly results and the conference call webcast?

Q1 Vehicle Deliveries

Let’s take a look at a few items from the “Tesla 4th Quarter & Full year 2015 Shareholder Letter”.

In the “Q1 and Full Year 2016 Outlook” section, Tesla states that “we plan to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new Model S and Model X vehicles in 2016. […] In Q1, we plan to grow deliveries 60% year on year to approximately 16,000 vehicles”.

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Source: Tesla Motors

Source: Tesla Motors

We already know that Q1 deliveries did not meet the promised 16,000 units, as that number was actually 14,820, due to “severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February” as provided in a Press Release on April 4, 2016. In the same release, “Tesla reaffirms its full-year delivery guidance [of 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles].”

The missing income due to the delayed Model X vehicles delivery will be partially offset by the initial Model 3 “reservations”. It is quite interesting that reservations opened on March 31, 2016, the last day in the quarter, and at least 125,000 of them may be counted as an additional $125M income in Q1. In the end, guidance on vehicle deliveries for Q2 2016 will be one of the deciding factors on where TSLA stock moves post the Q1 report.

Cash Flow and Margins

In the same Q4 Shareholder Letter, Tesla states that “we expect to generate positive net cash flow and achieve non-GAAP profitability for the full-year 2016”, and “we plan to fund about $1.5 billion in capital expenditures without accessing any outside capital.” These are both very aggressive goals, especially in light of the 400,000+ Model 3 reservations, as of the latest disclosed counts. Elon Musk has already tweeted that he is “definitely going to need to rethink production plans”, which likely means that another factory will be needed to produce the Model 3 in a reasonable timeline that will allow delivery to the majority of the current reservation holders. This more aggressive delivery of Model 3 vehicles as originally envisioned will likely require outside capital for building such factory.

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Since missing the mark on Model X will impact cash flow for Q1, I would expect questions in the conference call asking if the issues have been resolved, and if the missing Model X numbers can be made up in Q2. While cash flow reversed action to the positive for the first time during Q4 2015, with a strong $179M cash flow from core operations, Tesla needs to prove that this behavior will continue in 2016.

Again in the Q1 Shareholder Letter, Tesla states that “Throughout the rest of 2016, Automotive gross margins should continue to increase. […] Model S gross margins should begin to approach 30% and Model X gross margins should be about 25%.” In Q4 gross margins were 20.9% for the Tesla Model S and even a slight increase in margins will be viewed positively by the market. This is a number that will be greatly watched as Tesla needs to prove that it can eventually deliver 500K+ vehicles / year at a profit. Much of the current valuation of Tesla stock is built on this assumption. Accordingly, a drop in margins for Q1 would be viewed very negatively by the market, at least for the short term.

Summarizing, besides vehicle delivery, cash flow and margins will be the other two drivers of the TSLA stock short-term market action after the Q1 report numbers are released.

Live Q&A Webcast

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Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast on May 4 at 2:30pm Pacific Time to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook. Live and replay webcast will be available at http://ir.teslamotors.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=171952 .

Tip of the Week

Starting with today’s posting I’ll be including a “tip of the week.” This may involve covering a trading concept, or recommending a website with tools or information useful to investors and traders of TSLA.

For this week, I am recommending signing up for the free Basic Membership of TipRanks.  With it you can receive free alerts for 1 stock and 1 expert, which is enough for the ones just interested in TSLA stock. Happy trading.

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Disclosure: I currently have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but I may plan to initiate positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Teslarati). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Elon Musk

California snubs Tesla in its newly passed EV incentive that favors Rivian and Lucid

California passed a $135 million EV incentive that rewards Rivian and Lucid while sidelining Tesla

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tesla fremont

California just drew a line in the EV incentive sand to put Tesla on the wrong side of it. The state recently passed a $135 million program offering first-time electric vehicle buyers a direct incentive with no application required, but the rules were written in a way that leaves Tesla at a structural disadvantage compared to Rivian and Lucid.

The program caps eligible vehicles at $50,000 for new EVs and $25,000 for used ones. That pricing threshold rules out a significant portion of Tesla’s lineup, though some lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y configurations would still qualify. California-based automakers are exempt from the price cap entirely, regardless of what their vehicles cost. Rivian, headquartered in Irvine, and Lucid, based in the San Francisco Bay Area, both benefit from that exemption. Rivian’s R2 starts at roughly $45,000 but has versions above the cap. Lucid’s Air and Gravity start at $70,990 and $79,990 respectively, well above any threshold a non-California company would face.

California hits Tesla Cybercab and Robotaxi driverless cars with new law

Tesla built its reputation and a significant portion of its early market share in California, where EV adoption has consistently led the nation. The company operates its original factory in Fremont, California, and the state was home to Tesla’s headquarters for most of its existence. That changed in 2021 when Tesla moved its corporate headquarters to Austin, Texas. Since then, the relationship between the company and California Governor Gavin Newsom has been openly adversarial, with Musk and Newsom trading public criticism on multiple occasions.

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California’s EV incentive landscape has shifted repeatedly in recent years, and Tesla has previously lost eligibility for state-level programs as its vehicles exceeded income-adjusted price thresholds. The federal $7,500 EV tax credit, which Tesla models have qualified for and lost depending on policy cycles, is no longer available after it expired without renewal, making state-level programs more meaningful to buyers than they have been in years.

The practical impact for buyers is more nuanced than the headline suggests. California residents purchasing a Tesla under $50,000 for the first time can still access the incentive. But the exemption written for California-based manufacturers is a structural advantage that rewards where a company plants its headquarters flag rather than where it builds its products, and Tesla moved that flag to Texas.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX’s newest logo confirms everything about what it’s become

SpaceX officially absorbed xAI under the SpaceXAI brand, completing the largest private merger in history.

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SpaceX-Ax-4-mission-iss-launch-date

SpaceX made its corporate transformation official in May 2026 when Elon Musk posted on X that xAI would cease to exist as a standalone company. “xAI will be dissolved as a separate company, so it will just be SpaceXAI, the AI products from SpaceX,” he wrote.

A new SpaceXAI logo was announced today, visually embedding the xAI letters inside the SpaceX identity, which can be seen as a deliberate design choice that signals the merger is not a partnership but a full absorption and XAi a core function of the same company. The same way Starlink is not a separate brand but a SpaceX product. The announcement closed the loop on a process that began February 2, 2026, when SpaceX acquired xAI in the largest private merger in history, valued at $1.25 trillion. SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion.


The reason SpaceX bought xAI was stated plainly by Musk at the time of the deal: to build orbital data centers. SpaceX had simultaneously filed with the FCC to launch up to one million satellites designed to function as AI compute nodes in low Earth orbit, escaping what Musk described as the energy constraints limiting AI development on Earth.

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xAI provided the AI software stack, with Grok, the X platform, and the Colossus supercomputer infrastructure in Memphis with over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs, while SpaceX provided the rockets, Starlink, and the capital base to fund it. The two companies needed each other. xAI was burning $2.5 billion in losses on $250 million in revenue. SpaceX was generating an estimated $8 billion in profit on $15 billion in revenue and needed an AI narrative to command the valuation it was targeting for its IPO.

SpaceXAI just launched into your kitchen with their new app

What SpaceX has done, regardless of how the orbital AI vision ultimately plays out, is walk into a public market as something no company has been before: a rocket manufacturer, satellite internet provider, AI software company, social media platform, and supercomputer operator under one ticker. Whether that combination is worth $2 trillion depends entirely on which of those businesses you believe in most.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla challenges startups to score a gig inside its most advanced European factory

Tesla is challenging startups to bring their best battery tech directly to Gigafactory Berlin.

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Tesla has issued an open challenge to startups across Europe, inviting them to bring their best battery technology directly to the floor of Gigafactory Berlin. The program, called the JUNI x Tesla Battery Cell Giga Challenge, opened applications this month with a deadline of July 24, 2026, and is targeting startups with solutions that can make battery cell manufacturing faster, cheaper, safer, and more scalable at an industrial level.

The timing of the challenge is directly tied to Tesla’s most aggressive European battery investment yet. On May 12, 2026, Giga Berlin plant manager André Thierig announced a $250 million investment to scale the factory’s annual 4680 cell production capacity from 8 GWh to 18 GWh, more than doubling the previous target set just months earlier in December 2025. Thierig confirmed the expansion on X, saying the investment “will enable 18 GWh of annual 4680 cell production and create more than 1,500 new jobs.” Combined with a previously announced battery investment at the Grunheide site now approaches $1.2 billion.


The challenge is looking specifically for startups with proven solutions across five categories: materials, equipment, operations, automation, and artificial intelligence. Applications are screened directly by Tesla’s cell manufacturing team in Grunheide, and the strongest submissions move through technical discussions, a pitch day in front of Tesla stakeholders, and potentially a paid pilot project with the cell team. Tesla is not looking for ideas at concept stage. The program requires applicants to demonstrate working prototypes, test data, or prior pilots before being considered.

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The historical context matters here. Elon Musk first announced plans for what he called the world’s largest battery cell production facility alongside the Giga Berlin car factory back in 2020, targeting up to 250 GWh of annual capacity. Those plans were shelved in 2022 when Tesla shifted its battery investment focus to the United States to take advantage of Inflation Reduction Act incentives. The revival of cell production at Giga Berlin, now backed by over $1 billion in committed capital, represents a return to an ambition that was set aside for three years. As Teslarati has reported, the 4680 format is central to Tesla’s long-term cost reduction strategy across vehicles, energy storage, including the Tesla Semi and Cybercab.

By opening the challenge to outside startups, Tesla is acknowledging that reaching 18 GWh at Grunheide will require technology it does not currently have in-house, and it is willing to pay for the right solutions. For a startup in the battery supply chain, a paid pilot with Tesla’s European cell team is as close to a direct commercial path as the industry offers.

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