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Tesla’s full self-driving technology is ‘undervalued,’ says Morgan Stanley

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It appears that some of Tesla’s investors might not be seeing the big picture when it comes to the innate value of the company’s full self-driving technology. This was a point highlighted by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a note on Tuesday, where he argued that Tesla’s capabilities and progress in the autonomous vehicle market might very well be underappreciated.

Taking a stance that is notably different from his bearish note earlier this month, when he insisted that Tesla is no longer seen as a growth story, Jonas’ new note struck a more optimistic tone. “We believe investors underappreciate/undervalue Tesla’s Autonomy business. Many investors to whom we speak do not explicitly include Tesla’s Autonomy business in their valuation of the company,” he stated.

The analyst also listed down other critical areas of Tesla’s business that are “underappreciated” by investors. Among these are Tesla’s vast infrastructure of charging stations, the company’s solar and energy storage products, a potential business of selling EV batteries to other carmakers, and the opportunities presented by the Tesla Semi. Jonas noted that each of these areas has “potential commercial value beyond the manufacturing of Tesla vehicles.”

While Jonas’ change of heart presents an easy target for criticism, it is difficult to argue against the Morgan Stanley analyst’s points about the potential of Tesla’s autonomous driving solutions. Other full self-driving firms such as Waymo and GM Cruise, after all, enjoy healthy valuations from the financial sector. GM Cruise, for example, lags behind Tesla and Waymo in real-world miles, but the unit is nonetheless valued at $19 billion as of May 2019, following a $1.15 billion funding round from investors such a SoftBank and Honda. Jonas, for his part, estimates Tesla’s self-driving technology to be worth around $8.5 billion.

Among the companies that are currently pursuing full self-driving technology, Tesla is arguably the one with the most real-world data. During his presentation at Tesla’s Autonomy Day, Director of AI Andrej Karpathy pointed out that when it comes to training artificial intelligence for autonomous driving, there is simply no substitute for miles that are driven in the real world. This is something that companies such as Waymo and GM Cruise inherently lack, due to their limited number of vehicles on the road.

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With the rollout of its custom Hardware 3 computer, Tesla is currently making a serious play for full self-driving. CEO Elon Musk has even noted that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite should become “feature complete” by the end of 2019. Musk has also suggested that the Tesla Network’s autonomous Robotaxi service could be ready by next year, pending regulators’ approval. If Tesla can meet these aggressive timetables, then investors in the company would likely find it very difficult to not account for the value of the electric car maker’s full self-driving technology.

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +1.09% at $215.19 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla investors are ditching Charles Schwab after its vote against Musk comp plan

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils futuristic Cybertruck in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Teslarati)

Tesla investors are ditching Charles Schwab as their brokerage after the firm said earlier this week that it would vote against CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package.

Several high-profile Tesla influencers are speaking out against Charles Schwab, saying its decision to vote against the plan that would retain Musk as CEO and give him potentially more voting power if he can achieve the tranches set by the company’s Board of Directors.

The Tesla community recognized that Schwab is one firm that tends to vote against Musk’s compensation plans, as they also voted against the CEO’s 2018 pay package, which was passed by shareholders but then denied by a Delaware Chancery Court.

Schwab’s move was recognized by investors within the Tesla community and now they are speaking out about it:

At least six of Charles Schwab’s ETFs have voted against Tesla’s Board recommendation to support the compensation plan for Musk. The six ETFs represent around 7 million Tesla $TSLA shares.

Jason DeBolt, an all-in Tesla shareholder, summarized the firm’s decision really well:

As a custodian of ETF shares, your fiduciary duty is to vote in shareholders’ best interests. For a board that has delivered extraordinary returns, voting against their recommendations doesn’t align with retail investors, Tesla employees, or the leadership we invested to support. If Schwab’s proxy voting policies don’t reflect shareholder interests, my followers and I will move our collective tens of millions in $TSLA shares (or possibly hundreds of millions) to a broker that does, via account transfer as soon as this week.”

Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s pay package on Thursday at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in Austin, Texas.

It seems more likely than not that it will pass, but investors have made it clear they want a decisive victory, as it could clear the path for any issues with shareholder lawsuits in the future, as it did with Musk’s past pay package.

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Elon Musk

Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund votes against Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award

The fund is managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), and it holds a 1.14% stake in Tesla valued at about $11.6 billion.

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund has voted against Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, which will be ultimately decided at Tesla’s upcoming annual shareholder meeting. 

The fund is managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), and it holds a 1.14% stake in Tesla valued at about $11.6 billion.

NBIM’s opposition

NBIM confirmed it had already cast its vote against Musk’s pay package, citing concerns over its total size, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk, as noted in a CNBC report. The fund acknowledged Musk’s leadership of the EV maker, and it stated that it will continue to seek dialogue with Tesla about its concerns. 

“While we appreciate the significant value created under Mr. Musk’s visionary role, we are concerned about the total size of the award, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk- consistent with our views on executive compensation. We will continue to seek constructive dialogue with Tesla on this and other topics,” NBIM noted.

The upcoming Tesla annual shareholder meeting will decide whether Musk should receive his proposed 2025 performance award, which would grant him large stock options over the next decade if Tesla hits several ambitious milestones, such as a market cap of $8.5 trillion. The 2025 performance award will also increase Musk’s stake in Tesla to 25%.

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Elon Musk and NBIM

Elon Musk’s proposed 2025 CEO performance award has proven polarizing, with large investors split on whether the executive should be given a pay package that, if fully completed, would make him a trillionaire. 

Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis have recommended that shareholders vote against the deal, and initiatives such as the “Take Back Tesla” campaign have rallied investors to oppose the proposed performance award. On the other hand, other large investors such as ARK Invest and the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) have urged shareholders to approve the compensation plan. 

Interestingly enough, this is not the first time that Musk and NBIM have found themselves on opposing sides. Last year, NBIM voted against reinstating Musk’s 2018 performance award, which had already been fully accomplished but was rescinded by a Delaware judge.

Later reports shared text messages between Musk and NBIM Chief Executive Nicolai Tangen, who was inviting the CEO to a dinner in Oslo. Musk declined the invitation, writing, “When I ask you for a favor, which I very rarely do, and you decline, then you should not ask me for one until you’ve done something to make amends. Friends are as friends do.”

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Investor's Corner

Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders

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Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

Michael Dell has weighed in on Elon Musk’s controversial 2025 CEO Performance Award, offering a grounded perspective amidst the noise surrounding the pay package today.

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders. Musk would quite literally receive no compensation if he fails to achieve his targets.

Dell emphasizes results over rhetoric

Dell shared his thoughts about Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award in a post on X.“Vote FOR Elon Musk. The award is only achieved IF he hits exceptionally ambitious market-cap and operational milestones—if he falls short, he gets nothing,” Dell wrote in his post. 

“If he succeeds, shareholders will win big through unprecedented value creation, and he will earn added voting rights to continue driving Tesla’s long-term vision.”

Musk replied with a short “Thanks Michael,” acknowledging Dell’s support. Dell’s framing cuts through the debate surrounding Musk’s compensation, as he simply focused on the incentive structure’s risk-reward balance.

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Musk’s ambitious pay package

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award requires Tesla’s market capitalization to rise from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion within a decade. This would make Tesla more valuable than any company in history.

Apart from this, Tesla’s operating profit must also grow from $17 billion to $400 billion annually. Musk must also lead the company to several product-related milestones, such as 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million operating Robotaxis.

So far, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS have urged shareholders to vote against the plan. Some prominent investors, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, however, have voiced strong support for the plan. Wood called Musk “the most productive human being on earth,” arguing that his vision and ability to attract talent are central to Tesla’s success.

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