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SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and landing could be more than a year away

Falcon Heavy launched for the third time ever on June 25th, successfully recovering 2 of 3 boosters and placing 24 satellites in their proper orbits. Falcon Heavy Flight 4 could be more than 16 months away. (SpaceX)

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According to comments made by US Air Force officials prior to SpaceX’s latest Falcon Heavy launch, the payload assigned to the military’s first fully-certified Falcon Heavy has been swapped with another, although the mission’s late-2020 launch target remains relatively unchanged.

This new information comes on the heels of the June 25th launch of Space Test Program 2 (STP-2), SpaceX’s third successful Falcon Heavy mission and a huge milestone for the rocket’s future as a competitive option for US military launches. Perhaps most importantly, it confirms – barring a surprise launch contract or internal Starlink mission – that Falcon Heavy’s next (and fourth) launch is unlikely to occur until late next year, a gap of at least 15-17 months.

Announced roughly four months after Falcon Heavy’s inaugural February 2018 launch debut, the USAF contracted with SpaceX to launch the ~6350 kg (14,000 lb) AFSPC-52 satellite no earlier than (NET) September 2020. In February 2019, Department of Defense contract announcements revealed that SpaceX had been awarded three military launch contracts, two for the National Reconnaissance Office (NROL-85 & NROL-87) and one for the USAF (AFSPC-44), all tentatively scheduled to launch in 2021.

First reported by Spaceflight Now, Col. Robert Bongiovi – director of the launch enterprise systems directorate at the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (AFSMC) – recently indicated that AFSPC-44 – not AFSPC-52 – is now scheduled to be the US military’s first post-certification Falcon Heavy launch. 52 and 44 have essentially swapped spots, with AFSPC-44 moving forward to NET Q4 (fall) 2020 while AFSPC-52 has been delayed to NET Q2 (spring) 2021.

Falcon Heavy lifts off from Pad 39A for the third time ever. (Tom Cross)

The trouble with launch gaps

Although Bongiovi did not explicitly state that AFSPC-44 will be SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch, there are no publicly-disclosed missions set to launch on the rocket in the interim. That could theoretically change, especially if SpaceX has plans to launch the massive rocket in support of an internal Starlink mission or even something more exotic, but the loss of both Block 5 center core B1055 and B1057 means that the company will have to build an entirely new center core.

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy lead times are far superior to competitor ULA’s Delta IV Heavy production line, but the process of manufacturing new center cores is still quite lengthy. Critically, Falcon Heavy Block 5 center cores require strengthened octawebs, custom interstages, and propellant tanks that are significantly thicker than those used on Falcon 9. For all intents and purposes, a center core is a totally different rocket relative to a Falcon 9 booster, the latter being SpaceX’s primary focus at the company’s assembly line-style Hawthorne factory. It’s theoretically possible for a dedicated Falcon Heavy center core build to be expedited or leapfrogged forward in the production queue, but most long-lead Falcon 9 booster hardware physically cannot be redirected to speed up center core production.

An overview of SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory floor in early 2018. (SpaceX)

Unless SpaceX was already in the process of building a new center core prior B1057’s unsuccessful landing attempt, it’s safe to assume that the next custom Falcon Heavy booster is unlikely to be completed until early 2020, if not later. In theory, this means that Falcon Heavy could be dormant for no less than 16 months between STP-2 and its next launch. Traditionally, that sort of lengthy gap between launches has been frowned upon by NASA, ULA, and oversight groups like GAO. If a given rocket doesn’t launch for a year or more, it can potentially pose a risk to reliability and raise costs as its production and launch teams have no satisfactory way to fully preserve their technical expertise.

This can be compared to attempting to become an expert at a musical instrument while only having access to said instrument one or two months a year, essentially impossible. In fact, at one point, NASA hoped to require its Space Launch System (SLS) rocket be able to launch no less than once per year, partly motivated by a desire to mitigate some of the deterioration that can follow extremely low launch cadences. Years later, financial constraints and years upon years of delays and budget overruns have made such a cadence effectively impossible for SLS/Orion, but the fact remains that launching a rocket just once every 18-24 months is likely to inflate both costs and risks.

The first Block 5 version of Falcon Heavy prepares for its launch debut.
Falcon Heavy Flight 2, April 2019. (SpaceX)
Falcon Heavy Flight 3, June 2019. Both side boosters (left and right) are flight-proven and launch as part of Flight 2 just ~75 days prior. (SpaceX)

Thankfully, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy could scarcely be more different than NASA’s SLS and the retired Space Shuttle it derives most of its hardware from. Even if all things are held equal and not flying a Falcon Heavy center core for 16+ months increases risk and cost, center cores are still heavily derived from Falcon 9 booster technology, including plumbing, avionics, attitude control thrusters, Merlin 1D engines, landing legs, and launch facilities.

Furthermore, the center core is just one of five distinct assemblies that make up a given Falcon Heavy. Both side boosters are effectively Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters with nose cones instead of interstages and slight modifications to support booster attachment hardware, while the upper stage and payload fairing are the same for all Falcon launches. In other words, SpaceX’s workforce will continue to build, launch, land, and reuse dozens of Falcon 9 boosters – as well as upper stages payload fairings – between now and Falcon Heavy Flight 4, even if it’s NET Q4 2020. In a worst-case scenario, SpaceX production and launch staff will be unfamiliar and inexperienced with maybe 20% of Falcon Heavy – at least in a very rough sense. Even then, much of that unfamiliarity may still be tempered by the fact that Falcon Heavy center cores share a large amount of commonality with the Falcon 9 first stages SpaceX’s workforce will remain deeply familiar with.

Indeed, Falcon Heavy’s second launch has already demonstrated this to some extent, occurring without issue more than 14 months after the rocket’s inaugural launch. It seems that the only real loss incurred by a ~16-month delay between Flights 3 and 4 will be having to wait another year (or more) to witness Falcon Heavy’s next launch.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Robotaxis are already making roads safer, Waymo report reveals

Waymo Driver is already reducing severe crashes and enhancing the safety of vulnerable road users.

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Waymo hires former Tesla Executive 
(Credit: Waymo)

Industry leaders such as Elon Musk have always maintained that autonomous robotaxis will make roads safer. A recent blog post from Waymo about the safety of its self-driving cars suggests that Musk’s sentiments are on point.

Way More Safety

Waymo Driver is already reducing severe crashes and enhancing the safety of vulnerable road users. As per a new research paper set for publication in the Traffic Injury Prevention Journal, Waymo Driver had outperformed human drivers in safety, particularly for vulnerable road users (VRUs).

Over 56.7 million miles, compared to human drivers, Waymo Driver achieved a 92% reduction in pedestrian injury crashes. It also saw 82% fewer crashes with injuries with cyclists and 82% fewer crashes with injuries with motorcyclists. Waymo Driver also slashed injury-involving intersection crashes by 96%, which are a leading cause of severe road harm for human drivers. Waymo Driver saw 85% fewer crashes with suspected serious or worse injuries as well.

What They Are Saying

Mauricio Peña, Waymo’s Chief Safety Officer, was optimistic about Waymo Driver’s results so far. “It’s exciting to see the real positive impact that Waymo is making on the streets of America as we continue to expand. This research reinforces the growing evidence that the Waymo Driver is playing a crucial role in reducing serious crashes and protecting all road users,” the Chief Safety Officer noted.

Jonathan Adkins, Chief Executive Officer at Governors Highway Safety Association, also noted that Waymo’s results are very encouraging. “It’s encouraging to see real-world data showing Waymo outperforming human drivers when it comes to safety. Fewer crashes and fewer injuries — especially for people walking and biking — is exactly the kind of progress we want to see from autonomous vehicles,” Adkins stated.

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Tesla hints at June 1 launch of Robotaxi platform in Austin

Tesla has hinted at a potential launch date for the Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.

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tesla robotaxi app on phone
Credit: Tesla

Tesla just dropped its biggest hint yet about the potential launch date of its Robotaxi ride-hailing platform in Austin, Texas, shedding more light on when to expect it to take off.

In preparation for the ride-hailing service to launch, Tesla has been in talks with the City of Austin for months. It has also spent recent months bolstering its Full Self-Driving suite, aiming for it to handle initially supervised rides with the use of teleoperators to keep things safe and dependable, at least early on.

The company has also said that it expects the Robotaxi service, which will drive passengers in Tesla Model Y vehicles to start, to launch in Austin in June. However, Tesla has not given an exact date.

Now, Tesla is hinting that Robotaxi could launch on June 1, based on a very vague X post it published on May 1:

Of course, this is extremely speculative. However, it’s the first time Tesla has made any suggestions about a potential launch date, so it’s worth taking it seriously.

While the automaker has often missed timelines in the past, most notably the launch of a “feature-complete” Full Self-Driving platform, this is the first time we’ve seen Tesla be so adamant and truly reiterate a target date.

Tesla has not shied away from this June date for the Robotaxi launch yet, something that is worth noting as we move closer to June. All signs point toward Tesla being able to come through on this timeline, and it could be one of its biggest accomplishments yet on the grand scheme of things. The Robotaxi rollout will be controlled and small to start, the company noted on its most recent Earnings Call.

CEO Elon Musk said:

“The team and I are laser-focused on bringing robotaxi to Austin in June. Unsupervised autonomy will first be solved for the Model Y in Austin.”

At first, it also seems as if the first Robotaxi rides will be available to a select group, as Musk said the ability to order one will not be available to the general public until later in the month. He also said the initial fleet will be between 10 and 20 vehicles:

“Yeah. We’re still debating the exact number to start off on day one, but it’s, like, I don’t know, maybe 10 or 20 vehicles on day one. And watch it carefully. They scale it up rapidly after that. So, we want to make sure that you’re paying very close attention the first time this happens. But, yeah, you will be able to — end of end of June or July, just go to Austin and order a Tesla for autonomous drive.”

While the June 1st date of the Robotaxi launch is extremely speculative, Tesla seems convinced that its vehicles could already handle this task. It would be something to see them come through on this date, especially on the first day of the month.

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Is the affordable Tesla Model Y’s features hiding in plain sight?

Variants of the Model Y that could bring down the vehicle’s price would likely be appreciated by consumers.

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Credit: Joey Klender/Teslarati

Just recently, rumors emerged in China suggesting that a more affordable Tesla Model Y variant internally dubbed the ”E80” would be produced in Giga Shanghai this May. A look at Tesla’s current affordable vehicles suggests that the features of the upcoming Model Y variant may be hiding in plain sight.

Model Y “E80” Rumors

Reports from Chinese publications suggested that the affordable Model Y “E80” will be a stripped down version of the new Model Y. Thus, the vehicle may be equipped with smaller wheels, single-layer windows on its sides, no rear display, half the number of speakers, single-color ambient interior lighting, fabric seats with no heating or ventilation functions, and a manual trunk.

These reductions, the rumors suggested, would allow Tesla China to offer the Model Y “E80” at an affordable price of 190,000–210,000 ($26,000–$28,800). Other rumors suggested that the vehicle will be priced even more aggressively, at around 150,000-170,000 yuan ($20,500-$23,300). 

Hiding in Plain Sight

What is quite interesting about the Model Y “E80” rumors is the fact that Tesla has actually released stripped-down versions of its vehicles to make them more affordable. Based on the features that were bundled in these vehicles, one could make an inference about the features that the Model Y “E80” will have, at least considering its rumored aggressive pricing.

In August last year, Tesla Mexico launched a variant of the Model 3 sedan that is quite unlike the vehicle’s base variant in the United States. The vehicle was priced at MXD 749,000 (USD 40,000), which was MXD 50,000 (USD 2,670) lower than the Model 3 RWD’s previous price in Mexico, which stood at MXD 799,000 (USD42,730).

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With its more affordable price, Tesla Mexico’s base Model 3 featured textile seats instead of vegan leather, acoustic glass only on its front windows, and no secondary display for rear passengers. Its ambient lights were also limited to just white. Lastly, the vehicle did not have heated or cooled seats or a heated steering wheel. These reductions are very similar to the rumored feature set of the Model Y “E80” in China.

The Tesla Cybertruck Long Range Rear Wheel Drive is another base variant that could provide hints at the affordable Model Y’s features. Similar to Tesla Mexico’s base Model 3, the Cybertruck LR RWD features textile seats and no second-row display. Interestingly enough, the Cybertruck LR RWD is $10,000 cheaper than the Cybertruck. That’s similar to the rumored price difference between the new Model Y in China and the vehicle’s supposed affordable “E80” variant.

Still Compelling Enough?

Perhaps the biggest question at this point would be if the rumored Model Y “E80,” even with its stripped-out features, will be compelling enough for consumers. While such concerns are valid, one must not forget that the Model Y is still a premium vehicle.

Thus, variants of the Model Y that could bring down the vehicle’s price would likely be appreciated by consumers. The fact that the rumored “E80” will be produced in Giga Shanghai speaks volumes as well, especially since China is home to the most competitive EV market in the world. Giga Shanghai also exports vehicles to several territories worldwide.

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