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LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2019 earnings call updates

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) second-quarter earnings call comes at a pivotal point for the electric car maker. Following a challenging first quarter that saw the company weighed down by lower-than-expected production and delivery figures, Q2 proved to be a comeback for Tesla. Seemingly highlighting CEO Elon Musk’s statement that there is absolutely no demand problem with its electric cars, Tesla set all-time records by producing a total of 87,048 vehicles and delivering around 95,200 in both the United States and the international markets.

Tesla announced a net loss of $408 million for the second quarter, translating to a loss of $2.31 per share. The company also listed $6.3 billion in revenue, which is below Wall Street expectations.

For today’s earnings call, Elon Musk and Tesla’s executives are expected to address questions surrounding the company’s financials and CEO Elon Musk’s goal of returning to profitability in the third and fourth quarter. Updates on the company’s production forecast for 2019 are also expected to be discussed. Other inquiries surrounding upcoming vehicles such as the Tesla Pickup Truck, projects such as Gigafactory 3, and features such as Full Self-Driving will likely be addressed as well.

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q2 2019 earnings call. Fellow Teslarati reporter Dacia Ferris and I will be updating this article in real-time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story. 

Dacia 16:35 PT – Aaaand done! Maybe less script reading next time, guys. 😉

Simon 16:35 PT – And that’s a wrap! Thanks for joining us in today’s earnings call, everyone. Till the next!

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Dacia 16:34 PT – “Is there anything silly that we’re doing that we should fix?” Elon asked during his trip to China. He was told that parts made in China were being shipped to New Jersey, then back to China. That’s a silly thing to be stopped, he said.

Dacia 16:33 PT – Parts availability? Moving parts from warehouses and moving them to the service centers addresses the availability issue, Elon says. He compares the stocking to a grocery store keeping Cocoa Puffs on the shelves. Anything used more frequently than every 6 weeks is kept local at the centers.

Dacia 16:31 PT – “I think at the end of the day, regulators will answer to the public,” Elon comments regarding European FSD permissions.

Simon 16:30 PT – RBC Capital Markets asks if Elon Musk expects to offer the full FSD suite in Europe and China, considering regulations? Elon notes that yes, he is expecting a worldwide FSD release. EU will likely be an exception though, as the region’s regulations are quite notable. 

Dacia 16:29 PT – Supercharging is incredibly important… You can’t just have like 80% of a journey, you have to have 100%. Driving is freedom to travel, so you have to be able to drive there to have that freedom, Elon remarks as an additional component that’s important for sales.

Dacia 16:28 PT – “We’re rolling out service centers like crazy. Service centers are the key to sales, not retail locations,” Elon says.

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Simon 16:27 PT – New Street Research asks about Tesla’s initiatives at maintaining an online-only business model. Elon notes that Tesla’s word of mouth is formidable, and that’s really what drives sales. A retail location is like a viral seed in an area, growing organically. They’re not needed, but they’re more like an accelerant, Elon says. 

Dacia 16:25 PT – “I think there’s too much focus on S and X… They’re nice, but without them, we couldn’t spell S3XY…,” Elon jokes. “That’s A reason to continue selling S and X… They’ll be like 4-5% of Model 3 and Y… They’re not all that important in the long term.”

Simon 16:25 PT – Tesla’s story is fundamentally the Model 3 and Model Y. As for the Model S and X, well, Elon jokingly notes that they’re there *partly* to make sure that the lineup spell “S3XY.” That has to be kept. 

Dacia 16:22 PT – Battery expectations? “We don’t expect to be self-constrained in China for the next year,” Elon says. “We have agreement in place…we’re good for the next year,” Drew concurs. “In some respects ‘Battery Day’ will be ‘Master Plan, Part 3’,” Elon says.

Simon 16:21 PT – Oppenheimer asks about Gigafactory 3’s battery supplier. Elon notes that while nothing is finalized yet, Tesla does not expect to be cell constrained in Gigafactory 3 for at least a year. Drew adds that Tesla has agreements in place to ensure that the initial Model 3 production run in the Shanghai-based facility will be without complications. 

Simon 16:20 PT – Credit Suisse asks about Tesla’s ZEV credits. Is there any quarterly cadence to think about this? Is this going to European automakers? Zach notes that the ZEV Sales credits are a combination of short-term and long-term deals. “We generally try not to run the business based on regulatory credits revenue.” Elon adds that these credits are a relatively small part of Tesla’s revenue. 

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Dacia 16:16 PT – “Model S and X parts warehousing is taking up space in Fremont, and it’s not needed. Can use space for Model Y needs, Elon comments regarding space constraints at Tesla’s factory. “Just the rate of improvement, which is not slowing down, has been incredible.” The balance of S and X per week is the expected output from Fremont soon, according to Elon. Totaling 10k.

Simon 16:15 PT – JMP Securities asks if there is some potential to reconfigure Fremont’s floor space considering that the Model S and X are single shift. Elon agrees, stating that these spaces that are being freed will be allotted for Model Y production. Fremont’s improvement is radical, to the point where one can get lost in the factory every few months due to the sheer number of changes happening inside. 

Dacia 16:14 PT – “From a core financial health standpoint… Tesla’s fiscal discipline is dramatically better than times in the past,” Elon says.

Dacia 16:10 PT – “Elon, do you believe M3 is cannibalizing S and X sales? Why else would demand levels step down?” Elon says they’re not quite sure themselves, some cannibalization possible. There’s also market expectation that there’s a refresh of S, X coming, which he’s emphasized is NOT the case. People don’t realize how much better the S and X are now… We need to address that communications issue, Elon says in reference to lower sales compared to M3.

Dacia 16:08 PT – Demand in Q3 will exceed Q2, Elon says. “I think we’ll see some acceleration of that…I think Q4 will be very strong…Q over Q improvements… Q3 and Q4 next year will be incredible.”

Simon 16:07 PT – Bernstein asks a question is Musk is confident that Q3 deliveries can still improve moving forward. Elon notes that so far, demand in Q3 is exceeding that of Q2. He also noted that Q4 will be “very strong.” “Expect quarter-to-quarter improvements,” Musk said, stating that Q1 2020 will be “tough,” and so will Q2 2020 be, though to a lesser degree. Zach explains that in the auto business, there’s this thing called seasonality.

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Dacia 16:06 PT – Any updates on Giga China? Model 3 production? Seen anything RE order flow and demand? Elon says long term demand for M3 in greater China is about 5,000 per week. Globally, perhaps 15,000 Model 3 per week, as per Elon’s personal estimate. 

Simon 16:05 PT – Wolfe Research asks about Gigafactory 3’s targets in China. Elon won’t go into details, though he states that he believes the long-term demand for the Model 3 in the greater China region will be around 5,000 a week. When asked if Tesla would source cars to Europe from China, Elon stated that Europe’s vehicles will be coming from Fremont instead, at least until Gigafactory 4 in Europe is online. 

Dacia 16:04 PT – Any improvements on Gigafactory capacity? “We have seen improvements…we’re in the high 20s in Gigawatt hours and that’s increasing,” Drew responds.

Dacia 16:03 PT – Customer service as a personal priority – what steps are you taking? Elon cites current real-time service updates and increases in service centers and mobile service. Elon also discusses service visits. “A lot of service visits are just questions about the car,” Elon says. “Our number one question is how to use the Autopilot.” “How do I turn it on?”

Simon 15:58 PT – The question and answer portion begins. Here’s one for the battery and powertrain day. Elon notes that the event will be a comprehensive review of Tesla’s battery tech and manufacturing, including a roadmap for a terawatt-hour per year rate. 

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Dacia 15:57 PT – As the FSD features roll out, demand will increase. Right now, it’s expectedly limited and the full value isn’t completely realized, Elon says.

Simon 15:51 PT – Elon notes that CTO JB Straubel will be transitioning to an advisory role in the company. JB explains that he is not disappearing out of lack of confidence in the company. He has total confidence in Drew Baglino, who will be taking his place as Tesla’s CTO. JB notes that he is excited to keep working on the company’s new technologies, though Elon sounds notably emotional while reminiscing the CTO’s time with Tesla. They go way back, after all. 

Simon 15:50 PT – Zach addresses the elephant in the room. It is easy to forget that Tesla is playing a long-term game, he says. The Model 3 was a bet, and it’s starting to pay off. Gigafactory 3 is about to be complete. Gigafactory 4 in Europe is underway. Model Y is coming for the automotive market’s most lucrative segment. Indeed, it’s a long-term play. 

Simon 15:45 PT – CFO Zach Kirkhorn takes the stage. He runs down Tesla’s accomplishments, highlighting the record deliveries in vehicles and increasing volume of energy projects. “Adjusting for the impact of credits, Automotive gross margins improved significantly,” he said. 

Simon 15:43 PT – Tesla is now at a point where it is close to self-funding, says Elon Musk. He also noted that Tesla could break-even this quarter and be back to profitability in the following quarter. 

Simon 15:40 PT – Elon discusses the Model S’ Ultimate Car of the Year award from MotorTrend and Model 3’s stellar safety ratings. Musk appears to be reading from a pre-prepared script at this point, though he did state that the Model Y ramp will be far easier than that of the Model 3. He’s also taking some time explaining how pertinent Tesla’s growth is. 

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Dacia 15:37 PT – Elon’s remarks may be scripted, but the facts are still awesome. Tesla has a lot to look forward to despite some losses this quarter.

Simon 15:35 PT – Elon starts off by saying how proud he is of Tesla’s team, particularly in light of the Tesla team’s growth and accomplishments in the second quarter. Delivering 95,200 vehicles in three months is no joke, after all. “Achieving a record number of deliveries is a milestone. This was achieved thanks to the tremendous work by the Tesla team,” he said.  

Simon 15:33 PT – Ooh, look what we have here. The earnings call is starting on time. Martin Viecha takes the floor. Elon, JB and Zach are in attendance. 

Simon 15:30 PT – And here we go. Here’s the classic music. 

Simon 15:25 PT –  Last five minutes before the earnings call begins. We’re about to find out if the event will begin on time or not. 

Simon 15:20 PT – Something that’s particularly interesting in Tesla’s Q2 Update Letter also lies in a section for Model Y production. Finally, after all the way, Tesla has confirmed where the all-electric SUV will be made. Just as expected, the Model 3’s SUV sibling will be manufactured in the Fremont factory. 

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Simon 15:15 PT – I get it. Tesla’s Q2 loss is a bit disheartening since the company did reach record deliveries in the second quarter. I guess I was hoping for Tesla to show a small profit somehow. Then again, Elon did say that Q2 will likely end at a loss. So I shouldn’t really get that surprised.  

Simon 15:10 PT – The Q2 Update Letter mentioned a number of gems, I must say. For one, Tesla has $5 billion in cash, the largest it’s been in the company’s history. Higher-margin Model 3s continue to sell well, and this absolute unit of a factory in China is progressing at a stupidly fast pace. Everyone knows Gigafactory 3 will be built fast. But not this fast. This. Is. Insane.

Pretty crazy that the image on the left is already installed somewhere in the image on the right, right? 

Simon 15:05 PT – So here we are again at another Tesla earnings call. The call should start in around 30 minutes not accounting for Elon Time. TSLA stock is currently being battered in after-hours trading due to the electric car maker falling short of Wall Street’s estimates. With record numbers in Q2 though, Tesla shares are likely not done being volatile today. 

 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX reports its second earnings today: here’s what to expect

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) will report its second public earnings call today since its IPO earlier this year, and there are a few things we expect to hear about, as well as Wall Street analysts, who have already outlined their expectations for the call.

Wall Street analysts have a consensus of $12.72 billion in revenue and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13. These are broken down into three sectors: Space, Connectivity, and AI/SI, which are perceived in this way:

  • Space: $1.41 billion
  • Connectivity: $4.84 billion
  • AI/SI: $6.47 billion

Other outlets cluster near $12.8 or $12.9 billion in revenue and $0.14 – $0.15 EPS. This implies a roughly 65 percent sequential growth from Q2’s $7.81 billion, driven mostly by AI/SI, with the first post-IPO positive EPS expected.

SpaceX just launched its secret Starfall saucer again

Here are the three things to watch for on the call:

AI Revenue Ramp and the $100B+ ARR target

AI is truly the swing factor for SpaceX, and analysts expect it to roughly double from Q2’s $2.56 billion and become about half of total revenue. Management previously guided to a $100 billion+ annualized run rate by December, including the Cursor acquisition, which was $60 billion, to close the quarter.

SpaceX makes first acquisition post-IPO

Listen for updates on SpaceX’s compute capacity, especially pertaining to its contracts with Google, Anthropic, and others, revenue per watt, any new deals, and Cursor’s early contribution.

Starlink/Connectivity Metrics and Mobile Expansion

Connectivity remains a main profit engine for SpaceX. Subscriber additions will be something to pay attention to, as Q2 ended at 12 million and previews are looking at 14 million for this quarter. Additionally, ARPU trends, enterprise and government growth, and any commentary on Starlink Mobile will be something to pay attention to, especially following the recent low-band spectrum deal and FCC-related constellation approvals.

Capex Trajectory, Cash Burn/FCF, and Starship/Operational Updates

Q2 capex of roughly $18.4 billion weighed on the stock. Investors will look to scrutinize Q3 spending levels, any guidance on the pace into Q4/2027, free cash flow, backlog, and liquidity. Operational color on Starship (Flight 14 milestones and Flight 15 timing/reusability progress), Falcon cadence, and government/NASA contracts are also in focus.

Of course, there will also be some speculation on the potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, but there was nothing mentioned in the company’s proxy it sent earlier this week.

SpaceX will report earnings after market close today and will stream the call on X.

Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk will give ‘every kid in America’ a SpaceX share in 2027

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Elon Musk said he is planning to give “every one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America” in 2027, stating that “this will be the first of many.”

SpaceX went public earlier this year, and its stock price has been relatively stable since leveling off shortly after its IPO. Based on its current price, it’s a gift of just over $10 billion to children across the United States.

It appears to be closely related to President Donald Trump’s bank accounts for children, which were set up earlier this year as Trump Accounts.

Just hours earlier, Anthropic had announced the establishment of its Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly-owned entity dedicated entirely to public benefit.” Musk responded by stating he recommended “giving the shares directly to the public,” and that he would be doing it that way.

Just a little bit later, Musk said children across the U.S. would be getting a share from him:

There are roughly 70 million children, meaning someone under the age of 18, in the United States, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. Musk’s ownership of SpaceX stock shows he has around 849 million Class A shares of SpaceX stock, according to filings with the SEC.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching

SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger

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SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.

The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures

All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.

If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.

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