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Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2020 results: Beats on revenue, Model Y sets historic profit on launch

(Credit: Tesla China/Twitter)

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) first-quarter earnings for 2020 saw the electric car maker post $5.985 billion in revenue, slightly beating estimates from Wall Street. The results, which were discussed at length in an Update Letter, were released after the closing bell on Wednesday, April 29.

Tesla ended the first quarter on a surprisingly optimistic note. Despite the ongoing pressures from the coronavirus outbreak, Tesla managed to deliver 88,400 vehicles and produce over 102,000, comprised of 76,200 Model 3 and Model Y and 12,200 Model S and X. 

Gigafactory Shanghai facility also reopened after a brief government-mandated shutdown in China due to the initial onset of the pandemic, and has since ramped its Model 3 production activities. Tesla stock has also proven resilient amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, rising 70% year to date. 

The following are the key points in Tesla’s Q1 2020 Update Letter.

REVENUE

Tesla reported revenue of $5.985 billion for the first quarter. In contrast, Wall St. expected Tesla to report revenue of $5.85 billion as per data aggregated by NASDAQ.

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EARNINGS

Tesla shareholders saw non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.24 in the fourth quarter, beating Wall St’s estimates. In comparison, Wall Street expected Tesla to report a loss of $0.18 per share for the first quarter. 

CASH

Despite Q1 being a traditionally soft quarter as per automotive trends, Tesla was able to increase its cash by $1.8 billion. This hiked up the company’s total cash to around $8.1 billion, which is partly due to a $2.3 billion capital raise that was conducted in the first quarter. 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Operating cash flow less capex (free cash flow) negative $895M in Q1 (of which $981M outflow due to inventory growth)
  • $283M GAAP operating income; 4.7% operating margin in Q1
  • $16M GAAP net income; $227M non-GAAP net income (ex-SBC) in Q1
  • Gross margin at Giga Shanghai approaching level of US-made Model 3
  • Model Y gross margin positive in Q1
  • Solar Roof production exceeded 4 MW per week, enough for up to 1,000 homes
  • Tesla Semi deliveries are shifted to 2021

TESLA ENERGY

The first quarter saw milestones for Tesla Energy. Apart from Solar Roof production in Gigafactory New York exceeding 4 MW per week, which is enough for 1,000 homes. The 100,000th Tesla Powerwall has also been installed, highlighting the potential of residential battery storage. Demand for the 3 MW Tesla Megapack is also healthy, being beyond the company’s capability to produce the grid-scale systems. 

GIGAFACTORY SHANGHAI AND BERLIN

Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai is proving to be a trump card, with the facility poised to hit a production rate of 4,000 Model 3 per week in mid-2020. Tesla China is also poised to release two new versions of its locally-produced Model 3, the Long Range and Performance variants. 

Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg is also progressing. While no groundbreaking activities have been done on the site, Tesla was nonetheless able to complete its ground-leveling operations. Despite this, Tesla still aims to start Model Y production in Gigafactory Berlin in 2021. 

TSLA STOCK SO FAR

Investors proved bullish on the electric car maker on Wednesday, ending the day +4.08% and trading at $800.51 per share. Tesla shareholders have received the electric car maker’s results positively. As of writing, Tesla shares are trading 9.06% at $873.00 per share during after-hours trading. 

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Tesla’s Q1 2020 Update Letter could be accessed below.

Q1 2020 Update by Simon Alvarez on Scribd

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.

The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.

Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.

This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.

Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing

It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.

The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.

However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.

Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.

Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.

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Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says

“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”

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Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.

Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.

However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.

The analyst said:

“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”

Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.

There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.

This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.

Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing

CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.

Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm

Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.

Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.

Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.

Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale

By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.

He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:

  1. Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
  2. Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
  3. Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.

Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.

Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.

So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.

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