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Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely
In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.
The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”
The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.
First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.
Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.
Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.
Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”
Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.
For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.
This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.
Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.
If a severe global recession were to dry up capital availability / liquidity while SpaceX was losing billions on Starlink & Starship, then bankruptcy, while still unlikely, is not impossible.
GM & Chrysler went BK last recession.
“Only the paranoid survive.” – Grove— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 30, 2021
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk gives nod to Ford while acknowledging his influence on EVs
“Ford basically invented mass manufacturing of large, complex products. Everyone else copied.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a tremendous nod to Ford while also acknowledging his own influence on EVs and the automotive industry in general.
Yesterday, Ford announced its new manufacturing process for EVs, which was essentially a rebirth of its own production lines and plans for more affordable models to offer consumers.
It was important to recognize that Ford truly launched automotive manufacturing with its production of the Model T 122 years ago.
That’s exactly what Musk did in a response to Ford CEO Jim Farley:
Ford basically invented mass manufacturing of large, complex products. Everyone else copied.
Most people don’t know this.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 11, 2025
In the over 100 years since Ford started producing vehicles, the company has had one significant fact go under the radar: it truly created a great process for building large, complex vehicles. It is something that many companies eventually adopted as the car industry took off.
Tesla is in a similar situation. It has used things like the Giga Press from the Italian company IDRA to create a better, more efficient, streamlined process for building cars.
It was able to use casting to eliminate a vast majority of parts from the Model Y, which not only helped increase manufacturing efficiency but also improved safety and structural rigidity. It truly revolutionized manufacturing for the company, and Ford said that it would adopt a similar mindset with its new EVs.
Yesterday, Doug Field, the Chief EV, Digital and Design Officer for Ford, and a former Sr. VP of Engineering for Tesla, said the company was taking the mentality that “the best part is no part.”
Musk acknowledged how far it has come and how it is influencing other car companies to do the same in terms of its production strategy:
🫡
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 12, 2025
Ford is using an “Assembly Tree,” which is essentially very similar to Tesla’s “unboxed production process.” In addition to the use of Gigacasting, which Ford is calling “Unicasting,” as well as the use of structural batteries, it is almost as if Tesla is having its own “Model T moment.”
Ford has been quick to adopt an EV mentality as it plans to transition its business over the next decades. It is working to prepare for the future of the atuomotive industry, and although it has adjusted its strategy, it can’t be denied that Ford is one of the legacy automakers taking this new chapter in cars seriously.
Elon Musk
Tesla has one big bottleneck with its public Robotaxi launch, but it can fix it easily
Elon Musk plans for Tesla Robotaxi to be open to the public in Austin in September.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the company’s Robotaxi program would open to the public in September, but there is one big bottleneck that would inhibit it from launching smoothly.
The thing is, it can be resolved in no time, and Tesla can fix it internally.
In Austin, the Robotaxi platform has been in operation since late June. The launch of the program only allowed a handful of privileged influencers and groups to access the driverless ride-hailing service, although it has expanded this group on several occasions.
It has also slowly added vehicles to the fleet, starting at 11 cars when it launched in June. There have been a few cars added, but Tesla has continued to prioritize safety, keeping its rider population and number of vehicles low for the time being.
However, this is going to cause quite a bit of a bottleneck in next month’s planned public launch, as there will be an open invitation for anyone and everyone to test out the Robotaxi platform in Austin.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when
Many people have been waiting for an invitation to ride in a Robotaxi, and Tesla has not been prone to give one to just anybody.
As that becomes a much larger number next month, Tesla is going to have to step up its Robotaxi fleet number, as well as its population of Safety Monitors, the riders that sit in the passenger seat to ensure everything goes smoothly.
Tesla is going to need to add A LOT more cars if they want to be able to meet the demand, otherwise rides will be unavailable to most.
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 11, 2025
While the geofence in Austin has roughly doubled in size twice during both of Tesla’s expansions of the service area, the company is still playing it safe with rider population growth, something that aligns with its focus on safety.
Musk said recently about the expansion of Robotaxi to customer-owned vehicles:
“As I said, we’re being paranoid about safety. But I guess next year is I’d say confidently next year. I’m not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla, Inc. fleet.”
The Robotaxi fleet will, without a doubt, revolutionize the way people view ride-hailing. Tesla seems ready to open it up to the public next month, based on what Musk said, but some changes will have to occur to ensure it goes smoothly.
News
Tesla Model Y L spotted in Europe ahead of expected September China launch
Tesla’s long-wheelbase Model Y L has seemingly been spotted in Europe.

Tesla’s long-wheelbase Model Y L has seemingly been spotted in Europe, signaling its upcoming debut outside China. A lightly camouflaged prototype was seen at a charging station near Germany’s Nürburgring, hinting that the extended wheelbase crossover will make its way to European markets after its expected September launch in China.
The Model Y L
The Model Y L, which will be offered in a six-seat configuration, is expected to add roughly 178 mm (7 inches) to the overall length of the standard Model Y, with 152 mm (6 inches) dedicated to stretching the wheelbase, as noted in an autoevolution report. This design tweak should unlock more third-row space, and it should be enough to rival the rear seating comfort of the much more expensive Model X, which can no longer be ordered in Europe.
While initially mistaken for a Model Y Performance during testing, the prototype’s extended rear door cutout and 19-inch wheels, which were unusual for a Performance variant, suggested that the covered unit was actually the Model Y L. The prototype’s wheels, if any, match those listed in China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) filing for the upcoming Model Y L.
Model Y L production
Tesla is expected to build the Model Y L at Giga Shanghai for the Chinese market initially, though speculations are high that the vehicle will also be built at Giga Berlin in Germany, as well as the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas in the United States. Recent reports have suggested that the Model Y L’s production in China has already begun, and sales there are slated to start in September.
Considering the Model Y L’s lower entry price compared to the flagship Model X, the upcoming extended wheelbase crossover could quickly become Tesla’s new premier SUV for families needing extra passenger capacity, at least without stepping into the premium pricing bracket of the Model X.
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