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Amazon chooses everyone but SpaceX to launch its Starlink competitor

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Amazon has announced a series of record-breaking launch contracts that will place a “majority” of its 3,236-satellite Project Kuiper constellation in orbit in the hope of blanketing the Earth with high-quality internet alongside OneWeb, Starlink, Telesat, and others.

Of 68 firm launch contracts and a total of 83 contracts including unexercised options, SpaceX – the world’s most cost-effective, available launch provider – is fully absent. Instead, Amazon, has awarded three batch contracts to United Launch Alliance (ULA), Arianespace, and Blue Origin. Prior to this announcement, Amazon had already purchased two launches of prototype satellites on startup ABL Space’s RS1 rockets and nine operational launches on ULA Atlas V rockets, rounding out what is undoubtedly the most expensive set of commercial launch purchases in spaceflight history.

More likely than not, Amazon is paying a bare minimum of $100 million per launch, though $150-200 million is probably closer to reality. All three of the rockets now scheduled to launch most Kuiper satellites have yet to fly. Arianespace’s Ariane 6 and ULA’s Vulcan Centaur could debut in late 2022, though 2023 is more likely. Blue Origin’s partially reusable New Glenn is unlikely to fly before 2024 or even 2025.

Amazon has now purchased:

  • 9 Atlas V launches, each likely costing $150-200 million.
  • 12 New Glenn launches, with options for 15 more. Blue Origin says New Glenn will be able to carry 61 satellites per launch. The company has yet to reveal pricing but $100 million per launch is a probable floor.
  • 18 Ariane 6 launches carrying 35-40 satellites apiece. As of 2014, the rocket’s most capable variant was expected to cost at least €115 million (~$125 million) per launch.
  • 38 Vulcan Centaur launches carrying 45 satellites apiece. ULA wants the cheapest Vulcan variant to cost ~$100 million. Project Kuiper, which likely needs the most expensive Vulcan variant, will probably pay closer to $125-150 million per launch.
New Glenn.
An Ariane 6 constellation launch.
Vulcan Centaur.

All told, assuming Atlas V can launch at least 15-20 satellites apiece, Amazon’s latest contract likely means that the company has secured enough launch capacity to fully launch the first phase of its Project Kuiper constellation without exercising options. Those 77 operational launches will likely cost the company a minimum of $9.5-10 billion before accounting for the cost of Kuiper satellites or payload adapters.

According to NASA’s ELVPerf calculator, which uses official data provided by each company, Vulcan’s heaviest VC6 variant can launch ~27 tons (~60,000 lb) and New Glenn can launch ~35 tons (~77,000 lb) to a low 300-kilometer (~190 mile) insertion orbit. Ariane 6’s most capable ’64’ variant will likely be able to launch about 20 tons (~44,000 lb) to the same orbit, though official info is only available for a circular 500-kilometer orbit. Assuming Project Kuiper launches are not volume constrained, meaning that most of each rocket’s available performance is being taken advantage of, each Kuiper satellite likely weighs no more than 500-600 kilograms (1100-1300 lb).

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Falcon 9 recently broke an internal payload record with the successful launch of 16.25 tons of Starlink satellites to a similarly low insertion orbit. Including the mass of a payload adapter and deployment mechanism, Falcon 9’s true performance was likely closer to 17-18 tons. Combined with Falcon 9’s cheapest public commercial launch contract (~$50 million), it’s possible that SpaceX’s partially reusable Falcon 9 rockets could have launched 25-30 Kuiper satellites apiece for an average cost of ~$1.7 to $2 million per satellite – around 50-80% cheaper than Kuiper’s likely average.

Falcon 9 has launched more than 2250 operational Starlink satellites in less than three years. (Richard Angle)
Starship will need to surpass Falcon 9 by almost a full magnitude to launch SpaceX’s planned 30,000-satellite Starlink Gen2 constellation. (SpaceX)

Those significant savings don’t consider SpaceX’s next-generation Starship launch vehicle, which will likely reach orbit and begin commercial launches at least a year before New Glenn. Starship could feasibly carry 100-150 Kuiper satellites per launch and, if full reusability is achieved, might cost less than Falcon 9 despite offering at least five times the performance.

Per Amazon’s Project Kuiper FCC constellation license, the company will need to launch half of its constellation – 1618 satellites – by July 2026. It’s not actually clear if Arianespace, ULA, and Blue Origin will be able to collectively complete the roughly 36 launches that will require over the next four years. In the last four years, Arianespace’s Ariane 5 and ULA’s Atlas and Delta rockets have collectively launched 38 times. The first Kuiper satellite prototype is scheduled to launch no earlier than late 2022, meaning that operational launches are unlikely to begin before mid-2023.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla investors will be shocked by Jim Cramer’s latest assessment

Jim Cramer is now speaking positively about Tesla, especially in terms of its Robotaxi performance and its perception as a company.

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Credit: CNBC Television/YouTube

Tesla investors will be shocked by analyst Jim Cramer’s latest assessment of the company.

When it comes to Tesla analysts, many of them are consistent. The bulls usually stay the bulls, and the bears usually stay the bears. The notable analysts on each side are Dan Ives and Adam Jonas for the bulls, and Gordon Johnson for the bears.

Jim Cramer is one analyst who does not necessarily fit this mold. Cramer, who hosts CNBC’s Mad Money, has switched his opinion on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) many times.

He has been bullish, like he was when he said the stock was a “sleeping giant” two years ago, and he has been bearish, like he was when he said there was “nothing magnificent” about the company just a few months ago.

Now, he is back to being a bull.

Cramer’s comments were related to two key points: how NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang describes Tesla after working closely with the Company through their transactions, and how it is not a car company, as well as the recent launch of the Robotaxi fleet.

Jensen Huang’s Tesla Narrative

Cramer says that the narrative on quarterly and annual deliveries is overblown, and those who continue to worry about Tesla’s performance on that metric are misled.

“It’s not a car company,” he said.

He went on to say that people like Huang speak highly of Tesla, and that should be enough to deter any true skepticism:

“I believe what Musk says cause Musk is working with Jensen and Jensen’s telling me what’s happening on the other side is pretty amazing.”

Tesla self-driving development gets huge compliment from NVIDIA CEO

Robotaxi Launch

Many media outlets are being extremely negative regarding the early rollout of Tesla’s Robotaxi platform in Austin, Texas.

There have been a handful of small issues, but nothing significant. Cramer says that humans make mistakes in vehicles too, yet, when Tesla’s test phase of the Robotaxi does it, it’s front page news and needs to be magnified.

He said:

“Look, I mean, drivers make mistakes all the time. Why should we hold Tesla to a standard where there can be no mistakes?”

It’s refreshing to hear Cramer speak logically about the Robotaxi fleet, as Tesla has taken every measure to ensure there are no mishaps. There are safety monitors in the passenger seat, and the area of travel is limited, confined to a small number of people.

Tesla is still improving and hopes to remove teleoperators and safety monitors slowly, as CEO Elon Musk said more freedom could be granted within one or two months.

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Tesla launches ultra-fast V4 Superchargers in China for the first time

Tesla has V4 Superchargers rolling out in China for the first time.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla already has nearly 12,000 Supercharger piles across mainland China. However, the company just initiated the rollout of the ultra-fast V4 Superchargers in China for the first time, bringing its quick-charging piles to the country for the first time since their launch last year.

The first batch of V4 Superchargers is now officially up and running in China, the company announced in a post on Chinese social media outlet Weibo today.

Tesla China teases arrival of V4 Superchargers in 2025

The company said in the post:

“The first batch of Tesla V4 Superchargers are online. Covering more service areas, high-speed charging is more convenient, and six-layer powerful protection such as rain and waterproof makes charging very safe. Simultaneously open to non-Tesla vehicles, and other brands of vehicles can also be charged. There are more than 70,000 Tesla Superchargers worldwide. The charging network layout covers 100% of the provincial capitals and municipalities in mainland China. More V4 Superchargers will be put into use across the country. Optimize the charging experience and improve energy replenishment efficiency. Tesla will accompany you to the mountains, rivers, lakes, and seas with pure electricity!”

The first V4 Superchargers Tesla installed in China are available in four cities across the country: Shanghai, Zhejiang, Gansu, and Chongqing.

Credit: Tesla China

Tesla has over 70,000 Superchargers worldwide. It is the most expansive and robust EV charging network in the world. It’s the main reason why so many companies have chosen to adopt Tesla’s charging connector in North America and Europe.

In China, some EVs can use Tesla Superchargers as well.

The V4 Supercharger is capable of charging vehicles at speeds of up to 325kW for vehicles in North America. This equates to over 1,000 miles per hour of charging.

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Elon Musk hints at when Tesla could reduce Safety Monitors from Robotaxi

Tesla could be reducing Safety Monitors from Robotaxi within ‘a month or two,’ CEO Elon Musk says.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Elon Musk hinted at when Tesla could begin reducing Safety Monitors from its Robotaxis. Safety Monitors are Tesla employees who sit in the front passenger seat during the driverless rides, and are there to ensure safety for occupants during the earliest rides.

Tesla launched its Robotaxi fleet in Austin last Sunday, and after eight days, videos and reviews from those who have ridden in the driverless vehicles have shown that the suite is safe, accurate, and well coordinated. However, there have been a few hiccups, but nothing that has put anyone’s safety in danger.

A vast majority — close to all of the rides — at least according to those who have ridden in the Robotaxi, have been performed without any real need for human intervention. We reported on what was the first intervention last week, as a Safety Monitor had to step in and stop the vehicle in a strange interaction with a UPS truck.

Watch the first true Tesla Robotaxi intervention by safety monitor

The Tesla and UPS delivery truck were going for the same street parking space, and the Tesla began to turn into it. The UPS driver parallel parked into the spot, which was much smaller than his truck. It seemed to be more of an instance of human error instead of the Robotaxi making the wrong move. This is something that the driverless cars will have to deal with because humans are aggressive and sometimes make moves they should not.

The Safety Monitors have not been too active in the vehicles. After all, we’ve only seen that single instance of an intervention. There was also an issue with the sun, when the Tesla braked abnormally due to the glare, but this was an instance where the car handled the scenario and proceeded normally.

With the Robotaxi fleet operating impressively, some are wondering when Tesla will begin scaling back both the Safety Monitors and Teleoperators that it is using to ensure safety with these early rides.

CEO Elon Musk answered the inquiry by stating, “As soon as we feel it is safe to do so. Probably within a month or two.”

Musk’s response seems to confirm that there will be fewer Teleoperators and Safety Monitors in the coming months, but there will still be some within the fleet to ensure safety. Eventually, that number will get to zero.

Reaching a point where Tesla’s Robotaxi is driverless will be another significant milestone for the company and its path to fully autonomous ride-sharing.

Eventually, Tesla will roll out these capabilities to consumer-owned vehicles, offering them a path to generate revenue as their car operates autonomously and completes rides.

For now, Tesla is focusing on perfecting the area of Austin where it is currently offering driverless rides for just $4.20 to a small group of people.

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