

News
Amazon chooses everyone but SpaceX to launch its Starlink competitor
Amazon has announced a series of record-breaking launch contracts that will place a “majority” of its 3,236-satellite Project Kuiper constellation in orbit in the hope of blanketing the Earth with high-quality internet alongside OneWeb, Starlink, Telesat, and others.
Of 68 firm launch contracts and a total of 83 contracts including unexercised options, SpaceX – the world’s most cost-effective, available launch provider – is fully absent. Instead, Amazon, has awarded three batch contracts to United Launch Alliance (ULA), Arianespace, and Blue Origin. Prior to this announcement, Amazon had already purchased two launches of prototype satellites on startup ABL Space’s RS1 rockets and nine operational launches on ULA Atlas V rockets, rounding out what is undoubtedly the most expensive set of commercial launch purchases in spaceflight history.
More likely than not, Amazon is paying a bare minimum of $100 million per launch, though $150-200 million is probably closer to reality. All three of the rockets now scheduled to launch most Kuiper satellites have yet to fly. Arianespace’s Ariane 6 and ULA’s Vulcan Centaur could debut in late 2022, though 2023 is more likely. Blue Origin’s partially reusable New Glenn is unlikely to fly before 2024 or even 2025.
Amazon has now purchased:
- 9 Atlas V launches, each likely costing $150-200 million.
- 12 New Glenn launches, with options for 15 more. Blue Origin says New Glenn will be able to carry 61 satellites per launch. The company has yet to reveal pricing but $100 million per launch is a probable floor.
- 18 Ariane 6 launches carrying 35-40 satellites apiece. As of 2014, the rocket’s most capable variant was expected to cost at least €115 million (~$125 million) per launch.
- 38 Vulcan Centaur launches carrying 45 satellites apiece. ULA wants the cheapest Vulcan variant to cost ~$100 million. Project Kuiper, which likely needs the most expensive Vulcan variant, will probably pay closer to $125-150 million per launch.



All told, assuming Atlas V can launch at least 15-20 satellites apiece, Amazon’s latest contract likely means that the company has secured enough launch capacity to fully launch the first phase of its Project Kuiper constellation without exercising options. Those 77 operational launches will likely cost the company a minimum of $9.5-10 billion before accounting for the cost of Kuiper satellites or payload adapters.
According to NASA’s ELVPerf calculator, which uses official data provided by each company, Vulcan’s heaviest VC6 variant can launch ~27 tons (~60,000 lb) and New Glenn can launch ~35 tons (~77,000 lb) to a low 300-kilometer (~190 mile) insertion orbit. Ariane 6’s most capable ’64’ variant will likely be able to launch about 20 tons (~44,000 lb) to the same orbit, though official info is only available for a circular 500-kilometer orbit. Assuming Project Kuiper launches are not volume constrained, meaning that most of each rocket’s available performance is being taken advantage of, each Kuiper satellite likely weighs no more than 500-600 kilograms (1100-1300 lb).
Falcon 9 recently broke an internal payload record with the successful launch of 16.25 tons of Starlink satellites to a similarly low insertion orbit. Including the mass of a payload adapter and deployment mechanism, Falcon 9’s true performance was likely closer to 17-18 tons. Combined with Falcon 9’s cheapest public commercial launch contract (~$50 million), it’s possible that SpaceX’s partially reusable Falcon 9 rockets could have launched 25-30 Kuiper satellites apiece for an average cost of ~$1.7 to $2 million per satellite – around 50-80% cheaper than Kuiper’s likely average.
Those significant savings don’t consider SpaceX’s next-generation Starship launch vehicle, which will likely reach orbit and begin commercial launches at least a year before New Glenn. Starship could feasibly carry 100-150 Kuiper satellites per launch and, if full reusability is achieved, might cost less than Falcon 9 despite offering at least five times the performance.
Per Amazon’s Project Kuiper FCC constellation license, the company will need to launch half of its constellation – 1618 satellites – by July 2026. It’s not actually clear if Arianespace, ULA, and Blue Origin will be able to collectively complete the roughly 36 launches that will require over the next four years. In the last four years, Arianespace’s Ariane 5 and ULA’s Atlas and Delta rockets have collectively launched 38 times. The first Kuiper satellite prototype is scheduled to launch no earlier than late 2022, meaning that operational launches are unlikely to begin before mid-2023.
News
Tesla analyst compares Robotaxi to Waymo: ‘The contrast was clear’
“In short, robotaxi felt like a more luxurious service for half the cost and the driving felt more human-like.”

Tesla analyst Jed Dorsheimer of Wall Street firm William Blair compared the company’s Robotaxi platform to Waymo’s driverless ride-sharing program, and had a clear-cut consensus over which option was better in terms of rider experience.
Dorsheimer visited Austin recently to ride in both Tesla’s Robotaxi ride-sharing program and Waymo, which has operated slightly longer than Tesla has in the city. Tesla started rides on June 22, while Waymo opened its vehicles to the public in March.
A Tesla Model Y L Robotaxi is a legitimate $47k Waymo killer
The analyst gave both platforms the opportunity to present themselves, and by the end of it, one was better than the other in terms of rider experience. However, he noted that both platforms gave safe and smooth rides.
Overall, there was a tremendous difference in the feel and environment of each option.
Tesla Robotaxi vs. Waymo
Dorsheimer said that Tesla’s first big advantage was vehicle appearance. Robotaxi uses no external equipment or hardware to operate; just its exterior cameras. Meanwhile, Zoox and Waymo vehicles utilize LiDAR rigs on their vehicles, which made them “stick out like a sore thumb.”
“In contrast, the robotaxis blended in with other Teslas on the road; we felt inconspicuous flowing with the traffic,” he added.
The next big victory went in the way of Robotaxi once again, and it concerned perhaps the most important metric in the ridesharing experience: price.
He continued in the note:
“Confirming our thesis, robotaxi was half the price of Uber, showing its ability to win market share by weaponizing price.”
In terms of overall performance, Dorsheimer noted that both platforms provided safe and “top-notch” experiences. However, there was one distinction between the two and it provided a clear consensus on which was better.
He said:
“In Austin, we took multiple robotaxi and Waymo rides; the contrast was clear. Aside from the visual difference between each pulling up to the curb, the robotaxi was comfortable and familiar, and it felt as though a friendly ghost chauffeur was driving our personal car. Driving was smooth and human-like, recognizing and patiently waiting for pedestrians, switching into less crowded lanes, patiently waiting to execute a safe unprotected turn, and yet, discerning and confident enough to drive through a light that just turned yellow, so as not to slam on the brakes.
Waymo also provided a top-notch service, and we did not encounter any safety concerns, but if we were to be overly critical, it felt more … robotic. In the cabin, you have to listen to an airline-esque preamble on Waymo and safety protocols, and during the ride, you can hear all the various spinning lidar sensors spooling up and down with electronic whizzing sounds.”
Tesla Robotaxi provides an experience that seems to be more catered toward a realistic ride experience. You can control the music, the cabin temperature, and transitioning your travel from one vehicle to the next during a trip will continue your entertainment experience.
If your first trip ends in the middle of a song, your next trip will pick up the music where it left off.
Meanwhile, Waymo’s experience sounds as if it is more focused on rider expectations, and not necessarily providing a ride that felt catered to the occupants. Still, what’s important is that both platforms provided safe rides.
Dorsheimer ended the note with one last tidbit:
“In short, robotaxi felt like a more luxurious service for half the cost and the driving felt more human-like.”
News
Tesla offers new deal on used inventory that you won’t want to pass up
Tesla opened up lease deals on used Model 3 and Model Y inventory in California and Texas on Tuesday, marking the first time it has launched the option on pre-owned cars.

Tesla is offering a new deal on its used vehicle inventory that consumers looking for a great deal won’t want to pass up.
Traditionally, Tesla has not allowed potential car buyers to lease its used inventory. The only two options were to buy with cash or finance it through Tesla or a bank.
However, with the elimination of the $7,500 new and $4,000 used EV tax credits, Tesla is breaking its own rules and is now offering lease deals on its used vehicle inventory, but only in a couple of states, as of right now.
Tesla is ready with a perfect counter to the end of US EV tax credits
Tesla opened up lease deals on used Model 3 and Model Y inventory in California and Texas on Tuesday, marking the first time it has launched the option on pre-owned cars.
The deals are tremendous and can cost as little as $0 down and under $225 per month for some vehicles.
Lease a Pre-Owned Model 3 or Y
As low as $0 down & $225/month
Now available in CA & TX https://t.co/LRYRIZP8VZ
— Tesla North America (@tesla_na) August 19, 2025
Tesla also allows customers to buy the vehicle at the end of their lease deal, which enables some really great ways to end up an owner of the car you plan to drive for the next two or three years.
The lease deal also helps Tesla rid itself of older vehicles that might not be of future use to the company. It formerly planned to use leased vehicles in its eventual Robotaxi fleet, but many of the cars in its used inventory have Hardware 3, which is less capable than Hardware 4, which is installed in the new Model 3 and Model Y.
More importantly, Tesla is giving people yet another way to be in the market for a Tesla before the tax credit ends on September 30.
Elon Musk
Tesla Model Y L might not come to the U.S., and it’s a missed opportunity
The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.

Tesla’s new Model Y L might not come to the U.S., CEO Elon Musk said this morning.
It’s a missed opportunity, and I’m not the only one who feels this way.
In the past, I have personally written a handful of articles about what Tesla owners have been wanting in the United States: a full-sized SUV, or at least a vehicle that is larger than the Model Y but less of a crossover than the Model X.
Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast
The only thing that Tesla has announced that even slightly matches this sort of idea is the Robovan, which is, optimistically, several years off because it lacks a steering wheel and pedals and will require Full Self-Driving to be fully autonomous.
Even if Tesla launches FSD next year, it will take a year or two to figure out manufacturing, go through regulatory hurdles with the EPA, and eventually enter mass production for customers.
The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.
However, Musk said it won’t come to the U.S. until next year, and that it “might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America.”
This variant of the Model Y doesn’t start production in the US until the end of next year.
Might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 20, 2025
To be blunt, I’m not sure if I truly believe that Musk thinks the Model Y L won’t come to the U.S. Some believe he said this to not Osborne Effect Model Y sales here, which seems more likely than anything.
Tesla Model Y L gets disappointingly far production date in the United States
People have been buying the Model Y for two years more than any other car in the world. To act as if many families would not appreciate the extra space seems very strange; a big complaint with the Model Y is that it simply does not fit larger families.
If you have four kids, you’re forced into the Model X, which might be too expensive for some families, as it starts at $79,990.
While Tesla’s focus is undoubtedly on autonomy, it is important to remember that some people still really enjoy the act of driving their cars. Tesla has worked very hard to create a fun and sporty driving experience, especially in the new Model Y. Many consumers, including myself, like to take advantage of that.
Autonomy might eventually take over human driving completely, but in the near term, it does not seem as if that is the case. Even if someone were interested in never driving again, this longer and more spacious Model Y L would be an ideal option for American families that need the room for at least six passengers.
Quite a few big names in the Tesla community share this sentiment:
I’m a little surprised by this.
I think the Model Y L would sell extremely well in North America, even with the advent of self-driving. Americans love their larger SUVs. Bigger families here want the Model Y L. There is a need in North America for larger all-electric SUVs at a… https://t.co/v7D1IpCnET
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 20, 2025
More than likely, Musk does not want to announce a more attractive option than the current Model Y, as many consumers would likely wait a year or two for the L in an effort to have more space.
In all honesty, I see the Model Y L coming to the United States, as it truly fits the bill as an ideal car for the modern American family.
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