In a new Tesla ($TSLA) note addressing the Inflation Reduction Act and Tesla, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas talks about Tesla’s potential to drive battery manufacturing efficiency at a “tera-scale that investors will value.”
The note, titled Tesla and the IRA: Birth of an American Green-Shoring Powerhouse? also addresses how Tesla will benefit from the IRA, Elon Musk as a U.S. energy ambassador, and the impact of Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1573014655555047425
“We believe Tesla’s demonstrated manufacturing prowess in cutting costs per car sold in half over the last decade has not been fully appreciated by investors. In our view, Tesla stands to benefit significantly over the next decade as tech advancements and regulatory support in the form of IRA tax credits drive down COGS per unit even further,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas noted that the cost of goods sold (COGS) per unit of production is a critical indicator at Tesla suggesting that its ability to reduce cost is not limited to the battery cell/pack.
“In our view, the reduction in COGS/unit can continue falling with continual learnings, higher volume per SKU, greater efficiency in supply chain, and other factors.”
"Through 2030 we forecast $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351B of free cash flow. By contrast, we forecast GM to generate approx $35B, or 1/10th, of Tesla's FCF. We think the magnitude & volatility of cash flows will be an extremely import driver of success in this market."
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 22, 2022
Other key takeaways from the note include:
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- Further significant opportunity for Tesla to reduce its battery costs.
- Tesla is likely to benefit from the production tax credit if there’s no change to the IRA as it’s currently written.
- Tesla may find itself as a consensus long in the institutional investor community for the first time since its 2010 IPO.
- Morgan Stanely believes that the Great U.S. Renewable Energy On-Shoring theme is equivalent to a “Cambrian explosion” in the amount of capital deployed in supporting U.S. infrastructure and avenues of expression.
- Elon Musk could become a U.S. Energy Ambassador.
“Will Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player drive a ‘narrative shift’ powerful enough to ‘on-board’ long-time skeptics in the name? Yes, Yes, we think so,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas also noted that Tesla is the easier name to own. It has “less execution risk and increasingly ‘less expensive’ than it once was.” He also forecasted $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351 billion of free cash flow through 2030.
Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission.
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News
Tesla Sentry Mode helps lock up drive-by shooting suspect in Seattle
“A nearby Tesla actually captured the video that showed a man crouched behind a vehicle firing gunshots. A lot of vehicles record, and officers know that Teslas, especially, record, so we use that video all the time in these instances.”
Police in Seattle, Washington, are crediting Tesla’s well-known Sentry Mode for helping find a suspect in a drive-by shooting case.
A 21-year-old was arrested for an alleged drive-by shooting in the Pioneer Square neighborhood of Seattle this past Sunday, and the leads on the case seemed to be slim.
However, a Tesla parked nearby was able to record the shooting, as well as the car that the suspect hopped in after the crime occurred. It helped police identify the person they were looking for.
Seattle Police Department Detective Brian Pritchard said to MyNorthwest that the Tesla was a critical part of finding the suspect and placing him under arrest:
“A nearby Tesla actually captured the video that showed a man crouched behind a vehicle firing gunshots. A lot of vehicles record, and officers know that Teslas, especially, record, so we use that video all the time in these instances.”
The Tesla footage helped the Police put the suspect into handcuffs about an hour after the crime was committed. They are currently charged with drive-by shooting and unlawful possession of a firearm.
Tesla Sentry Mode is a security feature the vehicle utilizes to help solve crimes like vandalism, but it is also a cool feature that has caught things like accidents and other incidents on camera.
Many people still do not know about it, including the many vandals who keyed or broke the windows of Teslas earlier this year, as people damaged others’ cars in an act of retaliation against CEO Elon Musk when he became involved in politics.
This is far from the first time Sentry Mode has helped Police Departments solve crimes. Last September, we reported on Oakland’s Police Department in California using Teslas near crime scenes to help solve cases.
Tesla Sentry Mode is Oakland PD’s secret weapon against rising crime
Sergeant Ben Therriault, president of the Richmond Police Officers Association, said, “We have all these mobile video devices floating around,” in reference to the Teslas that sit and capture nearly everything that surrounds them.
Sentry Mode has helped officers arrest a variety of suspects, including several people who were allegedly involved in the murder of a 27-year-old woman in Northern California.
Elon Musk
Tesla investors are ditching Charles Schwab after its vote against Musk comp plan
Tesla investors are ditching Charles Schwab as their brokerage after the firm said earlier this week that it would vote against CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package.
Several high-profile Tesla influencers are speaking out against Charles Schwab, saying its decision to vote against the plan that would retain Musk as CEO and give him potentially more voting power if he can achieve the tranches set by the company’s Board of Directors.
The Tesla community recognized that Schwab is one firm that tends to vote against Musk’s compensation plans, as they also voted against the CEO’s 2018 pay package, which was passed by shareholders but then denied by a Delaware Chancery Court.
Schwab’s move was recognized by investors within the Tesla community and now they are speaking out about it:
Hey @CharlesSchwab – I need to speak with someone from Schwab Private Wealth Services this week. Please reach out via email, the mobile app message center, phone, or X DM.
Here’s why this is urgent: At least 6 of your ETF funds (around 7 million $TSLA shares) voted against… https://t.co/uSgPWnfTFc
— Jason DeBolt ⚡️ (@jasondebolt) November 3, 2025
If @CharlesSchwab doesn’t vote for Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award plan, I’ll move all my assets to another brokerage. My followers, many of whom also hold assets with Schwab and collectively own at least hundreds of millions in $TSLA, may do the same.
I can’t in good… https://t.co/6iUU6PdzYx
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) November 3, 2025
ready to help with the @CharlesSchwab exodus
— Gali (@Gfilche) November 3, 2025
At least six of Charles Schwab’s ETFs have voted against Tesla’s Board recommendation to support the compensation plan for Musk. The six ETFs represent around 7 million Tesla $TSLA shares.
Jason DeBolt, an all-in Tesla shareholder, summarized the firm’s decision really well:
“As a custodian of ETF shares, your fiduciary duty is to vote in shareholders’ best interests. For a board that has delivered extraordinary returns, voting against their recommendations doesn’t align with retail investors, Tesla employees, or the leadership we invested to support. If Schwab’s proxy voting policies don’t reflect shareholder interests, my followers and I will move our collective tens of millions in $TSLA shares (or possibly hundreds of millions) to a broker that does, via account transfer as soon as this week.”
Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s pay package on Thursday at the Annual Shareholders Meeting in Austin, Texas.
It seems more likely than not that it will pass, but investors have made it clear they want a decisive victory, as it could clear the path for any issues with shareholder lawsuits in the future, as it did with Musk’s past pay package.
News
Tesla Cybertruck explosion probe ends with federal involvement and new questions
The 78-page document detailed a planned attack by former Green Beret Matthew Livelsberger, who died by suicide before the blast that injured six people.
The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department (LVMPD) has released its final investigative report into the New Year’s Day Cybertruck explosion outside the Trump International Hotel. But instead of bringing clarity, the findings have only raised more questions.
The 78-page document detailed a planned attack by former Green Beret Matthew Livelsberger, who died by suicide before the blast that injured six people.
The perpetrator’s manifesto
According to a Fox News report, Livelsberger rented the all-electric pickup through Turo while on leave from his Special Forces unit. He filled the rented Cybertruck with fireworks, gas cans, and camping fuel before driving it to the hotel shortly after 8:40 a.m. on January 1. Surveillance footage showed him pouring accelerant into the truck bed moments before detonation, confirming premeditation.
Livelsberger left a manifesto on his phone, which was later deemed classified by the Department of War. This case was then handed over to federal authorities. Still, the LVMPD and federal investigators noted in their report that the incident was a “vehicle-borne improvised explosive device” (VBIED) attack “with the potential to cause mass casualties and extensive structural damage.” Officials, however, stopped short of labeling it terrorism.
In digital notes, Livelsberger wrote that his act was not terror-related but intended as “a wake-up call,” criticizing what he called America’s “feckless leadership.” He wrote, “Americans only pay attention to spectacles and violence. What better way to get my point across than a stunt with fireworks and explosives.”
The incident ironically showcased the Cybertruck’s durability
Tesla CEO Elon Musk was among the first to respond publicly after the blast, confirming through X that the company’s senior team was investigating the incident. He later stated that vehicle telemetry showed no malfunction and that the explosion was caused by “very large fireworks and/or a bomb” placed in the Cybertruck’s bed.
Ironically, footage of the incident in the Cybertruck’s bed showed that the vehicle’s durable construction actually helped contain the explosion by directing the blast upwards. The bed remained largely intact after the explosion as well. Even more surprisingly, the Cybertruck’s battery did not catch fire despite the blast.
Months later, the same Cybertruck appeared on the online auction platform IAA, marked as “not ready for sale.” The listing has stirred debate among Tesla fans about why the historic vehicle wasn’t reclaimed by the company. The vehicle, after all, could serve as a symbol of the Cybertruck’s resilience, even in extreme circumstances.
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