

Investor's Corner
Tesla Earnings Call expectations from a bull: $25k, Robotaxi, Cybertruck, and Trump v. Harris
Tesla is set to report earnings for the third quarter this evening after market close, and one of its more bullish analysts, Gary Black, the managing partner of the Future Fund, has expectations of what could be discussed, along with his opinions on each.
Black gained attention just before the Robotaxi event that Tesla held earlier this month by stating that the $25,000 EV is more crucial in his eyes because it could drive the company to infiltrate a larger market share by taking buyers away from cars like the Toyota Corolla.
Here’s what he expects for the call:
Tesla’s $25,000 EV
Tesla enthusiasts disagreed with Black’s because of the massive implications of the Robotaxi, but in his own estimation, at least in the short-term, was more than credible. If Tesla could offer a $25,000 EV before incentives, it would come in at under $20,000, and it would eliminate nearly anyone from being out of the price range of a competitive EV.
However, Black does not see Tesla diving into any details on the potential for a $25,000 EV, and for good reason.
Tesla investors want Elon Musk to discuss these things at Q3 Earnings
If Tesla were to talk about a near-term release of the vehicle, it would cannibalize sales of the Model 3 and Model Y, two vehicles that the company is heavily incentivizing with attractive interest rates and other offers. Tesla is hoping for a strong fourth quarter so it can keep a delivery pace that is level with what the company achieved in 2023 with 1.8 million units.
Tesla Robotaxi Clarification
Black also said that the Robotaxi event, which the market did not see as a huge win according to how Tesla stock dropped after, needed more detail. This could be CEO Elon Musk’s opportunity to clarify the situation:
“There is likely to be at least one question on the detail missing from the robotaxi event: Specifically, how does TSLA go from 300 miles per disengagement today to the 17,000 miles per disengagement likely needed by regulators to approve a robotaxi deployment license? Mgmt can’t just assert that because of fleet size, data, and compute it will happen. There needs to be some support for the claim.”
Tesla Cybertruck Profitability
Tesla’s financials on the Cybertruck are also something that Black believes the company will be confronted about. The pickup is still in the early stages of production and it noted earlier this year that it should be at a breakeven by the end of the year.
It will be interesting to see if Tesla clarifies this.
Tesla’s EV Plans for Trump vs. Harris
Finally, Musk will likely be asked about Tesla and how it could perform under the specific EV policies of a Trump or Harris presidency. Both candidates have their own directions for the electric vehicle sector. While Musk has outspokenly supported Trump, he has not been the most supportive of EV mandates.
On the other hand, Harris was Vice President for Joe Biden, who rarely gave Tesla its flowers when it came to development and overall influence of the EV sector.
Tesla will report earnings at market close today, Wednesday, October 23.
Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm
ISS said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package, which was proposed by the company last month, has hit its first bit of adversity from proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS).
Musk has called the firm “ISIS,” a play on its name relating it to the terrorist organization, in the past.
“ISIS”
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 27, 2021
The pay package aims to lock in Musk to the CEO role at Tesla for the next decade, as it will only be paid in full if he is able to unlock each tranche based on company growth, which will reward shareholders.
However, the sum is incredibly large and would give Musk the ability to become the first trillionaire in history, based on his holdings. This is precisely why ISS is advising shareholders to vote against the pay plan.
The group said that Musk’s pay package will lock him in, which is the goal of the Board, and it is especially important to do this because of his “track record and vision.”
However, it also said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”
The release from ISS called the size of Musk’s pay package “astronomical” and said its design could continue to pay the CEO massive amounts of money for even partially achieving the goals. This could end up in potential dilution for existing investors.
If Musk were to reach all of the tranches, Tesla’s market cap could reach up to $8.5 trillion, which would make it the most valuable company in the world.
Tesla has made its own attempts to woo shareholders into voting for the pay package, which it feels is crucial not only for retaining Musk but also for continuing to create value for shareholders.
Tesla launched an ad for Elon Musk’s pay package on Paramount+
Musk has also said he would like to have more ownership control of Tesla, so he would not have as much of an issue with who he calls “activist shareholders.”
Investor's Corner
Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.”
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.
Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative
Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.
Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.
Still cautious on TSLA
Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.
Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.
Investor's Corner
BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating
The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels.
The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.
Tesla’s valuation
In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.
The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.
Tesla and its peers
BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.
The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.
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