A Wall Street firm is making a shocking move ahead of Tesla’s Q3 delivery report, increasing its forecast for the quarter.

Tesla is set to report its deliveries for the third quarter sometime next week at the beginning of October. There has been quite a bit of speculation about Tesla’s performance in terms of deliveries for the quarter, as many firms and investors are curious about how strong it could be.

There have been a few things working in Tesla’s favor, including the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which stimulated demand as consumers wanted to take advantage of the discount before it was no longer available.

🚨 Wall Street firm UBS lifted its Q3 delivery forecast for Tesla $TSLA to 475,000 units from 431,000 units.

UBS believes there will be “strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of… pic.twitter.com/lKmvvvi3Hl

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 23, 2025

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Tesla also has launched an attractive revamp to the Model Y this year, which was the best-selling car in the world for the past two years. These two points have helped Tesla with demand specifically this year, but this quarter has been especially strong because of the tax credit phase-out.

With that being said, one Wall Street firm chose to push its delivery prediction for the third quarter up about ten percent.

Tesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules

UBS analysts said they adjusted their delivery targets for Tesla from 431,000 to 475,000, stating it was “more in line with buyside expectations in the 470-475k range.”

The firm continued:

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

If it manages to reach what UBS thinks it will, deliveries would be the highest for Tesla since late 2024, and the firm believes it could “potentially [be] the highest ever” for the company in a single quarter.

Tesla delivered over 495,000 cars in Q4 2024, so it would truly need an anomaly to capture that crown in Q3.

For the full year, UBS believes Tesla will deliver 1.62 million cars in 2025.

Tesla has been granted a new patent for its “Unboxed Process” of manufacturing, which aims to enhance affordability for customers by increasing efficiency at the manufacturing stage.

This is one way the company aims to create a larger impact from start to finish, especially with upcoming vehicles. For those who are not familiar, the Unboxed Process was first unveiled by Tesla back in 2023 during its “Investor Day.”

The company brought forth the idea that vehicle manufacturing could shift from traditional assembly lines, making production more efficient, more cost-effective, and more scalable for the future, especially with mass-market models like Cybercab.

The process includes utilizing past methods that Tesla has brought into automotive manufacturing, including Gigacasting and structural battery integration, with more efficient “post-manufacturing” processes, like pre-painting.

Tesla describes the main advantages in the patent:

“The present disclosure relates to an automated system and method for assembling exterior vehicle parts to a vehicle assembly structure. The system utilizes an automated assembly cell with fixtures corresponding to each exterior vehicle part and references a global datum for precise alignment…The method improves assembly efficiency by compensating for substructure irregularities with an engineered adhesive gap and allows for continued assembly during adhesive curing through tacking operations.”

Instead of traditional welding strategies, the company plans to use a different bonding method, through adhesives.

The patent goes on:

“In described examples, a modular vehicle architecture allows for the assembly of a vehicle in sections, which are then joined in a final assembly operation. This approach eliminates the traditional need for welding stamped panels and applying secondary coatings or painting at the full vehicle assembly level. Instead, the vehicle can be constructed in parts, with metal surface treatments like e-coating and painting applied beforehand.”

The goal behind this manufacturing process is that Tesla will be able to build more vehicles at a faster rate for a lower price, something it believes it will need to accomplish as it addresses autonomy and Robotaxis, which are in higher demand.

With this rate of speed of manufacturing, Tesla says traditional manufacturing methods have the potential consequence of “compounding errors,” as “any slight misalignment or variance can add up.”

There is a refined focus on efficiency, while also recognizing the importance of build quality. This should eliminate most of the issues Tesla would confront with its current, more traditional, linear manufacturing processes.

Tesla saw a notable jump in weekly new vehicle registrations in China, with 17,300 units recorded from September 15 to 21.

The figure marked a 12.7% increase from the previous week’s 15,350 units and represented the highest weekly total in the past 12 weeks. 

Model Y still leads the momentum

The Model Y continued to be Tesla’s best-selling vehicle in China, with 10,340 registrations during the week. Tesla’s recently introduced Model Y L, an extended wheelbase, six-seat variant that launched on August 19, contributed 850 units as deliveries began earlier this month. The Model 3 sedan added 6,060 registrations.

Tesla China noted that customers ordering the Model Y L today can expect deliveries to begin in November, hinting at the strong demand for the newly released vehicle, as noted in a CNEV Post report.

Tesla China’s quarterly performance

Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 57,152 units in August, down 9.9% compared with the 63,456 units from the same month last year but up 40.7% from July’s 40,617 units, as per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Quarter to date, Tesla’s insurance registrations are up 33.2% sequentially but remain 7.8% lower year-over-year.

Despite Tesla China’s year-to-date numbers still being 5.9% lower than the previous year’s figures, it is difficult not to be impressed with the company’s momentum this Q3 2025. With Model Y L production likely picking up steam soon, the trend of the company’s new vehicle registrations in China may very well prove to be quite interesting in the coming quarter.