Investor's Corner
Tesla Earnings: What to Expect
This is a brief update on a few things to watch in Wednesday release of quarterly results and subsequent conference call with company officers.
Model X Deliveries
Tesla reported deliveries of 2,400 Model X vehicles in Q1, below their expected projections, due to supplier part shortages. Tesla stated that “once these these issues were resolved, delivery rates improved dramatically.” But just this weekend, in response to a customer that complained that his Model X 90D, promised by April 15, still had no ETA, Elon Musk tweeted “Have been reviewing end of line production quality personally. Slowed things down temporarily, but its’s for the Best.”
@MacTechGenius @SacEV Have been reviewing end of line production quality personally. Slowed things down temporarily, but it's for the best.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 1, 2016
Elon response tells me that there are still production quality issues with the Model X and as a result delivery has “slowed down” even in Q2. A second consecutive quarter of Model X deliveries slower than expected would likely affect the annual sales goal of 80,000 to 90,000 for 2016, one of the closest-watched metrics, since it correlates to both the amount of cash needed and the expectation of being able to scale the business, and obtain higher margins.
Analyst Sentiment
Of the top 16 analysts listed on TipRanks covering Tesla, 8 rate the stock as a BUY, 6 as a SELL and 2 as a HOLD (tipranks.com). Only one, Patrick Archambault of Goldman Sachs, recently upgraded its price target to 245, on “Model 3 order strength.” All others reiterated their target, with an average of $244.
Source: TipRanks
Earnings
The consensus estimate is a per share $ -.57 loss for the quarter. Tesla has a mixed record regarding beating or missing estimates. Zacks Equity Research reports that “Tesla delivered mixed earnings surprises in the last four quarters. It outperformed in two and missed the other two.”
On the other hand, a miss does not seem to affect TSLA as it does other hi-tech stocks like Apple, Netflix, or Google. While Tesla missed the consensus on 4th quarter 2015 earnings, reported on February 10, on that date it started a 78% run to $269.
Short-Term Action
During the past month, TSLA stock has been in “compression”, i.e. without much direction, up or down, hovering between 240 and 260. Moreover, on several occasions, the stock has changed by over $10 during the same session. This type of behavior makes TSLA fairly difficult to trade as there is no momentum, and the stock can swing back and forth fairly quickly. These are periods where I stay out of trying to trade TSLA and look for other more predictable stocks.
Source: WallSt I/O
Now this latest behavior in TSLA stock was to be expected after such a dramatic move as we had in February and March, and it is actually “healthy” for the stock. After such an incredible run, a cool period, and possibly even a drop, is needed to refuel the bulls.
Live Q&A Webcast
Join the webcast on May 4 at 2:30pm Pacific Time, where officers will discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.
I’ll be listening to the Webcast and will report on my analysis in my next post.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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