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Key takeaways from Tesla’s Q3 report and Q&A with Musk

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Tesla released its third quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, surprising Wall Street after posting nearly $22 million in profit in the quarter. This is in sharp contrast to previous analyst expectations polled by FactSet which expected Tesla to report a GAAP loss of 53 cents a share in the third quarter, and an adjusted loss per share of 22 cents, narrower than the adjusted loss of 58 cents a share in the year-ago period.

Estimize, which crowdsources estimates from buy-side and sell-side analysts, fund managers, hedge funds and academics, expected Tesla to report an adjusted loss per shares of 4 cents. Estimates on E-Trade were between a loss of 4 and 7 cents. Noted Tesla Analyst Ben Kallo of Baird, expected non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.72.

All in all, given all these numbers, Wall Street was basically expecting a breakeven quarter.

Revenue

Total reported Q3 GAAP revenue was $2.30 billion, up 145% from Q3 2015. Tesla matched the higher end of the expectations. Another good news for the stock.

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MarketWatch, in a live blog, called it a “Tesla earnings shocker – Actual profit”. Similarly, Bloomberg was surprised and posted the headline “Tesla Posts Rare Quarterly Profit as Musk Readies for SolarCity. The Wall Street Journal landed the news on its front page with the headline “Tesla Shares Jump after Posting Best Quarterly Sales Ever.”

I believe investors and analyst expectations were so low, that the clearly huge profit numbers were a “shock” to the market. This is Tesla first profitable quarter since the third quarter of 2014, a full 2 years ago, when Tesla eked out a minuscule profit of 2 cents a share. Tesla had reported losses ever since.

Stock Reaction (after hours)

The stock ended the day regular session at $202.24, down 10c for the day.  The stock is down heavily from the $267 in early April, around the time Tesla started taking reservations for the Model 3.

The initial reaction of traders was very positive, as right after the quarterly results were published, Tesla shares rose as high as $215, about 7% in after-hours trading, with very high volume.

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Source: optionhouse.com

Source: optionhouse.com

The conference call did not change much as the after-hour session closed at $212, or up about 5% so we would expect a higher opening on Thursday.

Analysts polled by TipRanks have an average rating of hold on the stock, with an average stock price target of $199.13, about even from current levels at the close. These levels may well be adjusted tomorrow on the upside 5-7%, given the huge beat on expectations.

Source: TipRanks

Source: TipRanks

Conference Call Q&A Top Quotes

Besides the financial report, investors wanted to hear about future production, which they are counting on to justify the still fairly high Tesla share price.

In the Tesla Third Quarter 2016 Update letter, Tesla noted that they “achieved record production levels in Q3, raising to 25,185 vehicles for an increase of 37% from Q2, and an increase of 92% from Q3 last year.” Also, Tesla “maintained guidance of 50,000 new vehicle deliveries for the second half of 2016 […] despite the challenges of winter weather and the holiday season.”

Best Quarter Ever

At the start of the conference call Elon Musk called the “quarter the best ever,” with fourth quarter expected to be great as well, with Q4 to be profitable even including non cash stock based expenses.

Musk called it “One of the best moments in Tesla history.” Elon also addressed rumors of widespread discounting as reason for profit: called the, “absolutely false,” and pointed out that “vehicle profitability increased without ZEV credits.”

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Model 3

Elon reiterates volume production for Model 3 in second half of next year. The terms that the company are getting for suppliers is much better. Model 3 production and logistics are way faster, says Musk. He also forecasts an increase in gross margin, even after big beat on that metric in the quarter just reported. As a result, Elon does say he doesn’t expect to raise more capital in Q1 2017, though he won’t rule it out.

Musk dodged a question about Model 3 deposits: “That’s not something we comment on and not something that deserves merit,” he says.

Elon listed his 3 top priorities: Model 3 production schedule, advancing autopilot software, and ramp up of 100 kWh production line. After the call, Musk will be at the 100 kWh production line as “demand is high,” he says.

SolarCity

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The SolarCity deal about “cash neutral” for Tesla, Musk says. If this is indeed found to be true, it may help with the approval of the deal coming up soon for vote by the shareholders.

“It’s important to have ‘tight control’ of solar panels production in order to have a ‘beautiful’ product. Confident it would have the best product at the best price, and one that would look better as well,” Musk says.

The solar roof product that will be offered by combined Tesla-SolarCity will “look better than a normal roof” and will be aimed at new houses being built and homes where the roof needs to be replaced anyway. Musk said that “People will be surprised by the product to be unveiled on Friday. It exceeded my expectation,” he says.

Full Autonomy

Elon said that “radar is moving from supplemental to primary sensor. Vision is still the main thing, but radar can be primary so you can take action based on radar, similarly as you can take action based on vision.” Elon also called out MobilEye for “issuing bullshit” on radar vs. vision argument in autonomous driving.

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According to Musk, “Teslas on Autopilot are logging 1.5 million miles per day through all kinds of road conditions and weather all across the world.”

All in all no real surprises out of the conference call, and the good thing is that the stock held steady during the call. Definitely a good day for Tesla.

Elon Musk

Tesla analyst issues stern warning to investors: forget Trump-Musk feud

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Credit: Tesla

A Tesla analyst today said that investors should not lose sight of what is truly important in the grand scheme of being a shareholder, and that any near-term drama between CEO Elon Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump should not outshine the progress made by the company.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Management said that Tesla’s progress in autonomy is a much larger influence and a significantly bigger part of the company’s story than any disagreement between political policies.

Munster appeared on CNBC‘s “Closing Bell” yesterday to reiterate this point:

“One thing that is critical for Tesla investors to remember is that what’s going on with the business, with autonomy, the progress that they’re making, albeit early, is much bigger than any feud that is going to happen week-to-week between the President and Elon. So, I understand the reaction, but ultimately, I think that cooler heads will prevail. If they don’t, autonomy is still coming, one way or the other.”

This is a point that other analysts like Dan Ives of Wedbush and Cathie Wood of ARK Invest also made yesterday.

On two occasions over the past month, Musk and President Trump have gotten involved in a very public disagreement over the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which officially passed through the Senate yesterday and is making its way to the House of Representatives.

Tesla analysts believe Musk and Trump feud will pass

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Musk is upset with the spending in the bill, while President Trump continues to reiterate that the Tesla CEO is only frustrated with the removal of an “EV mandate,” which does not exist federally, nor is it something Musk has expressed any frustration with.

In fact, Musk has pushed back against keeping federal subsidies for EVs, as long as gas and oil subsidies are also removed.

Nevertheless, Ives and Wood both said yesterday that they believe the political hardship between Musk and President Trump will pass because both realize the world is a better place with them on the same team.

Munster’s perspective is that, even though Musk’s feud with President Trump could apply near-term pressure to the stock, the company’s progress in autonomy is an indication that, in the long term, Tesla is set up to succeed.

Tesla launched its Robotaxi platform in Austin on June 22 and is expanding access to more members of the public. Austin residents are now reporting that they have been invited to join the program.

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Tesla surges following better-than-expected delivery report

Tesla saw some positive momentum during trading hours as it reported its deliveries for Q2.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged over four percent on Wednesday morning after the company reported better-than-expected deliveries. It was nearly right on consensus estimations, as Wall Street predicted the company would deliver 385,000 cars in Q2.

Tesla reported that it delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2. Many, including those inside the Tesla community, were anticipating deliveries in the 340,000 to 360,000 range, while Wall Street seemed to get it just right.

Tesla delivers 384,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, deploys 9.6 GWh in energy storage

Despite Tesla meeting consensus estimations, there were real concerns about what the company would report for Q2.

There were reportedly brief pauses in production at Gigafactory Texas during the quarter and the ramp of the new Model Y configuration across the globe were expected to provide headwinds for the EV maker during the quarter.

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At noon on the East Coast, Tesla shares were up about 4.5 percent.

It is expected that Tesla will likely equal the number of deliveries it completed in both of the past two years.

It has hovered at the 1.8 million mark since 2023, and it seems it is right on pace to match that once again. Early last year, Tesla said that annual growth would be “notably lower” than expected due to its development of a new vehicle platform, which will enable more affordable models to be offered to the public.

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These cars are expected to be unveiled at some point this year, as Tesla said they were “on track” to be produced in the first half of the year. Tesla has yet to unveil these vehicle designs to the public.

Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note to investors this morning that the company’s rebound in China in June reflects good things to come, especially given the Model Y and its ramp across the world.

He also said that Musk’s commitment to the company and return from politics played a major role in the company’s performance in Q2:

“If Musk continues to lead and remain in the driver’s seat, we believe Tesla is on a path to an accelerated growth path over the coming years with deliveries expected to ramp in the back-half of 2025 following the Model Y refresh cycle.”

Ives maintained his $500 price target and the ‘Outperform’ rating he held on the stock:

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“Tesla’s future is in many ways the brightest it’s ever been in our view given autonomous, FSD, robotics, and many other technology innovations now on the horizon with 90% of the valuation being driven by autonomous and robotics over the coming years but Musk needs to focus on driving Tesla and not putting his political views first. We maintain our OUTPERFORM and $500 PT.”

Moving forward, investors will look to see some gradual growth over the next few quarters. At worst, Tesla should look to match 2023 and 2024 full-year delivery figures, which could be beaten if the automaker can offer those affordable models by the end of the year.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla delivers 384,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, deploys 9.6 GWh in energy storage

The quarter’s 9.6 GWh energy storage deployment marks one of Tesla’s highest to date.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has released its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. As per the report, the company delivered over 384,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, while deploying 9.6 GWh in energy storage. Vehicle production also reached 410,244 units for the quarter.

Model 3/Y dominates output, ahead of earnings call

Of the 410,244 vehicles produced during the quarter, 396,835 were Model 3 and Model Y units, while 13,409 were attributed to Tesla’s other models, which includes the Cybertruck and Model S/X variants. Deliveries followed a similar pattern, with 373,728 Model 3/Ys delivered and 10,394 from other models, totaling 384,122.

The quarter’s 9.6 GWh energy storage deployment marks one of Tesla’s highest to date, signaling continued strength in the Megapack and Powerwall segments.

Credit: Tesla Investor Relations

Year-on-year deliveries edge down, but energy shows resilience

Tesla will share its full Q2 2025 earnings results after the market closes on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, with a live earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. CT / 5:30 p.m. ET. The company will publish its quarterly update at ir.tesla.com, followed by a Q&A webcast featuring company leadership. Executives such as CEO Elon Musk are expected to be in attendance.

Tesla investors are expected to inquire about several of the company’s ongoing projects in the upcoming Q2 2025 earnings call. Expected topics include the new Model Y ramp across the United States, China, and Germany, as well as the ramp of FSD in territories outside the US and China. Questions about the company’s Robotaxi business, as well as the long-referenced but yet to be announced affordable models are also expected.

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