Investor's Corner
Tesla community comes together for final end-of-quarter Model 3 delivery push
Tesla is hours away from the end of the third quarter, and the carmaker is still pressing hard on its end-of-Q3 delivery push. While the past quarters have been all about the company’s challenges in production, Q3 appears to be all about the electric car maker’s capability to get its vehicles to as many reservation holders as possible. Tesla has adopted a series of programs that allow it to expedite deliveries, from extended operating hours in delivery centers, conducting handovers at customers’ homes, to allowing volunteer owners to aid the company by orienting newcomers with the features and functions of their electric vehicles.
Elon Musk himself has noted that Tesla has gone straight from “production hell” to “delivery logistics hell.” Considering recent estimates about Tesla’s production figures this Q3, this definitely appears to be the case. Even notable Tesla skeptics, after all, have noted that the company would likely reach its self-imposed and arguably ambitious target of producing 50,000-55,000 Model 3 this quarter. Thus, for Q3, at least, it appears that Tesla’s main challenge is really its capability to deliver the vehicles it produces.
Based on social media activity from members of the Tesla community, it appears that the company’s volunteer-boosted delivery initiative continues to be strong. While volunteer Model S, 3, and X owners are not able to help with paperwork, the assistance they provide to new owners is looking to be quite invaluable. This was perfectly captured in a picture shared by the N TX Tesla Owners group on Twitter, which depicted every volunteer helping new owners download the Tesla app even before they are checked in.
@elonmusk this is our favorite photo from today. Every existing owner is helping new owners download the app, before delivery or answering questions while waiting to be checked in. #goteamtesla #dallasdeliveries pic.twitter.com/gkaaFjBQKz
— Tesla Owners Club of North Texas (@NTXTeslaOwners) September 29, 2018
Tesla owner-enthusiasts in Colorado, including social media influencers, have also returned this weekend to aid the company in delivering vehicles. Posts on Twitter from some volunteer groups even mentioned that owners have been taking shifts to assist as many new owners as possible.
#Denver @tesla dominated deliveries this week. Unconfirmed reports of 200+ cars delivered both Friday, Saturday alone. Along side Tesla were 30 volunteers providing 40+ hours helping deliver and teach new owners, including a new #Model3 for @kimbal. Props to @elonmusk and team! pic.twitter.com/bmIaCZQNdg
— Sean Mitchell (@seanmmitchell) September 30, 2018
The @Tesla Owings Mills, Maryland volunteer owner delivery crew! @elonmusk @andrewket @jcadman22 pic.twitter.com/GOkp4BZ51m
— Tesla Mid Atlantic (@TeslaMdAtlantic) September 30, 2018
First and second volunteer shift at @Tesla North Houston. Lots of happy new owners even with the rain! pic.twitter.com/8kVnO0Jshx
— Stephen Pace ❄ (@StephenPace) September 29, 2018
Even in Canada, Tesla’s volunteer owners are out in full force. A Tesla owner from Ontario even noted that the electric car maker is adopting a pretty clever strategy in one of its delivery facilities to enable quick handovers.
#Tesla craziness in Ontario – four car carries arrived while I was attempting to volunteer – cars come in one side, get detailed, matched with the owners and drive out the other side of the complex pic.twitter.com/dUrQTm2vD6
— Avron (@Avron_p) September 29, 2018
Day 2 at the delivery centre helping with orientations on the Model 3. #weekendvibes pic.twitter.com/QCeBI9r60Z
— Aniseh (@ani_seh) September 30, 2018
@elonmusk tens of owner/volunteers from Tesla Owners Club of Ontario are spending countless hours to help @Tesla deliver hundreds of vehicles this week at the International Centre. #loyal #dedicated #enthusiastic pic.twitter.com/DERvHxWiSV
— Gary Mark⚡️Blue Sky Kites 𝕏 🈴 (@blueskykites) September 29, 2018
Tesla has only been in the auto business for 15 years, and as such, it is still a neophythe compared to veterans such as Ford and GM. Despite its short tenure, though, Tesla has developed a following that is almost comparable to some of the tech industry’s most iconic brands such as Apple. The company’s no-compromises approach with its cars, for one, has ultimately allowed it to grow from a niche carmaker that manufactures a small, two-seater electric sports car into a company that is creating what could very well be the electric-powered, second coming of the Ford Model T.
There is no doubt that Tesla still has a lot to learn, as evidenced by the “delivery logistics hell” that the company is currently addressing. But just like its CEO, as Tesla continues to fall forward, it becomes ever closer to achieving goals that were previously thought of as impossible.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst teases self-driving dominance in new note: ‘It’s not even close’
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Investor's Corner
Tesla price target boost from its biggest bear is 95% below its current level
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.