

Investor's Corner
Baird sees potential Tesla (TSLA) upside with Q3 deliveries, Robotaxi event
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been seeing some momentum as of late. But as per Baird analyst Ben Kallo in a recent note, there may be more gains to come for the electric vehicle maker in the coming weeks. In a note to clients, Kallo maintained his “Outperform” rating and $280 per share price target for TSLA stock.
The analyst stated that Tesla shares could see some upside after the company reports its third quarter 2024 vehicle deliveries next week. TSLA stock may also see some more momentum when the company holds its highly-anticipated Robotaxi event on October 10, 2024, the analyst noted.
“The near-term setup is favorable in our view, and we are buyers into both the deliveries released (estimated Oct. 2) and Robotaxi event (Oct. 10)… With the Robotaxi unveil event shortly after the estimated deliveries date, we speculate that even an in-line or weaker deliveries number would be viewed by investors as a look-through with a significant potential catalyst coming soon after,” Kallo wrote in his note.
Baird’s Ben Kallo: “We’ve had the opportunity to ride in different iterations of V12 & most recently 12.5 maybe 2 weeks ago. The pace of progress is accelerating … I think that’s one thing we’re trying to emphasize, this is accelerating at a faster pace than it has in the past!”… pic.twitter.com/ijEHJqsIwI— Tesla New York (@TeslaNY) September 24, 2024
The analyst stated that he is expecting Tesla to unveil a lower-cost electric car together with the Robotaxi at the October 10 event. Such a vehicle could boost the outlook for TSLA stock, Kallo noted.
“We see the launch of a lower-priced vehicle as a positive for volume estimates in 2025, however, we note that switching production to enable a new vehicle would likely come with some factory downtime which may create lumpiness in deliveries,” the analyst wrote.
The Baird analyst highlighted that Tesla’s Q3 numbers are trending positively based on new vehicle registration data from China, as well as the absence of any factory downtime this quarter. Kallo expects Tesla to deliver 480,000 vehicles this Q3, which is well above the current FactSet consensus of 462,000 vehicles, as noted in a MarketWatch report.
Kallo also expects Tesla to deliver 1.83 million vehicles this 2024, which is also higher than FactSet consensus of 1.78 million.
Tesla shares have gone up 35.7% through Tuesday. In comparison, the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF has dropped 3.2%, and the S&P 500 has risen 4.8% in the same period.
Watch the Baird analyst discuss his recent outlook on Tesla in the video below.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla still poised to earn $3B in ZEV credits this year: Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter maintained his $400 per share price target on TSLA stock.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is still poised to earn about $3 billion in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) credits this year despite growing concerns over policy shifts under United States President Donald Trump. This is, at least, according to Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter, who maintained his $400 per share price target and “Overweight” rating on TSLA stock.
Tesla’s ZEV credit revenue
In a recent investor note, Potter acknowledged that Trump’s efforts to undo EV-related incentives could impact Tesla’s ZEV credit income. The analyst noted that these effects would likely not be too drastic, however, even if ZEV credits provide Tesla’s finances with a substantial boost. Last year, Tesla earned about $3.5 billion from regulatory credits, equal to nearly 100% of the company’s FY24 free cash flow, as noted in a Benzinga report.
Potter estimated that the impact of potential regulatory reversals from the Trump administration will likely not be immediate. “Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026,” the Piper Sandler analyst wrote.
Considering his reiterated $400 price target for Tesla stock, Potter seems to be expecting an upside of over 20% for the electric vehicle maker. It should be noted, however, that Tesla is a volatile stock by nature, so huge swings in stock price may happen even without material developments from the company.
Robotaxi developments
The Piper Sandler analyst also highlighted the progress of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) program and Robotaxi developments as potential offsets to regulatory headwinds. Potter pointed to expanding operations in Austin and Tesla’s push to launch Robotaxi services in Phoenix and the Bay Area, pending regulatory approval.
“In our view, these favorable FSD-related developments are likely to overshadow any/all negative commentary arising from lower 2025/2026 estimates,” the analyst wrote.
In addition to rescinding ZEV programs, the Trump administration has proposed ending the $7,500 federal EV credit by September 2025 and rolling back Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT
Tesla reported $2.763 billion in regulatory credit profits last year.

One Tesla analyst is saying that a major stock concern that has been discussed as the Trump administration aims to eliminate many financial crutches for EV and sustainable industries is overblown.
As the White House continues to put an emphasis on natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels, investors are concerned that high-powered sustainability stocks like Tesla stand to take big hits over the coming years.
However, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter believes it is just the opposite, as a new note to investors released on Monday says that the situation, especially regarding regulatory credits, is “not as bad as you think.”
Tesla stacked emissions credits in 2023, while others posted deficits
There have been many things during the Trump administration so far that have led some investors to consider divesting from Tesla altogether. Many people have shied away due to concerns over demand, as the $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit will bow out at the end of Q3.
The Trump White House could also do away with emissions credits, which aim to give automakers a threshold of emissions to encourage EV production and cleaner powertrains. Companies that cannot meet this threshold can buy credits from other companies, and Tesla has benefitted from this program immensely over the past few years.
As the Trump administration considers eliminating this program, investors are concerned that it could significantly impact Tesla’s balance sheet. Potter believes the issue is overblown:
“We frequently receive questions about Tesla’s regulatory credits, and for good reason: the company received ~$3.5B in ‘free money’ last year, representing roughly 100% of FY24 free cash flow. So it’s fair to ask: will recent regulatory changes threaten Tesla’s earnings outlook? In short, we think the answer is no, at least not in 2025. We think that while it’s true that the U.S. government is committed to rescinding financial support for the EV and battery industries, Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026. This latter figure represents a modest reduction vs. our previous expectation…in our view, there’s no need for drastic estimate revisions. Note that it’s difficult to forecast the financial impact of regulatory credits — even Tesla itself struggles with this — but the attached analysis represents an honest effort.”
Tesla’s regulatory credit profitability by year is:
- 2020: $1.58 billion
- 2021: $1.465 billion
- 2022: $1.776 billion
- 2023: $1.79 billion
- 2024: $2.763 billion
Potter and Piper Sandler maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, and kept their $400 price target.
Tesla shares are trading at $329.63 at 11:39 a.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Tesla ‘Model Q’ gets bold prediction from Deutsche Bank that investors will love
Tesla’s Model Q could be on the way soon, and a new note from Deutsche Bank thinks it will contribute to Q4 deliveries.

The Tesla “Model Q” has been in the rumor mill for the company for several years, but a recent note from Wall Street firm Deutsche Bank seems to indicate that it could be on its way in the near future.
This comes as Tesla has been indicating for several quarters that its development of affordable models was “on track” for the first half of 2025. The company did not say it would unveil the vehicles in the first half, but many are anticipating that more cost-friendly models could be revealed to the public soon.
Potential affordable Tesla “Model 2/Model Q” test car spotted anew in Giga Texas
The Deutsche Bank note refers to one of the rumored affordable models as the “Model Q,” but we’ve also seen it referred to as the “Model 2,” amongst other names. Tesla has not officially coined any of its upcoming vehicles as such, but these are more of a universally accepted phrase to identify them, at least for now.
The rumors stem from sentiments regarding Tesla’s 2025 delivery projections, which are tempered as the company seeks to maintain a steady pace compared to 2023 and 2024, when it reported 1.8 million deliveries.
Deutsche Bank’s analysts believe the deliveries could be around 1.58 million, but they state this is a cautious stance that could be impacted by several things, including the potential launch of the Model Q, which they believe will make its way to market in Q4:
“Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume calling for 1.58m vehicle deliveries (-12% YoY) vs. consensus +1.62m, with the timing of Model Q rollout as the key swing factor (we now assume only 25k in Q4). In China, Tesla will introduce the Model Y L this fall (6 inch longer wheel base allowing for larger 3-row seating with six seats).”
Interestingly, the same firm also predicted that the Model Q would launch in the first half of the year based on a note that was released in early December 2024.
Those estimations came from a reported meeting that Deutsche Bank had with Tesla late last year, where it said it aimed to launch the Model Q for less than $30,000 and aimed for it to compete with cars like the Volkswagen ID.3 and BYD Dolphin.
Tesla’s Q2 Earnings Call is slated for this Wednesday and could reveal some additional details about the affordable models.
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