One of the most notable portions, for electric vehicle drivers at least, of President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better plan is the introduction of a massive $12,500 EV tax credit that will be offered to those who choose to drive sustainable cars. Now, new language revisions in the bill could see the EV tax credit turn into a “refundable credit,” which would give those who drive EVs an opportunity to receive a refund check that would put cash in their pockets.
Following Teslarati’s report on the EV Tax Credit portion of the Build Back Better plan over the weekend, the language in the proposal has been revised to reflect a refundable tax credit scenario for those who purchase EVs. Previously, the tax credit was used precisely as a “credit” would work. If a U.S. tax filer owed money on their taxes but bought an EV, the credit would eliminate the balance the filer owes on their taxes but would not put money in the filer’s pocket directly.
U.S. Senate Panel looks to boost EV Tax Credit to $12,500: What we know so far
Now, this may change, as the new language in the bill states that the credit would now be able to be obtained by the filer. The excess credit would then be converted into a check and sent to the filer, putting the amount in the EV driver’s pocket. Previously, if someone owed $2,500 in taxes and bought an EV that offered a $7,500 tax credit, it would eliminate the $2,500 balance, but the remaining funds would not be given to the driver. Instead, the additional funds would be returned to the government.
The new language would change the scenario completely. If someone owes $2,500 in taxes and bought an EV that offers a $7,500 tax credit, the $2,500 balance would be eliminated, and the remaining $5,000 would be sent to the driver in a check. CNET first reported the changes.
The advantages of an actual refundable credit could bring more effectiveness to the EV tax credit program altogether. Instead of people losing out on the remaining credit that is returned back to the government following their tax balance being eliminated, they will now be able to put the remaining funds back into their pocket, which could lead to several advantages for the car buyer. They could use the credit to install a home charger or put the entire balance toward their car loan.
Additionally, language would now give disqualified automakers, like Tesla and GM, who have sold 200,000 EVs and cannot offer the credit, the opportunity to provide the refundable tax credit for up to five years. After the first five years, the credit will only be available to use by EVs that are manufactured in the United States. Currently, the language regarding vehicle type price caps, which applies to SUVs, Trucks, and Vans up to $80,000 and “other,” which includes sedans, sits at $55,000 and under, still is present in the bill.
Income limits have been lowered to $500,000 for joint families, $375,000 for the head of household, and $250,000 for individual filers. These are relatively drastic reductions, especially as single filers were eligible with incomes of up to $400,000, and joint filers were not disqualified until the $800,000 yearly income mark.
Finally, used EVs will now qualify if the vehicle is at least two years old, costs under $25,000, and the household has an income of less than $75,000 for single filers and $150,000 for joint filers.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
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Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
