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Tesla battery degradation analysis reveals how long a battery might last

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Teslanomics by Ben Sullins looks to answer the age-old question asked by likely every Tesla owner and would-be buyer of the luxury electric car: how long will my Tesla battery last?

By analyzing battery degradation data that’s been crowdsourced by Tesla owners worldwide – first compiled by Maarten Steinbuch in a Google sheet – Teslanomics aims to help owners better visualize the expected range loss in their Tesla over time. Maarten first tapped into a Dutch Belgium Tesla forum to initiate data gathering which required Model S owners to fully drain their Tesla battery to a near-zero state of charge before charging it back to a 100% capacity. The process theoretically will provide the most accuracy in terms of determining a battery’s true capacity. This is contrary to early beliefs that a battery undergoes a “training effect” if not fully depleted and charged to full capacity. Tesla owners that consistently charged to a state of charge between 50% to 75% often reported seeing less overall battery range, presumably because the charge state within each cylindrical lithium ion cell that makes up the overall battery pack is “out of balance”.

Ben’s analysis of battery state of charge data by vehicle age, number of battery charges and number of miles/km driven, can be visualized through an interactive chart which we provided below. The data can also be further broken down by region.

It’s worth noting that battery performance and longevity being highlighted by Teslanomics is based on Tesla’s 18650 lithium ion battery cell that’s currently being used in Model S and Model X vehicles. On the other hand, Tesla’s massive Gigafactory facility in Nevada began mass production of its newest high performance and high energy density 2170 cell early this year. The 2170 battery cells are currently being used in Tesla’s Powerpack 2 and Powerwall 2 energy storage systems, and will become the foundation for the upcoming Model 3.

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Tesla believes that the 2170 is perfect for electric vehicles, striking the ideal balance between cost, density, weight and performance. As such, the company has plans to eventually transition its entire fleet of vehicles to the newest battery cell. If history is any indicator, Tesla is unlikely to provide more than 2 weeks notice of the change to minimize any unnecessary impacts to sales of existing vehicles.

Though the battery degradation data along with the accompanying analysis by Teslanomics is based only on a small overall sample set of Tesla owners, the results do align with real world data from a high mileage Model S that registered over 200k mi (322k km). Electric mobility company Tesloop reported a 6% loss in range after 200k miles of driving.

Looking farther ahead to the 2170 cell-based vehicles, we expect battery degradation to become even more negligible, especially as Tesla continues to implement learnings captured through billions of miles driven by current vehicles equipped with the 18650 packs.

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I'm passionate about clean technology, sustainability and life. I've worked in manufacturing, IT, project management and environmental...and enjoy unpacking complex topics in layman's terms. TSLA investor. Find more of my words on my website or follow me on Twitter for all the latest. Tesla Referral link: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Energy

Tesla China’s Megafactory helps boost Shanghai’s battery exports by 20%: report

Located in the Lingang New Area of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the Tesla Megafactory has been running at full throttle since opening in February.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Reports from China have indicated that the Tesla Shanghai Megafactory has become a notable player in China’s booming battery export market.

Located in the Lingang New Area of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the Tesla Megafactory has been running at full throttle since opening in February. It produces Tesla Megapack batteries for domestic and international use.

Tesla Shanghai Megafactory

As noted in a report from Sina Finance, the Tesla Shanghai Megafactory’s output of Megapack batteries helped drive a notable rise in lithium battery shipments from the city in the first three quarters of 2025. This is quite impressive as the Megafactory is a rather young facility, though it has been steadily increasing its production capacity.

“The establishment of this benchmark factory has not only driven the rapid development of Shanghai’s energy storage industry but also become a new growth engine for foreign trade exports. Driven by the Tesla energy storage factory’s opening, Shanghai’s lithium battery exports reached 32.15 billion yuan ($4.5 billion) in the first three quarters, a 20.7% increase,” the publication wrote.

Ultimately, the Shanghai Megafactory has proved helpful to the city’s “new three” industries, which are comprised of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic systems. Exports of the “new three” products reached 112.17 billion yuan ($15.7 billion), a 6.3% year-over-year increase during the same period. The city’s total trade volume grew 5.4% year-over-year as well, with exports up 11.3%, driven largely by the clean energy sector’s performance.

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Energy storage is helping Shanghai

Since opening in February, the Shanghai Megafactory has been firing on all cylinders. In late July, Tesla Energy announced that the new battery factory has successfully produced its 1,000th Megapack unit. That’s quite impressive for a facility that, at the time, had only been operational for less than six months. 

Speed has always been a trademark of the Shanghai Megafactory. Similar to Tesla’s other key facilities in China, the Megafactory was constructed quickly. The facility started its construction on May 23, 2024. Less than a year later, the site officially started producing Megapack batteries. By late March 2025, Tesla China noted that it had shipped the first batch of Megapack batteries from the Shanghai plant to foreign markets.

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Energy

Tesla recalls Powerwall 2 units in Australia

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(Credit: nathanwoodgc /Instagram)

Tesla will recall Powerwall 2 units in Australia after a handful of property owners reported fires that caused “minor property damage.” The fires were attributed to cells used by Tesla in the Powerwall 2.

Tesla Powerwall is a battery storage unit that retains energy from solar panels and is used by homeowners and businesses to maintain power in the event of an outage. It also helps alleviate the need to rely on the grid, which can help stabilize power locally.

Powerwall owners can also enroll in the Virtual Power Plant (VPP) program, which allows them to sell energy back to the grid, helping to reduce energy bills. Tesla revealed last year that over 100,000 Powerwalls were participating in the program.

Tesla announces 100k Powerwalls are participating in Virtual Power Plants

The Australia Competition and Consumer Commission said in a filing that it received several reports from owners of fires that led to minor damage. The Australian government agency did not disclose the number of units impacted by the recall.

The issue is related to the cells, which Tesla sources from a third-party company.

Anyone whose Powerwall 2 unit is impacted by the recall will be notified through the Tesla app, the company said.

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Energy

Tesla’s new Megablock system can power 400,000 homes in under a month

Tesla also unveiled the Megapack 3, the latest iteration of its flagship utility scale battery.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has unveiled the Megablock and Megapack 3, the latest additions to its industrial-scale battery storage solution lineup. 

The products highlight Tesla Energy’s growing role in the company, as well as the division’s growing efforts to provide sustainable energy solutions for industrial-scale applications.

Megablock targets speed and scale

During the “Las Megas” event in Las Vegas, Tesla launched Megablock, a pre-engineered medium-voltage block designed to integrate Megapack 3 units in a plug-and-play system. Capable of 20 MWh AC with a 25-year life cycle and more than 10,000 cycles, the Megablock could achieve 91% round-trip efficiency at medium voltage, inclusive of auxiliary loads.

Tesla emphasized that Megablock can be installed 23% faster with up to 40% lower construction costs. The platform eliminates above-ground cabling through a new flexible busbar assembly and delivers site-level density of 248 MWh per acre. With Megablock, Tesla is also aiming to commission 1 GWh in just 20 business days, or enough to power 400,000 homes in less than a month. 

“With Megablock, we are targeting to commission 1 GWh in 20 business days, which is the equivalent of bringing power to 400,000 homes in less than a month. It’s crazy. How are we planning to do that? Like most things at Tesla, we are ruthlessly attacking every opportunity to save our customers time, simplify the process, remove steps, (and) automate as much as we can,” the company said. 

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Megapack 3 is all about simplicity

The Megapack 3 is Tesla’s next-generation utility battery, designed with a simplified architecture that cuts 78% of connections compared to the previous version. Its thermal bay is drastically simplified, and it uses a Model Y heat pump on steroids. The battery weighs about 86,000 pounds and holds 5 MWh of usable AC energy. Tesla engineers incorporated a larger battery module and a new 2.8-liter LFP cell co-developed with the company’s cell team.

The Megapack 3 is designed for serviceability, and it features easier front access and no roof penetrations. About 75% of Megapack 3’s total mass is battery cells, with individual modules weighing as much as a Cybertruck. It’s also tough, with an ambient operating temperature range from -40C to 60C. This should allow the Megapack 3 to operate optimally from the coldest to the hottest regions on the planet.

Production is set to begin at Tesla’s Houston Megafactory in late 2026, with planned capacity of 50 GWh per year. Additional supply will come from Tesla’s 7 GWh LFP facility in Nevada, which is expected to open in 2025, as well as with third-party partners.

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