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Tesla battery degradation analysis reveals how long a battery might last

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Teslanomics by Ben Sullins looks to answer the age-old question asked by likely every Tesla owner and would-be buyer of the luxury electric car: how long will my Tesla battery last?

By analyzing battery degradation data that’s been crowdsourced by Tesla owners worldwide – first compiled by Maarten Steinbuch in a Google sheet – Teslanomics aims to help owners better visualize the expected range loss in their Tesla over time. Maarten first tapped into a Dutch Belgium Tesla forum to initiate data gathering which required Model S owners to fully drain their Tesla battery to a near-zero state of charge before charging it back to a 100% capacity. The process theoretically will provide the most accuracy in terms of determining a battery’s true capacity. This is contrary to early beliefs that a battery undergoes a “training effect” if not fully depleted and charged to full capacity. Tesla owners that consistently charged to a state of charge between 50% to 75% often reported seeing less overall battery range, presumably because the charge state within each cylindrical lithium ion cell that makes up the overall battery pack is “out of balance”.

Ben’s analysis of battery state of charge data by vehicle age, number of battery charges and number of miles/km driven, can be visualized through an interactive chart which we provided below. The data can also be further broken down by region.

It’s worth noting that battery performance and longevity being highlighted by Teslanomics is based on Tesla’s 18650 lithium ion battery cell that’s currently being used in Model S and Model X vehicles. On the other hand, Tesla’s massive Gigafactory facility in Nevada began mass production of its newest high performance and high energy density 2170 cell early this year. The 2170 battery cells are currently being used in Tesla’s Powerpack 2 and Powerwall 2 energy storage systems, and will become the foundation for the upcoming Model 3.

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Tesla believes that the 2170 is perfect for electric vehicles, striking the ideal balance between cost, density, weight and performance. As such, the company has plans to eventually transition its entire fleet of vehicles to the newest battery cell. If history is any indicator, Tesla is unlikely to provide more than 2 weeks notice of the change to minimize any unnecessary impacts to sales of existing vehicles.

Though the battery degradation data along with the accompanying analysis by Teslanomics is based only on a small overall sample set of Tesla owners, the results do align with real world data from a high mileage Model S that registered over 200k mi (322k km). Electric mobility company Tesloop reported a 6% loss in range after 200k miles of driving.

Looking farther ahead to the 2170 cell-based vehicles, we expect battery degradation to become even more negligible, especially as Tesla continues to implement learnings captured through billions of miles driven by current vehicles equipped with the 18650 packs.

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I'm passionate about clean technology, sustainability and life. I've worked in manufacturing, IT, project management and environmental...and enjoy unpacking complex topics in layman's terms. TSLA investor. Find more of my words on my website or follow me on Twitter for all the latest. Tesla Referral link: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Energy

Tesla inks multi-billion-dollar deal with LG Energy Solution to avoid tariff pressure

Tesla has reportedly secured a sizable partnership with LGES for LFP cells, and there’s an extra positive out of it.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has reportedly inked a multi-billion-dollar deal with LG Energy Solution in an effort to avoid tariff pressure and domesticate more of its supply chain.

Reuters is reporting that Tesla and LGES, a South Korean battery supplier of the automaker, signed a $4.3 billion deal for energy storage system batteries. The cells are going to be manufactured by LGES at its U.S. factory located in Michigan, the report indicates. The batteries will be the lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, chemistry.

Tesla delivers 384,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, deploys 9.6 GWh in energy storage

It is a move Tesla is making to avoid buying cells and parts from overseas as the Trump White House continues to use tariffs to prioritize domestic manufacturing.

LGES announced earlier today that it had signed a $4.3 billion contract to supply LFP cells over three years to a company, but it did not identify the customer, nor did the company state whether the batteries would be used in automotive or energy storage applications.

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The deal is advantageous for both companies. Tesla is going to alleviate its reliance on battery cells that are built out of the country, so it’s going to be able to take some financial pressure off itself.

For LGES, the company has reported that it has experienced slowed demand for its cells in terms of automotive applications. It planned to offset this demand lag with more projects involving the cells in energy storage projects. This has been helped by the need for these systems at data centers used for AI.

During the Q1 Earnings Call, Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja confirmed that the company’s energy division had been impacted by the need to source cells from China-based suppliers. He went on to say that the company would work on “securing additional supply chain from non-China-based suppliers.”

It seems as if Tesla has managed to secure some of this needed domestic supply chain.

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Tesla Shanghai Megafactory produces 1,000th Megapack for export to Europe

The Shanghai Megafactory was able to hit this milestone less than six months after it started producing the Megapack. 

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla Energy has announced a fresh milestone for its newest Megapack factory. As per the electric vehicle maker, the Shanghai Megafactory has successfully produced its 1,000th Megapack battery. 

The facility was able to hit this milestone less than six months after it started producing the grid-scale battery system. 

New Tesla Megapack Milestone

As per Tesla Asia in a post on its official accounts on social media platform X, the 1,000th Megapack unit that was produced at the Shanghai Megafactory would be exported to Europe. As noted in a CNEV Post report, Tesla’s energy products are currently deployed in over 65 countries and regions globally. This allows Tesla Energy to compete in energy markets that are both emerging and mature.

To commemorate the 1,000th Megapack produced at the Shanghai Megafactory, the Tesla China team posted with the grid-scale battery with celebratory balloons that spelled “Megapack 1000.” The milestone was celebrated by Tesla enthusiasts on social media, especially since the Shanghai Megafactory only started its operations earlier this year.

Quick Megafactory Ramp

The Shanghai Megafactory, similar to Tesla’s other key facilities in China, was constructed quickly. The facility started its construction on May 23, 2024, and it was hailed as Tesla’s first entry storage project outside the United States. Less than a year later, on February 11, 2025, the Shanghai Megafactory officially started producing Megapack batteries. And by March 21, 2025, Tesla China noted that it had shipped the first batch of Megapack batteries from the Shanghai plant to foreign markets.

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While the Shanghai Megafactory is still not at the same level of output as Tesla’s Lathrop Megafactory, which produces about 10,000 Megapacks per year, its ramp seems to be quite steady and quick. It would then not be surprising if Tesla China announces the Shanghai Megafactory’s 2,000th Megapack milestone in the coming months.

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Energy

Tesla launches first Virtual Power Plant in UK – get paid to use solar

Tesla has launched its first-ever Virtual Power Plant program in the United Kingdom.

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Credit: Tesla Energy | X

Tesla has launched its first-ever Virtual Power Plant program in the United Kingdom. This feature enables users of solar panels and energy storage systems to sell their excess energy back to the grid.

Tesla is utilizing Octopus Energy, a British renewable energy company that operates in multiple markets, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States, as the provider for the VPP launch in the region.

The company states that those who enroll in the program can earn up to £300 per month.

Tesla has operated several VPP programs worldwide, most notably in California, Texas, Connecticut, and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico. This is not the first time Tesla has operated a VPP outside the United States, as there are programs in Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.

This is its first in the UK:

Tesla is not the only company that is working with Octopus Energy in the UK for the VPP, as it joins SolarEdge, GivEnergy, and Enphase as other companies that utilize the Octopus platform for their project operations.

It has been six years since Tesla launched its first VPP, as it started its first in Australia back in 2019. In 2024, Tesla paid out over $10 million to those participating in the program.

Tesla VPP program in California hits new capacity milestone

Participating in the VPP program that Tesla offers not only provides enrolled individuals with the opportunity to earn money, but it also contributes to grid stabilization by supporting local energy grids.

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