Investor's Corner
No universal charging standards, Tesla wins
After writing about industrial networking and device standardization in the manufacturing automation space for ten years, I feel quite confident in saying any universal agreement on charging standards are far, far away.
Why, you say? In the manufacturing world, devices and systems need to communicate control signals via fieldbus and ethernet networks in order to monitor many types of applications. Multiple networks standards have been present for twenty plus years, with big automation suppliers — Siemens and Honeywell— in different networking camps, and there’s no universal agreement on one single network.
Sound familiar? CHAdeMO, Tesla Supercharger network and, of course, SAE Combo – these connecting standard are all driven by separate groups of companies. Some companies, such as GM, have no interest in building out a charging network, while German car companies now know the need for a charging platform to sustain a long game strategy.
With so many late entrants into the electric car market, the clear winner for these so-called charging wars is Tesla — not a believer that there is.
Why? The company’s superior Supercharging rates and deployment strategy, including destination charging, will pay dividends for years. For example, a recent Kickstarter campaign started by Quick Charge Power LLC is trying to develop an adapter that allows any battery electric vehicle from North American or Japan to use Tesla’s HPWC. According to the page, the adapter “will only work with Tesla AC charging equipment: the UMC mobile connector or the HPWC (wall connector) and destination chargers”.
With so many destination charging spots, a JDapter could make Bolts and next-gen Leafs a reality for High-Power Wall Chargers.
The company calls it the JDapter, and the big get could be Tesla’s Destination Charging system. In two years from now, a Bolt may have a reservation for a charge session at a hotel ahead of a Tesla owner.
A recent Facebook discussion raised this issue:
“The sites — destination charging — where Tesla installed the HPWCs are the ones who pay for the power; it seems reasonable that they should decide who should charge there. Tesla is even willing to include a J1772 charger with every pair of HPWCs and pay for that installation too.”
Quick Charge Power states that each establishment can create its own policy and has the right to exclude non-Tesla automobiles. And, of course, the adapters can’t work on the Supercharger network.
As enthusiasts and owners, how do we view this development? I feel it’s a win-win for the Tesla brand and to Musk’s ultimate goal of mass electrification.
Tesla is supremely positioned as the most coveted technology and charging platform out there. This is a Silicon Valley company and Musk knows the importance of being THE electric vehicle platform…think Google. As mainstream consumers become aware of Tesla’s direct relationship with its Superchargers, a Bolt and Model 3 charging line issue at a hotel should be minimal. Most will choose Tesla for their first foray into electric cars, purely on a charging criteria.
Plus, non-Tesla charge stations plans are in the works. Recently, Volkswagen, BMW and ChargePoint announced plans to expand DC, fast-charging networks on the coasts.
Also, the Volkswagen diesel rigging scandal is costing them greatly. A portion of the $15 billion settlement goes to promote zero-emission vehicles. The settlement payout, back in the summer, was to be $2 billion and it could go hydrogen filling stations and electric-car charging stations in states like California.
This is good news for Tesla as more stations appear as a result of the company’s adapters. Earlier this year, Tesla applied for a new patent on a CHadeMO and SAE J1772 adapter earlier this year. In the near future, a Tesla owner could be traveling anywhere, not just on the Supercharger network.
The standardization movement is noble but will be bloody for years. Musk and Tesla knew this when it struck out on its electrification strategy and, for now, all roads lead back to Tesla.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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