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Analysts cut Rivian price targets amid tariff concerns  

Baird drops Rivian’s price target to $14 while Bernstein slashes to $6.10. Rising costs + tariff pressure weigh on RIVN before Q1 earnings.

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(Credit: Rivian)

Analysts have cut Rivian price targets (PT) amid concerns over President Trump’s tariffs.

Baird is the latest investment firm to cut its Rivian price target. Baird analysts slashed Rivian’s PT from $16 to $14 while maintaining a Neutral rating ahead of the electric vehicle (EV) maker’s Q1 2025 earnings. Baird’s downgrade reflects caution in the sustainable energy and mobility sectors through late 2025.

Rivian reported producing 14,611 vehicles and delivering 8,640 in the first quarter at its Normal, Illinois plant. The company reaffirmed its full-year delivery guidance of “46,000 to 51,000” units, holding steady despite headwinds.

Baird’s adjustment aligns with broader market uncertainties impacting Rivian’s outlook. Based on GuruFocus, the firm joins 29 analysts setting an average one-year price target of $14.54 for Rivian, with estimates ranging from a high of $23.00 to a low of $6.10.

Bernstein maintained its Underperform rating for Rivian, giving the EV automaker a $6.10 price target. The firm’s forecast suggests Rivian could drop 47% from Friday’s $11.47 close. Bernstein’s Rivian prediction cites rising tariff pressures and financial challenges, particularly with tariffs on imported batteries set to increase in May.

“We expect Rivian to discontinue its Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) variants, downgrade volume, and EBIT guidance, and be forced to consider raising fresh equity,” analysts led by Daniel Roeska wrote.

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Bernstein slashed Rivian’s 2025 delivery forecast to 37,000 units, 20% below the automaker’s guidance midpoint. It also projects a negative $2.2 billion adjusted EBITDA for Rivian in Q1 2025. Analysts also flagged risks to Rivian’s gross profit breakeven goal, which is tied to Volkswagen’s planned $1 billion equity investment.

RBC Capital also trimmed its price target for Rivian to $10, anticipating a Q1 sales uptick from tariff-driven demand but warning that earnings may not fully capture trade impacts.

Rivian’s Q1 earnings, scheduled for May 6 after market close, will shed light on its ability to navigate tariffs and financial pressures. While the EV maker maintains its production goals, analysts signal a bumpy road ahead as costs rise and market dynamics shift. Rivian’s focus on scaling remains critical, but tariff burdens and equity needs could test its resilience in a competitive EV landscape.

Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk teases TSMC as potential Terafab partner

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SpaceX Terafab rendering
SpaceX Terafab rendering

Elon Musk has acknowledged that early discussions with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) could bring the company into his ambitious Terafab semiconductor project, signaling a possible partnership with the world’s leading contract chipmaker.

Musk confirmed that early talks are underway, but as of right now, they are “just discussions.” There is no confirmation of a deal nor dismissal of the possibility of one, leaving open the prospect of one of the largest advanced-chip collaborations under discussion in the U.S.

The report that speculated on potential discussions between Terafab and TSMC comes from Tim Culpan, who outlined a few ways the collaboration could operate. One is TSMC using the project as an “anchor customer” for future facilities in Texas, potentially contributing process expertise, operational know-how, or capacity while Terafab provides capital, long-term purchase commitments, or both.

Tesla and SpaceX jointly developed the Terafab project, with Intel already participating on the tech side. Elon Musk announced the project in March, and it intends to produce more than one terawatt of AI compute capacity annually once fully built.

Elon Musk’s Terafab project locks up massive new partner

Company statements place the first phase at approximately $16.8 billion in cost, with later filings pointing to a total that could reach well into the tens of billions across multiple stages.

Intel joined the effort in April 2026 and is expected to supply its 14A manufacturing process for the full-scale plant.

Musk has said existing suppliers, including Samsung and TSMC, remain important for near-term needs; Tesla already has production arrangements with Samsung for AI5 and AI6 chips, but that future demand from Optimus robots, Cybercab vehicles, and planned space-based data centers will eventually exceed what the global industry can currently deliver.

Terafab is positioned as the long-term answer to that projected shortfall, and Tesla did something similar during COVID to avoid a chip shortage. This is just a much larger-scale solution.

If the partnership were to materialize, it would add TSMC’s industry-leading strategies to a project that already combines Tesla’s and SpaceX’s capital and offtake with Intel’s process technology. For now, the only public confirmation is Musk’s brief acknowledgement that conversations are occurring.

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Tesla reveals early Robotaxi charging strategy, showing scrappy DNA

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s early strategy for charging units operating within its Robotaxi fleet reveals that the company surely has not lost any of that scrappy DNA that took it from an unlikely success story to the most valuable carmaker in the world.

An observer at a Tesla Supercharger in Austin spotted ten total Robotaxi vehicles arrive: one Cybercab and nine Model Y units. A Tesla employee was waiting at the lot and allowed each unit to park itself; every car that arrived had nobody in it.

Tesla wins FCC approval for wireless Cybercab charging system

The Tesla employee would walk around and plug each car in, adjusting the parking if needed:

It’s a very interesting strategy, but extremely understandable at this early point in the Robotaxi program. It’s only been out for about 15 months, and Cybercab just entered the fleet in early September.

On top of that, Tesla is still working tirelessly on its wireless charging apparatus, and a new patent was just published regarding that product last week.

However, this is just another example of how Tesla still has plenty of that scrappy DNA leftover from the “production hell” days, when CEO Elon Musk slept on the floor of the factory, employees were working crazy hours, Tesla was building Sprung Structures to build cars in, and the company was tiptoeing on the brink of bankruptcy.

For now, Tesla is utilizing a simple system for recharging its ride-hailing vehicles, and that is a Tesla employee doing it manually until another solution presents itself. Sure, it’s not the most high-tech thing, and it certainly is not what people might have expected at this point in time, but it works, and it’s keeping the entire suite running.

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Tesla Robotaxi expands hours, Musk explains why it’s been a challenge

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is expanding its Robotaxi service hours by pushing the time back by one hour, keeping the ride-hailing service operational until 11 p.m., one hour later than previously.

CEO Elon Musk confirmed the change and offered a specific reason the expansion has been gradual: the system still needs to reliably avoid small pets that are difficult to see after dark, as they commonly blend into the color of the road, especially when they’re grey.

The latest adjustment restores only a fraction of the operating window the service once held. When paid Robotaxi rides began in Austin on June 22, 2025, vehicles ran from 6 a.m. to midnight.

Tesla Robotaxi will be a 24/7 service: here’s when

In September 2025, Tesla lengthened the day to a 2 a.m. close, producing a 20-hour window that stayed in place for most of the following year. By early August of this year, the cutoff had already been pulled back; an August 26 update formalized hours of 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. across Austin and several other markets.

The October move to 11 p.m. therefore leaves the Austin day one hour shorter than the original launch schedule and three hours shorter than the 2025 peak.

Musk addressed the constraint directly after the announcement. “The main thing we’re trying to solve is making sure that we don’t run over pets when they’re hard to see at night,” he wrote. “Literally trying to avoid grey kittens on grey tarmac in the dark.”

The example points to a low-contrast perception problem in which a small animal can blend into the road surface under limited lighting.

Tesla’s vehicles rely on cameras and neural-network processing rather than lidar; Musk has previously argued that advanced vision software can extract useful information even in low light by analyzing photon counts, but the pet-detection case remains the stated limiter in later hours.

The modest schedule change arrives alongside faster growth in the purpose-built Cybercab fleet. Texas registration data tracked by observers showed the Austin Cybercab count rising sharply in recent weeks, reaching 169 vehicles after more than 100 were added in a short span.

Tesla has indicated that a broader shift toward 24-hour operation is tied to the upcoming FSD v15 software release expected this month on Robotaxi vehicles. Until that capability is validated for the edge cases Musk described, the company continues to add service time incrementally rather than jumping straight to overnight coverage.

The one-hour extension gives Austin riders a later option for evening trips while the underlying detection work continues.

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