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Rocket Lab aces first Electron rocket launch from US soil
After many delays, Rocket Lab has successfully launched an Electron rocket from US soil for the first time.
The company’s small Electron rocket lifted off at 6 pm EST (23:00 UTC), January 24th, from a pad built at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility. About nine minutes later, the Electron upper stage reached low Earth orbit (LEO) and shut down its Rutherford Vacuum engine. 90 minutes after liftoff, the rocket finished deploying three new Hawkeye 360 Earth observation satellites, marking the successful completion of Rocket Lab’s first American launch.
Rocket Lab’s workhorse rocket is relatively unique. Electron is the only rocket in the world to successfully reach orbit with structures built almost entirely out of carbon fiber composites. It’s also the only orbital-class rocket in the world that uses engines with battery-powered pumps. Electron measures 18 meters (59 ft) tall, 1.2 meters (4 ft) wide, and weighs about 13 tons (~28,500 lbs) at liftoff, making it one of the smallest orbital rockets ever. It sells for about $7.5 million and can launch up to 200 kilograms (440 lb) to a sun-synchronous orbit or 300 kilograms (660 lb) to LEO.
The update that's rolling out to the fleet makes full use of the front and rear steering travel to minimize turning circle. In this case a reduction of 1.6 feet just over the air— Wes (@wmorrill3) April 16, 2024
Electron is by far the cheapest widely-available option for a dedicated rocket launch. Although a fully-utilized Electron costs more than $25,000 per kilogram, Rocket Lab has found a decent number of customers that find the benefits worth the cost premium. SpaceX currently offers rideshare launch services for just $5,500 per kilogram. But a dedicated Electron launch buys customers white-glove service and control over the exact timing and target orbit, among other perks.
Many companies are developing orbital transfer vehicles (space tugs) to combine the affordable cost of rideshare launches with customized orbits and deployment timing, but rideshare payloads will always have to grapple with inflexible launch timing. SpaceX will not delay a launch carrying 50-100+ other payloads because one satellite is running behind schedule.
Rocket Lab’s history shows that plenty of companies are willing to pay far more for the convenience of a direct launch. Electron’s first launch from US soil was the rocket’s 30th successful launch and 33rd launch since its May 2017 debut. In 2022, Rocket Lab managed to launch eight times in eight months and nine times overall. Had bad winter weather not conspired to delay its first US launch, the company would have broken into the double digits for the first time and likely kept its monthly launch streak alive.
Sisyphean delays
Rocket Lab’s first American launch is no stranger to delays. The company announced plans to build a US launch site in October 2018. At the time, Rocket Lab hoped to launch its first Electron out of Virginia’s NASA Wallops Flight Facility as early as Q3 2019. For a number of reasons, many of which were outside of Rocket Lab’s control, that didn’t happen.
Rocket Lab began constructing its Launch Complex 2 (LC-2) pad in Virginia in February 2019 and finished construction by the start of 2020. At that point, the then-private company stated that LC-2 was on track to host its first Electron rocket launch as early as Q2 2020. In Q2, Rocket Lab even shipped an Electron to Virginia and completed a range of pad shakedown tests, including a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and static fire test.
Rocket Lab isn’t entirely free of fault. However, nearly all of the blame for that delay appears to lie with NASA, who required that Rocket Lab use the agency’s own software for a new kind of “flight termination system.” Rocket Lab had already successfully developed and repeatedly flown its own autonomous flight termination system for use at its New Zealand launch site. AFTS replaces a human-in-the-loop with software that monitors a rocket and decides if it needs to protect populated areas by triggering explosive charges that will destroy the vehicle.
NASA’s software was plagued by years of delays, causing the payload assigned to Electron’s US launch debut to change repeatedly. In 2019, it was supposed to be a Space Test Program (STP) mission for the US Air Force. From 2020 to 2021, it was supposed to be NASA’s CAPSTONE mission to the Moon. Both missions were ultimately launched at Rocket Lab’s primary launch site in New Zealand.
Only in January 2023, almost three years after Rocket Lab was first ready to go, did Electron finally lift off from US soil with a trio of Hawkeye 360 radio surveillance satellites in tow. The mission was the first of Electron launches purchased by Hawkeye 360 to launch 15 satellites. Rocket Lab intends to launch again from LC-2 in the near future and has already shipped a second Electron rocket to Virginia.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
