News
Rocket Lab assembling first reusable Neutron rocket hardware
Rocket Lab appears to have made significant progress since revealing the state of hardware development for its next-generation Neutron rocket in a September 2022 investor update.
At the time, the company shared photos of early work on prototypes of smaller Neutron structural elements, as well as progress building the giant molds that will be used to ‘lay up’ the rocket’s carbon fiber composite tanks and airframe. Rocket Lab also showed off acquisitions of some of the supersized manufacturing equipment that will be used to build the giant rocket, as well as the beginnings of a dedicated Neutron factory in Virginia.
Four months later, photos shared by CEO Peter Beck show that Rocket Lab has progressed to full-scale carbon fiber hardware manufacturing. In December 2022, Beck shared a photo of a full-size Neutron tank dome in the middle of production. A month later, Beck shared a photo of work on both halves of a Neutron booster tank dome. Measuring around seven meters (23 ft) wide, the latter component is already on track to become one of the largest carbon fiber structures ever prepared for a rocket once the halves are joined. And once two more halves are built and assembled, Rocket Lab could soon be ready to start testing full-scale Neutron tank hardware – a crucial milestone for any new rocket.
The update that's rolling out to the fleet makes full use of the front and rear steering travel to minimize turning circle. In this case a reduction of 1.6 feet just over the air— Wes (@wmorrill3) April 16, 2024
Announced in March 2021 and properly unveiled in December 2021, Neutron is a partially-reusable two-stage rocket designed to launch up to 15 tons to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) using liquid methane and oxygen propellant. Neutron measures 42.8 meters (140.4 ft) tall and up to seven meters (23 ft) wide. Its stout, ballistically-optimized design means that it’s simultaneously 40% shorter and up to 190% wider than SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket.
Design differences aside, Neutron is the first rocket that has been obviously designed as an answer to Falcon 9, which has become one of the most prolific, cost-effective, and routinely reusable rockets in the world over the last five or so years. Depending on how much Rocket Lab can sell Neutron for while still breaking even, Neutron has the potential to give Falcon 9 a serious run for its money – or at least force SpaceX to lower its prices. Like Falcon 9, Neutron will have a reusable booster, a reusable payload fairing, and an expendable upper stage. Its booster will also have nine (Archimedes) engines and the upper stage will be powered by one engine. At liftoff, Neutron will produce up to 674 tons (1.49M lbf) of thrust to Falcon 9’s 770 tons (1.7M lbf).
Unlike Falcon 9, Neutron’s similarly-sized reusable fairing is integral, meaning that it will stay permanently attached to the booster. But despite the added mass of the integral fairing and the rocket’s significantly shorter layout, Rocket Lab says that Neutron will be able to launch up to 13 tons (~28,700 lb) to LEO if the booster lands on a barge downrange. Using the same approach with a deployable fairing, Falcon 9 has launched up to 16.7 tons (~36,800 lb) to LEO. That 23% performance gap may seem significant, but the reality is that only SpaceX’s own Starlink and Dragon missions have ever needed Falcon 9 to launch more than 13 tons to orbit.
If Neutron can consistently launch ~25% less payload than Falcon 9 to all Earth and near-Earth orbits, virtually every commercial launch contract that’s currently a SpaceX shoo-in could be within reach of Rocket Lab within several years. The challenge, of course, is building Neutron and making sure the ambitious rocket and its clean-sheet Archimedes engine work as expected and can be reused as easily as Falcon 9.
The company is attempting to get there with its far smaller Electron vehicle, but Rocket Lab has never reused a rocket. And five and a half years after Electron’s debut, the company has never launched more than nine times in one year. SpaceX is about to reuse a Falcon booster for the 140th time and launched 61 times in 2022 – a lead that may prove almost impossible to close. There’s also the fact that the size gap between Rocket Lab’s rockets is so extreme that Neutron could likely launch a fully-fueled Electron into orbit.
But again, SpaceX serves as a demonstration that what Rocket Lab hopes to achieve is not impossible. SpaceX went directly from Falcon 1 (about twice as large as Electron) to Falcon 9 V1.0 (about 30% smaller than Neutron) after just two successful launches of the smaller rocket. Electron has successfully launched 29 times since May 2017 and Rocket Lab is already learning about reusability through the smaller rocket. The challenges facing Rocket Lab are huge, but Neutron still remains the most promising SpaceX competitor currently in development. Kicking off full-scale Neutron tank testing just 2-3 years after the rocket was revealed would only reiterate its strengths. Stay tuned to see how much Neutron progress Rocket Lab can make in 2023.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
News
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China held steady in November with around 73,000 units delivered, but a closer look at the Model Y L’s numbers hints at an emerging shift towards pricier variants that could very well be boosting average selling prices and margins.
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla China’s November domestic numbers
Data from the a Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicated that Tesla China saw domestic deliveries of about 73,000 vehicles in November 2025. This number included 34,000 standard Model Y units, 26,000 Model 3 units, and 13,000 Model Y L units, as per industry watchers.
This means that the Model Y L accounted for roughly 27% of Tesla China’s total Model Y sales, despite the variant carrying a ~28% premium over the base RWD Model Y that is estimated to have dominated last year’s mix.
As per industry watcher @TSLAFanMtl, this suggests that Tesla China’s sales have moved towards more premium variants this year. Thus, direct year-over-year sales comparisons might miss the bigger picture. This is true even for the regular Model Y, as another premium trim, the Long Range RWD variant, was also added to the lineup this 2025.
November 2025 momentum
While Tesla China’s overall sales this year have seen challenges, the Model Y and Model 3 have remained strong sellers in the country. This is especially impressive as the Model Y and Model 3 are premium-priced vehicles, and they compete in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. Tesla China is also yet to roll out the latest capabilities of FSD in China, which means that its vehicles in the country could not tap into their latest capabilities yet.
Aggregated results from November suggest that the Tesla Model Y took the crown as China’s #1 best-selling SUV during the month, with roughly 34,000 deliveries. With the Model Y L, this number is even higher. The Tesla Model 3 also had a stellar month, seeing 25,700 deliveries during November 2025.
Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck earns IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award
To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
The Tesla Cybertruck has achieved the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s (IIHS) highest honor, earning a Top Safety Pick+ rating for 2025 models built after April 2025.
The full-size electric pickup truck’s safety rating is partly due to the vehicle’s strong performance in updated crash tests, superior front crash prevention, and effective headlights, among other factors. To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
Cybertruck’s IIHS rating
As per the IIHS, beginning with 2025 Cybertruck models built after April 2025, changes were made to the front underbody structure and footwell to improve occupant safety in driver-side and passenger-side small overlap front crashes. The moderate overlap front test earned a good rating, and the updated side impact test also received stellar marks.
The Cybertruck’s front crash prevention earned a good rating in pedestrian scenarios, with the standard Collision Avoidance Assist avoiding collisions in day and night tests across child, adult crossing, and parallel paths. Headlights with high-beam assist compensated for limitations, contributing to the top award.
Safest and most autonomous pickup
The Cybertruck is one of only two full-size pickups to receive the IIHS’ Top Safety Pick + rating. It is also the only one equipped with advanced self-driving features via Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system. Thanks to FSD, the Cybertruck can navigate inner city streets and highways on its own with minimal supervision, adding a layer of safety beyond passive crash protection.
Community reactions poured in, with users praising the vehicle’s safety rating amidst skepticism from critics. Tesla itself highlighted this by starting its X post with a short clip of a Cybertruck critic who predicted that the vehicle will likely not pass safety tests. The only question now is, of course, if the vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating from the IIHS will help the Cybertruck improve its sales.
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
