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Rocket Lab to resume launches following in-flight anomaly investigation
Less than a month after the complete loss of customer payload due to an in-flight anomaly, Rocket Lab has announced that it is ready to return its small-class Electron rocket to flight. Company CEO, Peter Beck, during a media briefing Friday (July 31) said that the Electron second-stage “re-entered the atmosphere and burned up” resulting in a failed July 4 launch of the Electron and complete loss the customer payload of seven small satellites. Beck went on to state that through a collaborative investigation with the Federal Aviation Administration Rocket Lab was “able to quickly reconstruct what happened and the AIB board (Accident Investigation Board) was able to confidently narrow down the issue to a single electrical connection.”
The thirteenth flight of the Electron carried seven small satellites, all Earth-imaging inspiring the “Pics Or It Didn’t Happen” mission name. The rocket initially experienced a flawless launch from the company’s Launch Complex-1A on New Zealand’s Mahia Penninsula and everything seemed like it was going to plan until the video feed cut out unexpectedly shortly after the nominal ignition of the second-stage which was intended to carry the payloads to orbit.
The launch was completely event free during the first-stage ascent, stage separation, second stage ignition, and payload fairing jettison, then trouble occurred. Beck stated that the electrical connection that went bad during the second-stage of the flight was “incredibly unusual because it was able to evade all of the pre-flight acceptance testing.” Beck went on to explain that “while all of the testing showed no issues, after a period of time one of the joints had high resistance and that high resistance led to heating. That heating then led to thermal expansion of one of the components. That thermal expansion and heating enabled some of the potting components – that are around that joint to keep it secure from vibration – to flow.”
Once the potting compound used to secure electrical connections was able to heat up and essentially melt – or began to flow – the electrical connection become unsecured and led to the interruption in electrical current throughout the second-stage. Beck stated that “when the video stops (in the webcast) is exactly the point (of failure).” Although the video cut out, Rocket Lab ground stations continued to receive telemetry data of the flight’s progress due to the amount of redundancy with the systems aboard Electron “telemetry is the only way you can reconstruct this stuff so we have a very high priority of those (data) channels” Beck said.
With the immense amount of data that was received during the flight and throughout the second-stage shutdown Rocket Lab was able to quickly determine the cause of the error and perform tests to determine exactly what occurred during the failed flight. “The vehicle as it flies every flight has just a huge amount of instrumentation. That coupled with a graceful shutdown coupled with full telemetry stream throughout the whole anomaly, we were really able to quickly reconstruct what happened” Beck said.
The vast amount of data and the ability to sufficiently replicate the incident now means that Rocket Lab has a plan of action in place to mitigate any failures – of this nature – on future missions. “We can actually mitigate (the anomaly) very easily through a slight change in production processes, but more importantly we can screen for it in our current vehicles and stock through more in-depth testing procedures.”
To that end, the Rocket Lab Electron is set to return to flight in August, an impeccable turn around time following an anomaly investigation.”I’m very proud of the way the team has been able to identify this issue and rectify it so quickly” Beck said. He gave high praise to the entire Rocket Lab team for relentlessly working toward determining, not only the cause of the anomaly but working toward a solution for a quick return to flight. “Literally ten minutes after we saw some anomalous behavior during the flight, the team already started to work it and they haven’t stopped. They’ve been relentless” Beck said.
The customer payload that will fly aboard the return to flight and fourteenth mission of Electron launch is expected to be announced very soon. Rocket Lab did state that following a successful launch from the LC-1A complex in New Zealand, the following mission would be the first to take place from the brand new Launch Complex 2 located at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport at NASA Wallops in Virginia. Although an American private company, Rocket Lab predominately launches from New Zealand. The upcoming mission will be the first Electron flight to occur from American soil.
Beck closed the media briefing by stating that Rocket Lab looks forward to returning to operational status and launching Electrons every month, if not bi-weekly. He expressed that Rocket Lab is looking to the future and hopes to achieve a full recovery effort of the first stage booster via a helicopter and a specially designed grappling hook with the seventeenth flight of Electron. He also hinted that “there’ll be a couple of other little surprises as well, as we execute some other programs that have been cooking up in the background.”
In early 2026, Tesla made a bold strategic pivot: it largely eliminated the option to purchase Full Self-Driving (FSD) software outright and shifted to a subscription-only model. The change, effective around mid-February, ended the one-time fee that had previously ranged as high as $15,000 and later dropped to $8,000. Instead, customers would access FSD (Supervised) for $99 per month in the U.S.
At the time, skeptics questioned whether locking customers into recurring payments would hurt adoption or alienate buyers who preferred ownership of the feature. Tesla bet that a lower barrier to entry, seamless integration at purchase, and the ability to cancel at any time would drive higher uptake.
The results from Q2 2026 speak for themselves: the decision has been a resounding success, delivering the largest quarterly growth in FSD subscriptions in the company’s history.
Tesla FSD subscriptions went up 56% in Q2 2026 to 1.48 million, an increase of 200,000 from Q1 2026.
Tesla added more FSD subscribers in Q2 than in any quarter in its history. pic.twitter.com/jTciTD2JqW
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) July 22, 2026
According to Tesla’s Q2 shareholder update, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million globally by the end of June 2026. That represents a 56 percent increase year-over-year and a 15.6 percent jump from the prior quarter. Tesla added roughly 200,000 new subscriptions in the period alone—the biggest single-quarter gain on record.
North America led the charge, with more than 55 percent of new vehicle deliveries including an FSD subscription at the time of purchase, a record attach rate for the region.
Tesla explicitly noted that “more customers [are] opting for subscription at the time of vehicle purchase,” crediting the model shift and prominent placement of the option in the ordering process. Subscriptions now contribute meaningfully to ancillary revenue, helping offset pressure elsewhere in the business.
The financial upside is substantial: At $99 per month, 1.48 million active subscriptions generate approximately $146.5 million in monthly recurring revenue. Over a full year, that equates to roughly $1.76 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) from FSD subscriptions alone, assuming steady retention and no major pricing changes.
These figures represent pure, high-margin software revenue. Unlike vehicle sales, which carry production costs, warranty obligations, and supply-chain risks, FSD subscriptions flow largely to the bottom line once the software is developed and deployed over-the-air.
Tesla does not break out exact FSD subscription revenue in its filings (it sits within “Services and Other”), but the category grew 50 percent year-over-year in Q2, with executives highlighting subscriptions as a key driver.
The subscription model offers several structural advantages. It lowers the upfront cost of a new Tesla, potentially broadening the buyer pool and supporting vehicle demand, especially important amid fluctuating EV market conditions. It creates a predictable revenue stream that compounds as the fleet grows and more owners try (and stick with) the software.
Legacy one-time purchasers still exist, but new growth is overwhelmingly subscription-based following the February cutoff.
Early data also suggests improving retention and satisfaction, as well. Tesla has rolled out iterative FSD updates, including v14 features, and expanded availability to additional markets. Recent regulatory approvals in parts of Europe have further boosted interest, with owners in newly enabled countries eager to activate the software they had been waiting for.
FSD is still supervised; regulatory hurdles for true unsupervised autonomy persist in many regions, including the United States, and competition in advanced driver-assistance systems is intensifying. Yet the Q2 numbers validate Tesla’s bet: by removing the large upfront commitment and making FSD accessible via subscription, the company has accelerated adoption faster than many anticipated.
What began as a controversial switch-up has become a clear win. With nearly 1.5 million subscribers, record attach rates, and nearly $1.8 billion in potential annual recurring revenue already in view, Tesla’s FSD business is transitioning from a promised future to a tangible, fast-growing profit engine.
If the momentum continues, and especially if unsupervised capabilities unlock robotaxi opportunities, the subscription flywheel could become one of the most valuable assets in Tesla’s portfolio.
Tesla Robotaxi is among its biggest projects currently, but many have been quick to point out the fact that the company has definitely been slow to expand its fleet.
However, there is definitely a method to that madness. CEO Elon Musk answered several concerns during last night’s quarterly earnings call that some might have about that slow rollout of the Robotaxi suite, maintaining the company’s narrative on prioritizing safety and wanting to avoid injuries to anyone, including animals.
Musk said:
“With Robotaxi, our goals are very ambitious for Robotaxi, but we do need to be cautious about causing any accidents or causing any harm to anyone. Although there are, I think, 30,000 to 40,000 automotive deaths per year in the U.S. alone, most of those do not generate any press or maybe, you never really read about almost any of those. If we injure even one person, it’ll be worldwide headline news, and regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities.
We don’t want to injure anyone. We’re going as fast as humanly possible in scaling Robotaxi, but while trying to ensure that we do not harm anyone at all, and ideally do not even run over a pet. That’s really the constraint is we want to grow as fast as possible with Robotaxi without harm to anyone.”
Tesla has maintained an exemplary safety record with its Robotaxi suite, according to internal data. VP of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said that the Robotaxi suite has driven more than 380,000 miles unsupervised without any incidents.
0 notable incidents across over 380,000 miles traveled by Robotaxi
— Tesla (@Tesla) July 22, 2026
Analyst Colin Langan of Bank of America also pushed Tesla executives for answers regarding the company’s decision to add cities across several states with dozens of vehicles “as opposed to hundreds.”
Elluswamy said there’s a bigger advantage to do it the way Tesla has been because it ensures that its software stack “is a very general one:”
“The reason we have been expanding across different cities instead of just doubling down on a single city, is that we want to make sure that our stack is a very general one. It is a general one. We just want to both prove to ourselves and to other folks that it is working across a lot of different cities without too much effort per city. That’s what we see internally.”
In the past, we have written about Tesla’s decision to be incredibly conservative with its Robotaxi rollout, especially with the incredibly small fleet size compared to competitors. However, there really is not a price anyone can put on safety for those utilizing the platform or pedestrians, so what Tesla is doing is justified.
A year into the Robotaxi program being active, Tesla has made major strides, but many investors and fans would like to see the fleet expand as quickly as the program has to other cities and states.
Elon Musk
Tesla Semi finally has an FSD timeline and it’s waiting on the Cybercab
Elon Musk told investors Semi self-driving should start working by early 2027, per today’s earnings.
During Wednesday’s’ Tesla Q2 earnings call, an analyst asked Elon Musk when Tesla would look at autonomy for the Semi. His answer set a real timeline for the first time, noting that self-driving on the Tesla Semi is expected to start working “around the end of this year or early next year”.
Musk framed the delay as a matter of priority, not capability. Tesla’s self-driving team is currently focused on Model 3, Model Y, and Cybercab, the vehicles that make up the overwhelming majority of Tesla’s fleet. Since Semi trucks on the road remain a small fraction of that total even after the recent Nevada factory ramp, Musk said it made more sense to keep the software team’s attention on what he called “the march of nines of safety” for the higher volume vehicles first. Autonomous Semi development is “taking a bit of a backseat for the next six months or so,” he said, before adding that it “will definitely be working next year and in time for the scale-up to high production of the Tesla Semi.”
Tesla Semi’s official battery capacity leaked by California regulators
The timeline lines up with what’s already been showing up on public roads. In June, a Tesla Semi was spotted in Sunnyvale wearing a full validation rig, the same rooftop sensor array Tesla mounts on vehicles ahead of an FSD milestone.
A second unit was seen near Fremont days later with a matching camera suite and lens washers. Separately, Tesla analyst Nic Cruz Patane posted video this month of the production Semi’s exterior camera array, ten AI4 based units built directly into the truck rather than added later.
Tesla Semi AI4 cameras. The production version has 10 cameras on its exterior.
These trucks are designed to be autonomous. pic.twitter.com/GH3BamxIBQ
— Nic Cruz Patane (@niccruzpatane) April 14, 2026
Musk also gave the reason autonomy on the Semi matters in the first place, a persistent shortage of qualified truck drivers. “There is a really serious shortage of truckers,” he said on the call, framing a self-driving Semi as important both for addressing that shortage and for improving safety and comfort for the drivers running the truck today.
The timing also tracks with the Semi’s production reality. Tesla’s Q2 shareholder letter, dropped language promising the Semi would reach volume production this year. Musk pointed to 4680 battery cell output as the near-term constraint on Semi and Cybercab production. A software timeline landing in early 2027 gives Tesla’s autonomy team room to work while the hardware ramp catches up behind it.
It’s worth nothing that this isn’t necessarily a promise the Semi ships driverless next year. Musk’s own language, self-driving “working” by early 2027, describes internal validation catching up to hardware already riding on every production truck, not a public unsupervised rollout.
Tesla’s switch-up on selling Full Self-Driving has paid off big time
Tesla Robotaxi’s slow rollout gets explanation from Elon Musk
