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SpaceX to launch quartet of mini geostationary satellites in 2023
Startup Astranis has purchased a dedicated Falcon 9 launch from SpaceX for four miniature geostationary communications satellites.
Known as MicroGEO, the comparatively tiny satellites Astranis is building aim to offer prospective customers an alternative to the immense, expensive satellites that dominate modern geostationary (GEO) communications. Where those flagship satellites tend to weigh anywhere from three to seven metric tons (~6,500-15,500 lb) at liftoff, MicroGEO satellites will weigh around 400 kilograms (~900 lb) – at least a magnitude lighter. Astranis also believes it will be able to eke out about 10 gigabits per second (Gbps) of bandwidth from each tiny satellite, giving them a level of performance that could actually be proportionally comparable to or greater than much larger satellites.
While it’s not clear that Astranis is actually selling its MicroGEOs for “1/20th the cost of traditional GEO communications satellites,” as they claim, the startup has found plenty of customers.
As of March 2022, Astranis has secured contracts to build 11 MicroGEO satellites for a range of customers: one for Alaska’s Pacific Dataport, eight for in-flight and at-sea connectivity provider Anuvu, and one or two for Peru’s Grupo Andesat. Astranis says its deal to launch one satellite for Andesat – with an option for a second – is worth more than $90 million. At that price tag, MicroGEO might cost about half as much as a more traditional entry-level GEO satellite but will only offer 10 Gbps for the money. For twice the price, a prospective customer could easily buy a satellite with at least five to ten times the throughput.
In that sense, MicroGEOs are actually more expensive relative to the performance they offer. Their main benefits appear to be a lower cost of entry, significantly lower launch costs, and the ability to dedicate a whole satellite to a relatively small region or niche service. In that sense, MicroGEO’s draw might be comparable to the reason some launch customers prefer a more expensive dedicated launch on a small rocket over a much cheaper launch as one of many rideshare payloads on a large rocket. For that premium, dedicated launch customers don’t have to worry about the logistics of juggling dozens of other satellites, the risk of related launch delays, or the general need to compromise with other passengers.
While MicroGEO satellite might be significantly less cost-efficient than larger alternatives, smaller customers may find paying a premium preferable to having to find or compromise with other customers to avoid wasting any leftover bandwidth. Additionally, in some unique situations, dedicated MicroGEO satellites may actually be several times cheaper for customers. CEO John Gedmark says that for Peru’s Andesat, MicroGEO offers a “factor of three or a factor of four cost decrease…compared to what they’re paying today [to lease less capacity on existing satellites].”
It’s clear that Astranis’ customers see significant value in MicroGEO. On top of Astranis’ current backlog, Gedmark recently revealed that the company is working on deals for “dozens” of additional satellites and believes that “there will be more than 100 Astranis satellites in active service” by 2030. That means that Astranis’ unique Falcon 9 contract is likely to be the first of many. For perhaps as little as $50 million, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch four MicroGEO satellites at once. The relatively tiny payload – likely less than two tons (~4400 lb) – will allow Falcon 9 to launch into a more energetic geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), significantly reducing the amount of time the MicroGEOs will need to reach operational orbits.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
