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SpaceX Starlink launch to smash California pad turnaround record

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Update: SpaceX’s Thursday Starlink 3-2 launch was automatically aborted less than a minute before liftoff by Falcon 9’s onboard computers. The company will try again tomorrow, Friday, July 22nd, at 10:39 pm PDT (17:39 UTC).

SpaceX says it’s on track to launch another batch of polar Starlink satellites from the West Coast as early as 10:39 am PDT (17:39 UTC), Thursday, July 21st.

On top of featuring one of the fastest Falcon 9 booster turnarounds ever, SpaceX’s Starlink 3-2 launch will more than halve the fastest turnaround of its Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) SLC-4E pad, potentially rendering it capable of launching dozens of times per year.

Barring delays, Starlink 3-2 is scheduled to launch from SLC-4E just 10 days and 14 hours after the same pad supported Starlink 3-1. The current record – 22 days and 11 hours – was set between the launches of Germany’s SARah-1 radar satellite and Starlink 3-1, meaning that SLC-4E is on track to break its turnaround record twice in a row.

For most of the time since SpaceX began using SLC-4E for Falcon 9 launches in 2013, the pad has rarely supported more than one launch every few months. Between 2013 and 2020, the pad supported a total of 16 successful Falcon 9 launches. 15 occurred between January 2016 and November 2020, averaging one launch every four months and never flying twice in less than 36 days. Between January 2019 and September 2021, the pad only supported three launches and even went 17 months without a single use.

When they aren’t shrouded in fog, VSFB’s launch pads are some of the most scenic in the world. (SpaceX)

In late 2021, something changed. On top of the introduction of dedicated West Coast Starlink launches, apparent upgrades to the pad’s turnaround capabilities have allowed it to support more launches than usual. In the ten months since SLC-4E exited its hibernation period, it’s supported nine Falcon 9 launches – five for Starlink and four for customers. Prior to 2021, SLC-4E never supported more than six launches in a ten-month period, meaning that the pad is already operating at a 50% higher capacity.

SpaceX, however, apparently wasn’t satisfied and is on track to substantially expand SLC-4’s operational constraints yet again, more than halving its minimum demonstrated turnaround time. By definition, that also doubles the pad’s operational ceiling, meaning that it could theoretically support about 34 launches per year with no downtime. SpaceX appears to have achieved that expansion by applying the same upgrades it already made to its two East Coast launch pads, LC-39A and LC-40, which both set respective turnaround records of approximately nine days and eight days earlier this year. SLC-4E will comfortably bookend the two with its imminent 10.7-day turnaround.

Of course, no launch pad routinely operates at its demonstrated minimum, but a leap forward like SLC-4E’s (22.5 to 10.7 days) all but guarantees that the pad will be able to launch far more frequently as long as rockets and payloads are available. Over the last seven months, LC-39A has averaged one launch every 19 days – more than twice its 9.1-day turnaround record. LC-40, which generally deals with simpler missions and only one of three Falcon rocket variants, has managed one launch every 13 days over the same period – closer to its 8.2-day record but still a ways off.

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Starlink 3-2 will be Falcon 9 booster B1071’s second launch in 33 days, one of the fastest booster reuses yet. (SpaceX)

Even if SLC-4E’s average cadence settles somewhere between SpaceX’s other two pads going forward, it will still likely double its contribution the company’s annual launch cadence and help expedite the deployment of its Starlink internet constellation. If all three pads manage an average of about one launch every two weeks, a target that’s well within reach, SpaceX will have the capacity to launch 72 Falcon rockets per year – more than any other family of rockets in history.

Pad aside, Starlink 3-2 will be Falcon 9 booster B1071’s fourth launch overall and second launch in 33 days – SoaceX’s fifth fastest Falcon booster reuse since the practice began in March 2017. Tune in below around 10:30 am PDT (17:30 UTC) to watch Falcon 9’s 32nd launch of 2022.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.

SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.

The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.

Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean

Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.

This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.

Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims

Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.

A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.

It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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