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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon parachutes are almost ready for NASA astronauts
SpaceX says Crew Dragon’s upgraded “Mk3” parachutes are almost ready to safely return astronauts to Earth and need to pass just a few more consecutive tests before NASA will have the data it needs to qualify them.
Although SpaceX originally hoped to pursue a program of propulsive landing for Crew Dragon and Cargo Dragon space capsules, that effort was canceled to avoid the major cost increases and delays NASA’s qualification certification requirements would have triggered. Already designed with parachutes as a backup, SpaceX quickly pivoted and redesigned those parachutes as the primary (if not sole) method of gently landing astronauts back on Earth.
That decision was likely made in late 2016 or early 2017 and CEO Elon Musk announced the program’s cancellation – as well as plans for “Red Dragon” Mars landings – in July 2017. For the next 18 months, SpaceX worked with suppliers and NASA to design and test a parachute system up to the space agency’s extremely rigid standards. Coincidentally, Cargo Dragon suffered a significant (but survivable) parachute failure the same year when one of its three main chutes failed to deploy before splashdown. Additionally, Crew Dragon’s first “Mk1” parachutes suffered their own failures during testing.
A Mk2 variant was designed and built to account for Mk1’s issues, but it too suffered failures during field tests, particularly struggling to make it through tests simulating the failure of one Dragon’s main parachutes. As a result, NASA further required SpaceX to add a fourth parachute, requiring a whole new round of tests and experimentation due to the significantly different dynamics it introduced. Mk2 testing continued into 2019 but SpaceX quickly switched gears and worked with its supplier to design an even more upgraded “Mk3” parachute, building off of a cutting-edge program to model parachute deployment more accurately than ever before.
Over the course of 2019, SpaceX began to extensively test Mk3 parachutes with a variety of drop tests. Unfortunately, even Mk3 suffered a failure or two at first, leading SpaceX and its supplier to refine the design even further.
“[In October and November,] SpaceX says it successfully completed thirteen consecutive tests of Crew Dragon’s new Mk3 parachutes in less than two weeks. That essentially blew [NASA administrator Jim] Bridenstine’s expectations out of the water, as SpaceX surpassed his predicted 10 tests and did so barely three weeks into the tentative 12-week window he set. SpaceX now has plenty of time to either continue testing Crew Dragon’s parachutes or refocus its efforts on other equally important qualification challenges.
Prior to those thirteen consecutive successes, SpaceX suffered two failures during single-parachute Mk3 testing. The first two development tests of the Mk 3 design used loads much higher than the parachutes would ever see in operation in an effort to better understand overall design margins and system performance. After a period of rapid iteration with parachute provider Airborne Systems, the faults responsible for those two stress-test failures were resolved and subsequent drop tests confirmed that Mk3’s suspension lines – the numerous lines connecting the parachute to Crew Dragon – are far stronger than those on Mk2.”
Teslarati — November 3rd, 2019
In the latest chapter of the Crew Dragon parachute saga, on December 4th, SpaceX tweeted that the spacecraft’s upgraded Mk3 chutes recently completed their seventh successful “system test”. On November 3rd, CEO Elon Musk tweeted that one such multi-chute test had already been completed but said SpaceX wanted to successfully complete ten such consecutive tests before it would feel fully confident in the upgraded parachutes.
If the seven tests SpaceX is now describing are part of the same planned series that kicked off in early November, then those seven were likely consecutive successes and leave just three more tests (give or take) to go. Additional testing may well be required by SpaceX, NASA, or both parties, but if Mk3 continues to perform as well as it has over the last two months, Crew Dragon’s recovery systems ought to be well on their way to NASA certification. Once NASA gives the go-ahead on Crew Dragon’s parachutes (and every other facet of the spacecraft), SpaceX can proceed with its Demo-2 mission, set to be SpaceX’s inaugural astronaut launch and likely to mark the first time the US has launched its own astronauts in nearly nine years.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
