SpaceX’s newest drone ship is on its way out into the Atlantic Ocean for a Starlink mission that will break the company’s record for annual launch cadence.
Somewhat confusing known as Starlink Shell 4 Launch 3 or Starlink 4-3, the batch of 53 laser-linked V1.5 satellites is scheduled to fly before Starlink 4-2 for unknown reasons and at the same time as Starlink 2-3 is scheduled to fly before Starlink 2-2 on the West Coast. Regardless of the seemingly unstable launch order, perhaps related to the recent introduction of Starlink’s new V1.5 satellite design, drone ship A Shortfall of Gravitas’ (ASOG) November 27th Port Canaveral confirms that SpaceX is more or less on track to launch Starlink 4-3 no earlier than (NET) 6:20 pm EST (23:20 UTC) on Wednesday, December 1st.
In a bit of a return to stride after launching 20 times in the first six months but only three times in the entire third quarter of 2021, Starlink 4-3 is currently the first of four or even five SpaceX launches scheduled in the last month of the year. Nevertheless, if Starlink 4-3 is successful, it will also set SpaceX up to cross a milestone unprecedented in the history of satellite launches.
Specifically, Starlink 4-3 is SpaceX’s 16th dedicated Starlink launch of 2021 and will mark 951 Starlink satellites safely delivered to orbit since January 20th. If, as CEO Elon Musk has telegraphed is the plan, SpaceX intends to complete one more dedicated Starlink launch in December (either Starlink 2-2 or 2-3), the company could round out 2021 having launched more than a thousand satellites in a single year.
Thanks to Starlink, 2020 was the first year in history in which more than a thousand satellites (technically 1283) were launched into orbit. Now, in 2021, there’s a good chance that SpaceX Starlink launches alone will account for more than a thousand satellites launched in one year. Altogether, SpaceX will likely end the year having singlehandedly launched a total of more than 1240 satellites in 2021 – and despite only completing 3-4 Starlink launches in the last seven months of the year compared to 13 in the first five months.
For SpaceX and Starlink, that’s great news. In March and November 2018, the FCC approved two SpaceX applications to launch and operate constellations of ~4400 and ~7500 Starlink satellites – a total of around 11,900 satellites. To avoid having its licenses revoked, SpaceX – like all other FCC constellation applicants – is required to launch half of its licensed constellation within six years of its license receipts and full constellation within nine years. For SpaceX, that means it has to launch at least ~2200 satellites operating around 550 km (340 mi) and ~3750 satellites operating around 350 km (~220 mi) by March and November 2024, respectively.
With a bit less than 1700 Starlink satellites currently functioning in orbit, even if SpaceX merely repeats its 2021 cadence, it will be on track to outright finish Starlink’s first 4400-satellite phase by mid-2024 and should easily cross the halfway mark by mid-2022 – years ahead of schedule for both. However, simultaneously hitting Starlink’s very low Earth orbit (VLEO) deployment milestones will still be a massive challenge. Given that SpaceX has yet to launch a single VLEO Starlink spacecraft three years after license approval, it now has less than three years to launch ~3750 VLEO satellites on top of at least 500 more LEO satellites.
If SpaceX can replicate its H1 2021 Starlink launch cadence throughout 2022, completing at least 26 launches in 52 weeks, it may actually have a shot at pulling off a cadence close to what is needed to meet its FCC deployment requirements (an average of 1400 satellites per year for the next three years). If SpaceX simply aims for the average annual numbers needed to complete the full ~11,900-satellite Starlink constellation by November 2027, it will need to launch around 1800-2000 satellites per year – equivalent to 35-40 Falcon 9 rockets.
Investor's Corner
Tesla investor Calpers opposes Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award
Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas.
One of the United States’ largest pension funds, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), has stated that it will be voting against Elon Musk’s 2025 Tesla CEO performance award.
Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas. Company executives have stated that the upcoming vote will decide Tesla’s fate in the years to come.
Why Calpers opposes Musk’s 2025 performance award
In a statement shared with Bloomberg News, a Calpers spokesperson criticized the scale of Musk’s proposed deal. Calpers currently holds about 5 million Tesla shares, giving its stance meaningful influence among institutional investors.
“The CEO pay package proposed by Tesla is larger than pay packages for CEOs in comparable companies by many orders of magnitude. It would also further concentrate power in a single shareholder,” the spokesperson stated.
This is not the first time Calpers has opposed a major Musk pay deal. The fund previously voted against a $56 billion package proposed for Musk and criticized the CEO’s 2018 performance-based plan, which was perceived as unrealistic due to its ambitious nature at the time. Musk’s 2018 pay plan was later struck down by a Delaware court, though Tesla is currently appealing the decision.
Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award
While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award will result in him becoming a trillionaire, he would not be able to receive any compensation from Tesla unless aggressive operational and financial targets are met. For Musk to receive his full compensation, for example, he would have to grow Tesla’s market cap from today’s $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion, effectively making it the world’s most valuable company by a mile.
Musk has also maintained that his 2025 performance award is not about compensation. It’s about his controlling stake at Tesla. “If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
News
Tesla Cybercab is heading to China’s import expo
The event will take place from November 5–10 at Shanghai’s National Exhibition and Convention Center.
Tesla will make its return to the China International Import Expo (CIIE) this November, marking its first appearance at the event since 2022. The U.S. electric vehicle maker confirmed it will showcase its highly anticipated Cybercab, which will make its Asia-Pacific debut during the event.
The expo will take place from November 5–10 at Shanghai’s National Exhibition and Convention Center.
Tesla Cybercab in China
Tesla announced its participation in the event on its official Weibo account. As per the electric vehicle maker, it would be occupying Booth A3-03 in Hall 2.1 at the National Exhibition and Convention Center. As noted in a CNEV Post report, the Cybercab, the company’s dedicated autonomous two-seater Robotaxi, will be making its Asia-Pacific debut at the CIIE as well.
The company shared a graphic on Chinese social media which showed an image featuring several Tesla products, such as the Cybercab, Optimus, and Megapack batteries. The graphic also featured a building that read “Master Plan Part IV.”


Tesla’s momentum in China
Tesla’s return comes after skipping the event last year. Interestingly enough, Tesla attended the event from 2018 all the way to 2023. Tesla’s return to the CIIE then aligns with the company’s efforts to attract consumer interest in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market.
The Cybercab’s presence in the event could suggest that Tesla might be interested in bringing its Robotaxi to the country. This is quite interesting as China is already home to several autonomous ride-hailing services, though Tesla’s pure vision approach, which focuses on artificial intelligence and cameras, is quite unique. So far, Tesla has only rolled out its autonomous ride-hailing services in Austin, Texas, and the Bay Area, California.
News
Tesla Semi factory looks nearly complete
Based on recent images taken of the facility, it appears that the Semi’s initial production might be right on schedule.
The Tesla Semi factory looks like it is nearing completion. Based on recent images taken of the facility, it appears that the Semi’s initial production might be right on schedule.
This was, at least, as per recent observations from a veteran Tesla watcher who has long been chronicling the progress of the facility.
Tesla Semi factory today
As per longtime Tesla Semi advocate @HinrichsZane, the Class 8 all-electric truck’s factory in Nevada looks almost completed. The facility’s exterior looks finished, which suggests that much of the work being done today is likely focused on the factory’s interior and equipment.
This was highlighted in recent photos taken by the drone operator, which show that the facility’s parking lots are now filled with vehicles. A photo taken before dawn also highlighted just how refined the factory has become over the past months. Needless to say, it appears that the factory is all but ready to start the initial production of the Tesla Semi.
Deliveries and targets
Tesla has stated that the Semi factory will start producing the Class 8 all-electric truck by 2026. This was stressed by Elon Musk in a previous comment on X, when he stated that “Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year.” Once ramped, the facility will be capable of producing about 50,000 Tesla Semi units annually. This should help the Semi disrupt and potentially saturate the United States’ transport sector.
Progress in the Tesla Semi factory has been notable in the past months. Just a few months ago, drone footage of the site revealed that Tesla was shipping extremely large production equipment into the facility. These included what appeared to be a gigantic stamping machine that was so large and heavy that it was shipped to the Semi factory using two diesel trucks and a triple trailer.
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