SpaceX’s newest drone ship is on its way out into the Atlantic Ocean for a Starlink mission that will break the company’s record for annual launch cadence.
Somewhat confusing known as Starlink Shell 4 Launch 3 or Starlink 4-3, the batch of 53 laser-linked V1.5 satellites is scheduled to fly before Starlink 4-2 for unknown reasons and at the same time as Starlink 2-3 is scheduled to fly before Starlink 2-2 on the West Coast. Regardless of the seemingly unstable launch order, perhaps related to the recent introduction of Starlink’s new V1.5 satellite design, drone ship A Shortfall of Gravitas’ (ASOG) November 27th Port Canaveral confirms that SpaceX is more or less on track to launch Starlink 4-3 no earlier than (NET) 6:20 pm EST (23:20 UTC) on Wednesday, December 1st.
In a bit of a return to stride after launching 20 times in the first six months but only three times in the entire third quarter of 2021, Starlink 4-3 is currently the first of four or even five SpaceX launches scheduled in the last month of the year. Nevertheless, if Starlink 4-3 is successful, it will also set SpaceX up to cross a milestone unprecedented in the history of satellite launches.
Specifically, Starlink 4-3 is SpaceX’s 16th dedicated Starlink launch of 2021 and will mark 951 Starlink satellites safely delivered to orbit since January 20th. If, as CEO Elon Musk has telegraphed is the plan, SpaceX intends to complete one more dedicated Starlink launch in December (either Starlink 2-2 or 2-3), the company could round out 2021 having launched more than a thousand satellites in a single year.
Thanks to Starlink, 2020 was the first year in history in which more than a thousand satellites (technically 1283) were launched into orbit. Now, in 2021, there’s a good chance that SpaceX Starlink launches alone will account for more than a thousand satellites launched in one year. Altogether, SpaceX will likely end the year having singlehandedly launched a total of more than 1240 satellites in 2021 – and despite only completing 3-4 Starlink launches in the last seven months of the year compared to 13 in the first five months.
-->For SpaceX and Starlink, that’s great news. In March and November 2018, the FCC approved two SpaceX applications to launch and operate constellations of ~4400 and ~7500 Starlink satellites – a total of around 11,900 satellites. To avoid having its licenses revoked, SpaceX – like all other FCC constellation applicants – is required to launch half of its licensed constellation within six years of its license receipts and full constellation within nine years. For SpaceX, that means it has to launch at least ~2200 satellites operating around 550 km (340 mi) and ~3750 satellites operating around 350 km (~220 mi) by March and November 2024, respectively.
With a bit less than 1700 Starlink satellites currently functioning in orbit, even if SpaceX merely repeats its 2021 cadence, it will be on track to outright finish Starlink’s first 4400-satellite phase by mid-2024 and should easily cross the halfway mark by mid-2022 – years ahead of schedule for both. However, simultaneously hitting Starlink’s very low Earth orbit (VLEO) deployment milestones will still be a massive challenge. Given that SpaceX has yet to launch a single VLEO Starlink spacecraft three years after license approval, it now has less than three years to launch ~3750 VLEO satellites on top of at least 500 more LEO satellites.
If SpaceX can replicate its H1 2021 Starlink launch cadence throughout 2022, completing at least 26 launches in 52 weeks, it may actually have a shot at pulling off a cadence close to what is needed to meet its FCC deployment requirements (an average of 1400 satellites per year for the next three years). If SpaceX simply aims for the average annual numbers needed to complete the full ~11,900-satellite Starlink constellation by November 2027, it will need to launch around 1800-2000 satellites per year – equivalent to 35-40 Falcon 9 rockets.
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Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Tesla AI4 owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season.
Tesla quietly rolled out a free Full Self-Driving (Supervised) trial for roughly 1.5 million HW4 owners in North America who never bought the package, and the timing could very well be genius.
As it turns out, the trial doesn’t end after 30 days. Instead, it expires January 8, 2026, meaning owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season. This extended window positions the feature for maximum word-of-mouth exposure.
A clever holiday gift
Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt first spotted the detail after multiple owners shared screenshots showing the trial expiring on January 8. He confirmed with affected users that none had active FSD subscriptions before the rollout. He also observed that Tesla never called the promotion a “30-day trial,” as the in-car message simply reads “You’re Getting FSD (Supervised) For the Holidays,” which technically runs until after the new year.
The roughly 40-day period covers peak family travel and gatherings, giving owners ample opportunity to showcase the latest FSD V14’s capabilities on highway trips, crowded parking lots and neighborhood drives. With relatives riding along, hands-off highway driving and automatic lane changes could become instant conversation starters.
Rave reviews for FSD V14 highlight demo potential
FSD has been receiving positive reviews from users as of late. Following the release of FSD v14.2.1, numerous owners praised the update for its smoothness and reliability. Tesla owner @LactoseLunatic called it a “huge leap forward from version 14.1.4,” praising extreme smoothness, snappy lane changes and assertive yet safe behavior that allows relaxed monitoring.
-->Another Tesla owner, @DevinOlsenn, drove 600 km without disengagements, noting his wife now defaults to FSD for daily use due to its refined feel. Sawyer Merritt also tested FSD V14.2.1 in snow on unplowed New Hampshire roads, and the system stayed extra cautious without hesitation. Longtime FSD tester Chuck Cook highlighted improved sign recognition in school zones, showing better dynamic awareness. These reports of fewer interventions and a more “sentient” drive could turn family passengers into advocates, fueling subscriptions come January.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Elon Musk stated that rapid advances in artificial intelligence and robotics could make traditional work unnecessary within two decades.
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Work as a “hobby”
During the discussion, Musk said the accelerating capability of AI systems and general-purpose robots will eventually cover all essential tasks, making human labor a choice rather than an economic requirement. “In less than 20 years, working will be optional. Working at all will be optional. Like a hobby,” Musk said.
When Kamath asked whether this future is driven by massive productivity growth, Musk agreed, noting that people will still be free to work if they enjoy the routine or the challenge. He compared future employment to home gardening, as it is something people can still do for personal satisfaction even if buying food from a store is far easier.
“Optional” work in the future
Elon Musk acknowledged the boldness of his claim and joked that people might look back in 20 years and say he was wrong. That being said, the CEO noted that such a scenario could even happen sooner than his prediction, at least if one were to consider the pace of the advancements in AI and robotics.
-->“Obviously people can play this back in 20 years and say, ‘Look, Elon made this ridiculous prediction and it’s not true,’ but I think it will turn out to be true, that in less than 20 years, maybe even as little as ten or 15 years, the advancements in AI and robotics will bring us to the point where working is optional,” Musk said.
Elon Musk’s comments echo his previous sentiments at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, where he noted that Optimus could ultimately eliminate poverty. He also noted that robots like Optimus could eventually provide people worldwide with the best medical care.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates why Tesla will never make an electric motorcycle
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more, highlighting that the electric vehicle maker has no plans to enter the electric motorcycle market.
Musk posted his clarification in a post on X.
Musk’s reply to a fun AI video
X user @Moandbhr posted an AI video featuring the Tesla CEO on the social media platform, captioning it with “Mr. Elon Musk Just Revealed the Game-Changing Tesla Motorcycle.” The short clip depicted Musk approaching a sleek, single-wheeled vehicle, stepping onto it, and gliding off into the distance amid cheers. The fun video received a lot of traction on X, gaining 3.1 million views as of writing.
Musk replied to the post, stating that a Tesla motorcycle is not going to happen. “Never happening, as we can’t make motorcycles safe. For Community Notes, my near death experience was on a road bike. Dirt bikes are safe if you ride carefully, as you can’t be smashed by a truck,” Musk wrote in his reply.
Musk’s Past Comments on Two-Wheelers
Musk also detailed his reservations about motorcycles in a December 2019 X post while responding to questions about Tesla’s potential ATV. At the time, he responded positively to an electric ATV, though he also opposed the idea of a Tesla road-going motorcycle. Musk did state that electric dirt bikes might be cool, since they do not operate in areas where large vehicles like Class 8 trucks are present.
-->“Electric dirt bikes would be cool too. We won’t do road bikes, as too dangerous. I was hit by a truck & almost died on one when I was 17,” Musk wrote in his post.
Considering Musk’s comments about dirt bikes, however, perhaps Tesla would eventually offer a road bike as a recreational vehicle. Such a two-wheeler would be a good fit for the Cybertruck, as well as future products like the Robovan, which could be converted into an RV.
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
