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SpaceX’s drone ship fleet spied prepping for future rocket recoveries
Just shy of three weeks since SpaceX’s last launch and the better part of half a year since the last successful ocean recovery, both of the company’s drone ships have been spotted in recent weeks being refurbished, refitted, and prepared for a return to the ocean.
The unusual drought of drone ship landings was nearly brought to an end in early March, but that recovery attempt – following the successful launch of Hispasat 30W-6 – was precluded by extreme weather in the landing zone, forcing booster 1044 to soft-land in the Atlantic with a swan call of landing legs and titanium grid fins. Several weeks before 1044’s demise, the inaugural launch of Falcon Heavy also saw the first failed booster recovery attempt since June 2016, ending a successful streak of 17 flawless Falcon 9 recoveries – though both side boosters did manage a spectacular, synchronized landing at LZs 1 and 2.
Before the Falcon Heavy attempt, East coast drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) successfully recovered a Falcon 9 booster for the last time in late October 2017, a handful of weeks after the successful recovery of SES-11 – the source of a small fire that famously destroyed SpaceX’s robotic stage securer, nicknamed Roomba or Octagrabber. Over the several months, since it was damaged, Octagrabber has gradually undergone refurbishment at SpaceX’s Port Canaveral berth, most recently appearing back on OCISLY for post-refurb testing.
With the introduction of Falcon 9 Block 5 presumably a month or less away, the days of expending once flight-proven boosters will almost certainly be over, aside from missions that truly require the booster’s full performance. As discussed yesterday, regardless of whether Block 5 is truly ready for the limelight, SpaceX is no more than two months away from effectively running out of all older boosters: the once-flown B1045 (TESS) will likely be the only flight-worthy heritage booster remaining by early May. In other words, every single SpaceX launch in the second half of 2018 is all but guaranteed to attempt recovery, either by land or sea.
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- OCISLY as seen by Tom Cross on March 5, readying for a busy future of rocket recoveries. (Tom Cross)
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- Roomba was spied aboard OCISLY for the first time in months earlier this month. (Instagram /u/grimlok77)
OCISLY is effectively prepared to support these upcoming recovery attempts, and its Octagrabber may be as well. However, OCISLY was reportedly damaged by Falcon Heavy’s center core, despite the fact that it quite visibly missed the drone ship. Presumably, the forlorn booster acted as a sort of depth charge, thus damaging beyond repair the drone ship’s sensitive maneuvering and station-keeping thrusters. Before Falcon Heavy, it’s likely that the same fire that burned Octagrabber also damaged the hydraulic systems of one or several of OCISLY’s thrusters. These conclusions are supported by the fact that SpaceX’s West coast drone ship, Just Read The Instructions (JRTI), has visibly been stripped of its functional thrusters, presumably used to keep OCISLY operational in anticipation of Falcon Heavy and later Hispasat 30W-6.
Mr Steven, SpaceX’s only current fairing recovery vessel, has also been spotted conducting some sort of sea trials just off the shore of Port of San Pedro and LA, presumably honing recovery operations and giving its pilots time to practice catching fairings. Following the launch of PAZ and SpaceX’s own prototype Starlink satellites, the company managed its first-ever intact fairing recovery, although it missed Mr Steven’s net by a few hundred feet. As stated by Musk, it should be relatively easy to go from missing by a few hundred feet to successfully catching the fairing, and it’s likely that the imminent launch of Iridium-5 (7:19 am PDT, March 29) will attempt to close that gap and actually catch a fairing halve. On the other hand, the booster – flight-proven during the October 2017 launch of Iridium-3 – will likely soft-land in the Pacific Ocean because JRTI is currently unable to support ocean recoveries, lacking two of its four thrusters.
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- Teslarati photographer Pauline Acalin took a trip down to Port of San Pedro to check up on JRTI, March 25. (Pauline Acalin)
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- Note one of JRTI’s thrusters here, quite clearly not installed. A second one sits just out of sight on the right. (Pauline Acalin)
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- SpaceX’s West coast drone ship Just Read The Instructions getting some much needed fresh paint. (Instagram, anonymous)
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
