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SpaceX's Elon Musk reveals next Starship's Raptor engines, explains latest failure

On April 5th, Musk posted the first photos of three flight-ready Raptors, staged in Boca Chica and awaiting the first Starship that passes its acceptance tests. Work on the next vehicle is well underway. (Elon Musk)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter to better explain what happened when the latest full-scale Starship prototype failed during one of its first tests, while later revealing the rocket engines set to power a future prototype’s first flight.

On April 3rd, SpaceX initiated the third full-scale Starship prototype’s first cryogenic (ultra-cold) pressure test by loading the ~30m (100 ft) tall rocket’s upper propellant tank with what was likely 400+ metric tons (~900,000 lb) of liquid nitrogen. For several hours, liquid nitrogen – a chemically-neutral propellant simulant – was loaded and offloaded several times. Finally, around 2:07 am local (07:07 UTC), the liquid oxygen tank below the methane tank abruptly crumpled, reminiscent of a plastic bottle with the air partially sucked out of it. After several long seconds of gradual crumpling, gravity did what gravity does and pulled the heavy upper tank to the ground, shredding the rest of the rocket’s thin steel skin.

Both unfortunate and a positive development, Musk has recently confirmed Teslarati’s earlier speculation that based on videos of the anomaly, a bad test design and operator error(s) – rather than a technical fault of the rocket itself – could have been the cause of Starship SN3’s failure. In other words, barring future operator error-related failures, Starship SN3’s second cryogenic test went quite well and should mean no delays to Starship SN4’s ongoing assembly.

Particularly in light of Elon Musk’s statement that operator error and a bad test design caused Starship SN3’s failure, the ship’s April 3rd performance was quite impressive. That SN3 remained vertical for several seconds after its aft tank crumpled and likely lost pressure – despite carrying a load equivalent to a fully-loaded Boeing 747 passenger jet – suggests that the vehicle’s structure is extremely robust.

In his explanation, Musk revealed that the rocket failed because the lower (liquid oxygen) tank had not been pressurized enough to withstand the stress of a methane tank fully loaded with liquid nitrogen. Musk’s description almost makes it sound like one or several people failed to account for the fact that liquid nitrogen is nearly 25% heavier than the cryogenic methane it was simulating.

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Thankfully, while a prototype likely worth several million dollars and at least a month of work was lost, that means that SpaceX should be able to move on to SN4 with confidence – at least as long as it can rectify whatever allowed those operator mistakes to occur.

In the same Twitter session, Musk – presumably burning the late-night oil at SpaceX’s Boca Chica, Texas Starship factory – also posted a photo showing three operational Raptors in the same frame, a definite first for the cutting-edge rocket engine. Had Starship SN3 survived its cryogenic proof tests last week, SpaceX’s plan was to install and static fire either one or three Raptor engines. A successful static fire campaign would have then been followed soon after by a full-scale Starship’s inaugural flight test, potentially seeing the ship fly as high as Starhopper’s final August 2019 hop.

Now, while Musk says SpaceX may still “reuse much of [SN3’s] thrust section,” the company’s Starship test plan will now rely on SN4 – the next full-scale prototype. It’s far more likely that SN4 will reuse almost no structural aspects of SN3, but even that might cause just a few weeks of delays. Based on a particular assembly step completed on April 4th, Starship SN4 is only four weeks away from the launch pad under the assumption of zero improvements to the speed of production, assembly, and outfitting. Knowing SpaceX, SN4 could be fully stacked and outfitted even sooner.

For now, it looks like we’ll thus have to wait at least a few more weeks to see Starship attempt another cryogenic proof test and – potentially – breathe its first fire with one or several Raptor engines.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.” 

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative

Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.

Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.

Still cautious on TSLA

Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.

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Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.

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Investor's Corner

BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating

The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels. 

The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.

Tesla’s valuation

In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.

The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla and its peers

BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.

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The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.

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Tesla FSD’s new Mad Max mode is getting rave reviews from users

It does appear that Mad Max mode is destined to be one of the system’s biggest steps forward to date.

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Credit: Whole Mars Catalog/X

Tesla’s release notes for the newly released Mad Max mode for FSD (Supervised) V14.1.2 simply stated that the feature “comes with higher speeds and more frequent lane changes than Hurry.” But as per videos that have been posted online by FSD users who have tested the system, it does appear that Mad Max mode is destined to be one of the system’s biggest steps forward to date. 

It is then no surprise that the new capability is getting rave reviews from Tesla owners. 

Impressive tests

A look at posts on social media platform X would show that, similar to past FSD releases, numerous Tesla content creators immediately tested Mad Max mode on real-world streets after it was downloaded onto their vehicle. Considering that the update was released rather late, the first tests of Mad Max mode were done at night. Despite this, it was evident that Tesla worked very hard to make Mad Max mode into something that is very useful in real-world scenarios.

This could be seen in videos from longtime Tesla owner @BLKMDL3, who observed that Max Max mode was “amazing” and like “perfect for LA traffic” due to its cautious but assertive nature. Later on, the Tesla owner noted that after eight drives, it was evident that FSD (Supervised) V14.1.2 was impressive. 

Assertive but safe

Other testers such as Model Y owner Sawyer Merritt noted that Mad Max mode drives very quickly and confidently, with smoother acceleration that is still very safe. These were echoed by another longtime FSD tester, Dirty Tesla, who noted that Mad Max mode seems to be designed for heavy, aggressive traffic so users could fit in better. The FSD user did, however, observe that Mad Max mode does speed up a lot on open roads. 

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Recent comments from Tesla AI Head Ashok Elluswamy have indicated that Mad Max mode was created to be a solution for daytime congested traffic, which is arguably one of the most soul-crushing experiences that drivers deal with on a daily basis. With this in mind, it does appear that FSD (Supervised) V14.1.2 could prove to be a notable step forward in Tesla’s push towards true autonomous driving.

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