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SpaceX recovery ships head to sea for first 'whole-fairing' catch attempt
After a brisk day-long cruise into the Atlantic Ocean, SpaceX’s twin Falcon fairing recovery ships have reached the general landing area to prepare for their first true ‘whole-fairing’ catch attempt.
Formerly known as Mr. Steven, GO Ms. Tree and new sister ship GO Ms. Chief departed Port Canaveral on December 14th and arrived at their designated recovery roughly 36 hours later. Now stationed just shy of 800 km (500 mi) downrange of SpaceX’s LC-40 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) launch site, the ships are in position and can begin to prepare for Falcon 9’s Kacific-1/JCSAT-18 launch.
Scheduled to lift off no earlier than (NET) 7:10 pm ET, December 16th (00:10 UTC, Dec 17), Falcon 9 will place the ~6800 kg (15,000 lb) Kacific-1/JCSAT-18 communications satellite in a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). Falcon 9 booster B1056 will attempt its third landing around nine minutes after launch, to be followed 25 minutes later by satellite deployment from the rocket’s upper stage. deploying the satellite around thirty minutes after launch.
If all goes according to plan, another 12-15 minutes after Falcon 9’s second stage (S2) deploys the Kacific-1/JCSAT-18 satellite, the rocket’s payload fairing halves will begin their final approach towards recovery ships Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief. Just shy of identical twins, the two ships have been outfitted with custom arms, boom supports, and nets with the intention of quite literally catching payload fairing halves out of the air after orbital Falcon 9 (and Heavy) launches.
SpaceX’s fairing recovery development program has had a long and arduous journey from Mr. Steven’s (now Ms. Tree’s) arrival at the company’s Port of Los Angeles dock space (late-2017) to the ship’s first attempted fairing catch (February 2018) and first successful catch (June 2019). In the 20+ months SpaceX has been attempting fairing recoveries, at least a dozen intentional soft ocean landings and seven net catches have been attempted, with numerous successful splashdowns and recoveries ultimately followed by two consecutive catches in June and August 2019.
The fact that SpaceX consecutively caught two fairing halves a little over two months apart after five failed catch attempts suggests that the company has effectively solved the majority of the fairing recovery challenge, becoming the first company (or space agency) in the world to do so. Unfortunately, a three-month launch lull after the second successful catch precluded any rapid-fire follow-up attempts and when that lull came to an end on November 11th, Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief were both ready but were forced to abort the attempt by rough seas.
Both ships actually spent several weeks docked (or stranded) in a North Carolina port after that aborted mission, potentially indicating that SpaceX had to fly a team north to inspect both ships’ arms and ensure that they could make the journey back to Port Canaveral. They were ultimately cleared and returned to their home port around ten days later, where their arms and booms were immediately removed. It’s unclear why that removal occurred but SpaceX’s recovery team rapidly reinstalled their arms in just a few days, followed by their nets soon after.
Given that their first simultaneous (i.e. ‘whole-fairing’) catch attempt was aborted before it could start, it’s safe to say that December 16th’s hopeful attempt will be Ms. Tree’s and Ms. Chief’s first side-by-side recovery mission. Both ships have successfully reached the recovery zone, a step further than they managed to get on their November attempt. Coincidentally, that November launch happened to mark both SpaceX’s and the world’s first launch of a flight-proven payload fairing, both halves of which were recovered from the ocean and represented a more or less worst-case scenario for reuse.
And nevertheless, that reuse was a flawless success, marred only by the fact that Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief were unable to attempt to recover the world’s first twice-flown payload fairing. In short, all the conditions are right for what could be the world’s first successful recovery of both halves of an orbital-class payload fairing. If successful, SpaceX will have effectively closed the book on Falcon 9 and Heavy reusability development, having proven that both boosters and fairings can be reliably and routinely recovered and reused.
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Tesla released what analysts believe the company will report in terms of deliveries and energy deployments for Q2, but the figures seem to confirm a long-standing theory on the company’s vehicle division.
For years, Tesla was just looked at as a car company. Now that it has established itself as a powerhouse in energy, AI, and tech as a whole, the company is now less hellbent on achieving quarterly growth, on a sequential basis, at least from a major standpoint.
Tesla topped out its annual deliveries in 2023 at 1.81 million, and in the two years since, the company has reported a decrease in deliveries for the entire 12-month term both times.
With Tesla delivering 358,023 cars in Q1, a 6.3 percent increase over Q1 2025, but falling short of Wall Street expectations at 365,000-370,000 units, the narrative around vehicle deliveries and their importance continued to change earlier this year. Some might say it is convenient, but others might say it is the typical evolution of a company that continues to change over time.
For Q2, Tesla’s delivery consensus estimates sit at 406,024 units, analysts believe. They were surveyed from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, BMP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co., HSBC, and William Blair.
Credit: Tesla
Tesla is also expected to report deployments of 13.8 GWh this quarter.
The change to Tesla’s overall narrative now leans less on vehicle deliveries and more on its other projects. Most notably, Tesla’s Robotaxi project has taken the priority over most of its other business ventures, and investors and the public are more concerned about the deployment of vehicles into the fleet, the operation of a driverless ride-hailing service, Cybercab production and operation, and expansion into new cities.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
This big narrative switch happened when Tesla indicated it was looking at making transportation a service by launching a ride-hailing service that will operate using Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite. Once unsupervised operation begins, Robotaxi could be a new way for people to get around, all without a driver in their car.
Instead, they will rely on the billions of miles Tesla has accumulated from its real-world fleet.
It is important to note that Tesla remains significant in the automotive sector, and deliveries must continue as they have for years. Tesla still has a strong automotive business and needs to execute further on all facets to keep its investors happy.
Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.
Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.
Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.
Fiorani said:
“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”
Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.
Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:
Looks like another Tesla Model Y L was spotted in the U.S.! pic.twitter.com/jhsdkcN5Go
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.
The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.
Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.
The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.
In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.
This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.
In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.
🚨 A Tesla competitor goes down
Polestar will no longer sell new vehicles in the United States starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied the brand authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which restricts the sale of cars with software and… pic.twitter.com/TrwnQeoiES
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 25, 2026
Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.
Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.
The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.
While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.
Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.
Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:
Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns
The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.
By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.
For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.
Tesla Q2 delivery consensus confirms this long-standing theory
Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.
