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SpaceX Falcon 9 booster spotted in Southern California on journey to Florida
On August 20th, a member of a local California Facebook group happened to spot a SpaceX Falcon 9 booster in transit, an exceedingly rare sight as of late. Moving east, the booster is almost certainly heading to Florida to support a major cluster of 6-8 launches in Q4 2019.
This marks the first time in nearly four months that a flight-proven Falcon 9 booster has been spotted in transit, excluding a lone (unflown) booster captured on its way to McGregor, Texas last month. This also serves as an opportunity to reexamine the status of SpaceX’s expansive fleet of reusable Falcon 9 Block 5 rockets as the company prepares for a busy end of 2019 in the midst of a rare multi-month lull in launch activities.
Based on the timing, its location (Southern California), and the direction it was headed (Eastbound), the rocket spotted on August 20th is almost certainly twice-flown Falcon 9 booster B1051. The booster was likely departing SpaceX’s Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) launch facilities after some two months post-launch inspections and refurbishment, having completed its second launch and landing on June 12th, 2019 in support of the Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM).
Prior to its successful launch of RCM, B1051 had the historic privilege of supporting the inaugural orbital launch of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft, putting the next-gen crew capsule through its paces before a crewed launch debut expected to occur absolutely no earlier than (NET) December 2019. Known as DM-1 (Demo-1), B1051 was subjected to an exceptionally strenuous suite of inspections, analysis, and testing for the mission – from the very first welding sparks to the booster’s McGregor, TX and Florida static fires and launch debut.
Said debut occurred on March 2nd, 2019, after which B1051 landed at sea aboard drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY).
SpaceX production experienced an exceptionally frenetic period from early-2018 to mid-2019, in which the company averaged the completion of almost an entire Falcon 9 or Heavy rocket every 1-2 months, building, delivering, launching, and relaunching Falcon boosters B1046 through B1057 from ~January 2018 to April 2019. In the last 3-4 months, the (publicly visible) rate of rocket production has dramatically slowed, presumably an intentional slow-down triggered by SpaceX’s rapidly growing fleet of flight-proven boosters.
In the last four or so months, unaffiliated observers have spotted a grand total of one new Falcon 9 booster on its way from SpaceX’s Hawthorne, CA factory to its McGregor, TX testing facilities. That booster – likely either B1058 for Crew Dragon’s crewed launch debut (Demo-2) or B1059 for SpaceX’s next USAF GPS III launch – was spotted twice headed east in Arizona on July 29th. Prior to that, the next most recent ‘core spottings’ occurred in mid-to-late April, while the most recent since July 29th’s instance is B1051.2’s August 20th appearance. In short, things are unusually quiet on the SpaceX booster transport front.
Rocket fleet logistics
This apparent slowdown in production can be relatively easily explained by the nature of SpaceX’s fleet of boosters, as well as the company’s growing confidence in the extreme reusability nominally permitted by Falcon 9’s Block 5 upgrade. Just a few days ago, SpaceX Vice President of Build and Flight Reliability Hans Koenigsmann reiterated the belief that Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters will be more than capable of safely performing 10 or more launches apiece.
At the moment, SpaceX’s fleet of flightworthy Block 5 boosters is seven strong, composed of B1046.3, B1048.3, B1049.3, B1051.2, B1052.2, B1053.2, B1056.2. Altogether, they have supported a full 17 launches in 15 months, averaging 2.4 launches apiece with a maximum of three launches achieved by three separate boosters. Under the extremely conservative assumption that 60-90 days are needed for post-flight inspections and refurbishment, anywhere from 2-6 of those boosters are already ready for their next launches.
In simple terms, it appears that even a fleet as small as seven Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters may be capable of supporting a vast majority of SpaceX’s commercial launch contracts, while even NASA has come to support launching uncrewed Cargo Dragon missions on flight-proven boosters. In fact, Koenigsmann revealed that a number of customers had nearly come a full 180 degrees in the less than three years that SpaceX has been reflying boosters. Many now actively prefer a flight-proven booster and have come to view them as a more known quantity relative to unproven (i.e. new) hardware.
Aside from a handful of customers – primarily the US military – that explicitly demand new hardware, the rare need for entirely expendable Falcon 9 launches, and the equally rare loss of boosters during unsuccessful landings, SpaceX just doesn’t need nearly as high of a Falcon 9 or Heavy booster production rate to support the same (or even greater) launch cadences.
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Tesla ramps production of its ‘new’ models at Giga Texas
The vehicles are being built at Tesla Gigafactory Texas in Austin, and there are plenty of units being built at the factory, based on a recent flyover by drone operator and plant observer Joe Tegtmeyer.
Tesla is ramping up production of its ‘new’ Model Y Standard at Gigafactory Texas just over a week after it first announced the vehicle on October 7.
Earlier this month, Tesla launched the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” their release of what it calls its affordable models. They are priced under $40,000, and although there was some noise surrounding the skepticism that they’re actually “affordable,” it appears things have been moving in the right direction.
The vehicles are being built at Tesla Gigafactory Texas in Austin, and there are plenty of units being built at the factory, based on a recent flyover by drone operator and plant observer Joe Tegtmeyer:
News: the @Tesla Model Y Standard production is well underway at Giga Texas today!
This consistent with what I was told to expect during the unveiling day last week!
The outbound lot had many Premium Model Y’s and @cybertruck too!
More coming soon! pic.twitter.com/WU489QKPLB
— Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) October 16, 2025
The new Standard Tesla models are technically the company’s response to losing the $7,500 EV tax credit, which significantly impacts any company manufacturing electric vehicles.
However, it seems the loss of the credit is impacting others much more than it is Tesla.
As General Motors and Ford are scaling back their EV efforts because it is beginning to hurt their checkbooks, Tesla is moving forward with its roadmap to catalyze annual growth from a delivery perspective. While GM, Ford, and Stellantis are all known for their vehicles, Tesla is known for its prowess as a car company, an AI company, and a Robotics entity.
Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies
Tesla should have other vehicles coming in the next few years, especially as the Cybercab is evidently moving along with its preliminary processes, like crash testing and overall operational assessment.
It has been spotted at the Fremont Factory several times over the past couple of weeks, hinting that the vehicle could begin production sometime next year.
Tesla could be greatly impacted in one of its strongest markets as the government is ready to eliminate a main subsidy for electric vehicles over the next two years.
In Norway, EV concentrations are among the strongest in the world, with over 98 percent of all new cars sold in September being electric powertrains. This has been a long-standing trend in the Nordic region, as countries like Iceland and Sweden are also highly inclined to buy EVs.
However, the Norwegian government is ready to abandon a subsidy program it has in place, as it has effectively achieved what it set out to do: turn consumers to sustainability.
This week, Norway’s Finance Minister, Jens Stoltenberg, said it is time to consider phasing out the benefits that are given to those consumers who choose to buy an EV.
Stoltenberg said this week (via Reuters):
“We have had a goal that all new passenger cars should be electric by 2025, and … we can say that the goal has been achieved. Therefore, the time is ripe to phase out the benefits.”
EV subsidies in Norway include reduced value-added tax (VAT) on cheaper models, lower road and toll fees, and even free parking in some areas.
The government also launched programs that would reduce taxes for companies and fleets. Individuals are also exempt from the annual circulation tax and fuel-related taxes.
In 2026, changes will already be made. Norway will lower its EV tax exemption to any vehicle priced at over 300,000 crowns ($29,789.40), down from the current 500,000, which equates to about $49,500.
This would eliminate each of the Tesla Model Y’s trim levels from tax exemption status. In 2027, the VAT exemptions will be completely removed. Not a single EV on the market will be able to help owners escape from tax-exempt status.
There is some pushback on the potential loss of subsidies and benefits, and some groups believe that the loss of the programs will regress the progress EVs have made.
Christina Bu, head of the Norwegian EV Association, said:
“I worry that sudden and major changes will make more people choose fossil-fuel cars again, and I think everyone agrees that we don’t want to go back there.”
With the loss of the $7,500 Electric Vehicle Tax Credit, it looks as if Tesla CEO Elon Musk was right all along.
As the tax credit’s loss starts to take effect, car companies that have long relied on the $7,500 credit to create sales for themselves are starting to adjust their strategies for sales and their overall transition to electrification.
On Tuesday, General Motors announced it would include a $1.6 billion charge in its upcoming quarterly earnings results from its EV investments.
Ford said in late September that it expects demand for its EVs to be cut in half. Stellantis is abandoning its plan to have only EVs being produced in Europe by 2030, and Chrysler, a brand under the Stellantis umbrella, is bailing on lofty EV sales targets here in the U.S.
How Tesla could benefit from the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ that axes EV subsidies
The tax credit and EV subsidies have achieved what many of us believed they were doing: masking car companies from the truth about their EV demand. Simply put, their products are not priced attractively enough for what they offer, and there is no true advantage to buying EVs developed by legacy companies.
These tax credits have helped companies simply compete with Tesla, nothing more and nothing less. Without them, their products likely would not have done as well as they have. That’s why these companies are now suddenly backtracking.
It’s something Elon Musk has said all along.
Back in January, during the Q4 and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call, Musk said:
“I think it would be devastating for our competitors and for Tesla slightly. But, long term, it probably actually helps Tesla, that would be my guess.”
In July of last year, Musk said on X:
“Take away all the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.”
Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.
Also, remove subsidies from all industries!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 16, 2024
Over the past few years, Tesla has started to lose its market share in the U.S., mostly because more companies have entered the EV manufacturing market and more models are being offered.
Nobody has been able to make a sizeable dent in what Tesla has done, and although its market share has gotten smaller, it still holds nearly half of all EV sales in the U.S.
Tesla’s EV Market Share in the U.S. By Year
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- 2020 – 79%
- 2021 – 72%
- 2022 – 62%
- 2023 – 55%
- 2024 – 49%
As others are adjusting to what they believe will be tempered demand for their EVs, Tesla has just reported its strongest quarter in company history, with just shy of half a million deliveries.
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Although Tesla benefited from the EV tax credit, particularly last quarter, some believe it will have a small impact since it has been lost. The company has many other focuses, with its main priority appearing to be autonomy and AI.
One thing is for sure: Musk was right.
Tesla ramps production of its ‘new’ models at Giga Texas
Tesla set to be impacted greatly in one of its strongest markets
Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies
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