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SpaceX's workhorse rocket is almost halfway to reaching ambitious reusability goals
Thanks to a recent cluster of major milestones, SpaceX’s family of Falcon 9 and Heavy rockets are rapidly nearing the halfway point along the path to several ambitious goals for booster and fairing reusability.
Back in the early 2010s, SpaceX’s CEO Elon Musk’s original dream was to make Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy 100% reusable, meaning that the company would need to find ways to reliably recover boosters (first stages), payload fairings (or Dragon spacecraft), and the rocket’s upper (second) stages. The concept of Falcon 9 second stage reuse actually survived all the way into 2018 before Musk ultimately conceded defeat, accepting that Falcon 9 and Heavy simply didn’t offer the performance necessary to make full reusability a worthwhile investment. The concept, however, still lives on in SpaceX’s next-generation Starship launch vehicle.
This does mean Falcon rockets will never be fully reusable, but it’s still up to SpaceX to decide how far they’ll push the envelope with the rockets’ existing reusable hardware. At the moment, it appears that a vast majority of Falcon rockets will be able to be routinely recovered and reused, capitalizing on the fact that Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters already represent some 50-75% of the cost of building each two-stage rocket. While Falcon upper stages and Dragon trunks will never be reused, both booster and payload fairing reuse are rapidly approaching their own unique halfway points on the path to ambitious reusability targets.
Shortly after SpaceX’s January 29th Starlink V1 L3 launch, carrying the third batch of 60 upgraded v1.0 satellites to orbit, twin fairing recovery ships GO Ms. Tree (formerly Mr. Steven) and Ms. Chief teamed up for their second-ever simultaneous fairing catch attempt. Ms. Chief – only active since November 2019 – reportedly just barely missed her first successful catch, while Ms. Tree managed to snag one of the Falcon 9 fairing halves in her massive net – the ship’s third successful catch.
Worth an estimated $3M per half according to CEO Elon Musk, Falcon 9’s payload fairing represents approximately 10% of the rocket’s total manufacturing cost. Made out of a carbon fiber and aluminum honeycomb composite material, fairings also also takes a disproportionate amount of time and space to produce – primarily due to their large size (a school bus could comfortably fit inside a fairing) and the need for commensurately large curing ovens. That composite honeycomb structure also makes it relatively easy for Falcon payload fairings to suffer from corrosion when dunked in seawater, leading SpaceX to the seemingly bizarre solution of installing giant arms and nets on ships.
Catching fairings has proven to be incredibly unforgiving, however, and SpaceX has simultaneously worked to make its Falcon fairings much more waterproof (and thus resistant to corrosion) while keeping them as light as possible. In fact, SpaceX’s first fairing reuse occurred less than three months ago and used two halves that previously landed in the Atlantic Ocean, demonstrating that difficulties reliably catching fairings will not stand in the way of reuse.
Ms. Chief missed her January 29th catch attempt, she still managed to fish her fairing half out of the ocean, while Ms. Tree’s successfully-caught half means that SpaceX ultimately recovered the full Starlink V1 L3 fairing. With a little luck, that recovered fairing will launch again in the near future.
Five for 5
Simultaneously, SpaceX is making excellent progress along the path to airliner-like rocket reusability. In November 2019, on the same Starlink mission that debuted flight-proven fairings, Falcon 9 booster B1048 became the first SpaceX rocket to launch (and land) four times. Less than two months later, Falcon 9 B1049 doubled down on that reusability milestone, becoming the second booster to launch and land four times, followed by Falcon 9 B1046 just 12 days later. Falcon 9 B1046 was (intentionally) destroyed after its fourth launch, precluding a fourth landing attempt, but it emphasizes just how confident SpaceX is in Falcon 9’s Block 5 upgrade.
Designed to allow each Falcon 9 and Heavy booster to perform a minimum of 10 launches and landings, the Block 5 upgrade is potentially just a few weeks away from reaching the halfway point along the path to that ambitious reusability design goal. Speaking at the NASA Kennedy Space Center earlier this month, a SpaceX engineer recently revealed that a Falcon 9 booster would conduct its fifth launch in support of a Starlink mission (either Starlink V1 L4 or L5) scheduled no earlier than (NET) mid-to-late February.
Pictured above, Falcon 9 booster B1048 – the first to launch four times – is the likeliest candidate for the first fifth flight of a SpaceX rocket. If the booster’s reuse goes as planned, it’s safe to say that Falcon 9 B1049.4 will follow closely on the heels of its predecessor with its own fifth-flight milestone. All things considered, SpaceX’s workhorse rocket is rapidly approaching the zenith of its theoretically-achievable reusability.
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
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Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
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Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
