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SpaceX set for third Starlink launch in a row [webcast]

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Update: SpaceX says that a Falcon 9 rocket is on track Starlink 4-11 from California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) no earlier than (NET) 9:12 am PST (17:12 UTC) on Friday, February 25th. The mission will be the third of five back-to-back Starlink launches planned in February and March 2022.

In lieu of commercial missions that are ready to fly, SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are currently scheduled to launch at least five batches of Starlink satellites in a row.

The streak won’t break the company’s record of seven back-to-back Starlink launches but it does highlight one beneficial side-effect of SpaceX’s relentless pursuit of vertical integration – the ability to create its own launch demand. Just shy of two full months into 2022, SpaceX has launched seven times – three for paying customers and four for Starlink. Before February is over, the company is scheduled to launch at least one more batch of Starlink satellites for a total of eight launches in the first two months of the year.

Up next, SpaceX is scheduled to launch Starlink 4-11 out of its California-based Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) SLC-4E facilities no earlier than (NET) 9:08 am PST (17:08 UTC), Friday, February 25th. Drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) departed the Port of Long Beach for the mission on February 22nd and is headed around 640 kilometers (~400 mi) southeast to a booster landing area just off the coast of Baja California. Falcon 9 booster B1063 is scheduled to support the mission – its fourth launch overall and first since it helped launch NASA’s DART asteroid redirection spacecraft into interplanetary space in November 2021.

Up next, another Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch Starlink 4-9 as early as “mid-morning” EST on Thursday, March 3rd from its Kennedy Space Center LC-39A pad. Booster B1060 is reportedly scheduled to support the mission and will become the third SpaceX first stage to singlehandedly support eleven orbital-class launches if it does. Starlink 4-9 could be the pad’s last mission for a few weeks to give SpaceX enough time to convert its rocket transporter/erector for the March 30th launch of Axiom-1, which will send four private astronauts to the International Space Station.

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Finally, SpaceX plans to launch Starlink 4-10 NET Tuesday, March 8th from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) Launch Complex 40 (LC-40). It’s likely that SpaceX will launch at least one more Starlink mission next month but a firm date has yet to be settled on. All told, including Starlink 4-7 (February 3rd) and Starlink 4-8 (February 21st), SpaceX is on track to launch at least five Starlink missions in a row, hopefully placing around 240 satellites (~200 after losing most of Starlink 4-7 to a “geomagnetic storm”) in orbit in less than five weeks.

Falcon 9 B1063 is about a day away from its fourth launch. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)
Falcon 9 B1060 could launch for the eleventh time less than a week later. (SpaceX)

More a sign of a lack of commercial missions ready for flight than anything else, SpaceX’s record for uninterrupted Starlink missions – set from February to April 2021 – is seven launches. Technically, SpaceX actually managed 12 Starlink launches between February and March, with just one commercial mission – Crew-2 – separating the lot. Barring surprises, SpaceX is thankfully unlikely to be hit by a similar streak in 2022.

There’s a chance that SpaceX will launch a batch of three O3B mPower satellites for SES next month. At a minimum, SpaceX is scheduled to launch a trio of Dragon missions over the next two or so months, beginning with Ax-1 NET March 30th. Another Crew Dragon is scheduled to launch Crew-4 for NASA on April 15th, followed by Cargo Dragon 2’s CRS-25 space station resupply mission as early as May 1st. Excluding Starlink missions and on top of the three commercial launches SpaceX has already completed this year, there are as many as 38 more commercial Falcon launches tentatively scheduled before the end of 2022.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk’s Neuralink posts massive update with new milestone

This is the first time Neuralink has successfully implanted two patients in a single day.

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neuralink link device with white background
(Credit: Neuralink)

Elon Musk’s Neuralink has posted a massive update with a new milestone that puts the company’s progress into perspective. Over the past few years, we have seen tremendous strides in Neuralink’s capabilities.

Now, the company has completed a new first, bringing more hope to the future of this revolutionary technology.

Neuralink’s third brain chip patient shares first video edited with BCI

Neuralink revealed in an update on Monday morning that it has officially completed two implants in a single day, with Patients 8 and 9 both receiving devices over the past weekend.

“Both participants are recovering well and in great spirits,” the company said in the short update. It did not disclose which day the surgeries were completed, but it did state explicitly that they both occurred on the same day:

Musk said that Neuralink’s capabilities could do “life-changing good for ultimately millions, maybe billions, of people.” Right now, it is being used to help combat life-altering diseases, such as ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s Disease, as well as cervical spinal cord injuries.

Eventually, Neuralink could resolve things like anxiety, depression, and blindness, among many other ailments.

Its Link device also received FDA recognition for speech restoration earlier this year, marking a significant bit of progress in the program as it explores ways to cure ailments of various natures.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk gives key update on plans for Tesla Diner outside of LA

More Tesla Supercharger Diners are on the way, Elon Musk says, as long as the initial one is successful.

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tesla diner supercharger in los angeles california at night
Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has given a key update on its plans for the Tesla Supercharger Diner, as the first location in Los Angeles is set to open today, July 21.

The idea for the Supercharger Diner, which resembles a 50s-style eatery with elements of futuristic technology, is seven years in the making. Many wondered whether Tesla would expand its idea for a Supercharger restaurant outside of LA, and now we have an answer directly from Musk.

Elon Musk confirms awesome new features at Tesla Diner Supercharger

The Tesla CEO said that the company will establish these types of experiences “in major cities around the world, as well as at Supercharger sites on long distance routes.”

The Supercharger Diner has plenty of ways to draw in customers, and although the food and merchandise sold at the location will not be a major contributor to Tesla’s balance sheet, where investors want to see it, it could pay off in other ways.

The Diner is not exclusive to Tesla owners, so those who drive gas cars can still stop in for a burger, fries, and a shake while roaming around Los Angeles. The features of the Diner, however, do require a Tesla vehicle.

In-car ordering and movie screens syncing to the center touchscreen are two things that Tesla owners will enjoy that other drivers will not. These might be trivial, but the experience on its own could be a way that some consider buying a Tesla.

It might sound crazy that a singular diner experience would flip someone to buy a car, but it’s not the most outlandish thing we’ve ever come across.

The question is where Tesla will plan to build these Supercharger Diners. Musk has already indicated that Starbase, Texas, will be one location, which fits with one of his other companies, SpaceX.

Austin could be an ideal location, but New York, Miami, Washington D.C., Boston, and plenty of other popular metro areas within the U.S. could see their own diners in the coming years.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT

Tesla reported $2.763 billion in regulatory credit profits last year.

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Credit: Tesla

One Tesla analyst is saying that a major stock concern that has been discussed as the Trump administration aims to eliminate many financial crutches for EV and sustainable industries is overblown.

As the White House continues to put an emphasis on natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels, investors are concerned that high-powered sustainability stocks like Tesla stand to take big hits over the coming years.

However, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter believes it is just the opposite, as a new note to investors released on Monday says that the situation, especially regarding regulatory credits, is “not as bad as you think.”

Tesla stacked emissions credits in 2023, while others posted deficits

There have been many things during the Trump administration so far that have led some investors to consider divesting from Tesla altogether. Many people have shied away due to concerns over demand, as the $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit will bow out at the end of Q3.

The Trump White House could also do away with emissions credits, which aim to give automakers a threshold of emissions to encourage EV production and cleaner powertrains. Companies that cannot meet this threshold can buy credits from other companies, and Tesla has benefitted from this program immensely over the past few years.

As the Trump administration considers eliminating this program, investors are concerned that it could significantly impact Tesla’s balance sheet. Potter believes the issue is overblown:

“We frequently receive questions about Tesla’s regulatory credits, and for good reason: the company received ~$3.5B in ‘free money’ last year, representing roughly 100% of FY24 free cash flow. So it’s fair to ask: will recent regulatory changes threaten Tesla’s earnings outlook? In short, we think the answer is no, at least not in 2025. We think that while it’s true that the U.S. government is committed to rescinding financial support for the EV and battery industries, Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026. This latter figure represents a modest reduction vs. our previous expectation…in our view, there’s no need for drastic estimate revisions. Note that it’s difficult to forecast the financial impact of regulatory credits — even Tesla itself struggles with this — but the attached analysis represents an honest effort.”

Tesla’s regulatory credit profitability by year is:

  • 2020: $1.58 billion
  • 2021: $1.465 billion
  • 2022: $1.776 billion
  • 2023: $1.79 billion
  • 2024: $2.763 billion

Potter and Piper Sandler maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, and kept their $400 price target.

Tesla shares are trading at $329.63 at 11:39 a.m. on the East Coast.

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