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SpaceX delays Starlink doubleheader
Update: To “allow additional time for pre-launch checkouts,” SpaceX has delayed Starlink 2-6 from January 30th to 8:15 am PST (16:15 UTC), January 31st and Starlink 5-3 from February 1st to February 2nd.
A pair of SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are on track to round out the first month of 2023 and kick off the second with a Starlink double-header.
“To complete pre-launch checkouts,” SpaceX delayed its last launch of the month by 24 hours. The first Falcon 9 rocket will launch Starlink 2-6 and a D-Orbit rideshare payload no earlier than 8:29 am PST (16:29 UTC) on Monday, January 30th. The mission will lift off from SpaceX’s Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) SLC-4E pad and head southeast, skirting the California and Mexico coast. In case of bad weather or a minor technical issue, a backup window is available at 12:31 pm PST.
As few as 35.5 or 39.5 hours later, a second Falcon 9 rocket will lift off from SpaceX’s Florida-based NASA Kennedy Space Center LC-39A pad around 3:02 am EST (08:02 UTC) on Tuesday, February 1st.
The update that's rolling out to the fleet makes full use of the front and rear steering travel to minimize turning circle. In this case a reduction of 1.6 feet just over the air— Wes (@wmorrill3) April 16, 2024
Starlink 2-6
Kicking off the pair, Starlink 2-6 will be SpaceX’s ninth Starlink rideshare mission since the company began manifesting third-party payloads on its internet satellite launches in June 2020. Falcon 9 will launch the mission’s main payload – a batch of 49 Starlink V1.5 satellites – to a semi-polar orbit that will see them cross Earth’s equator at an angle of 70 degrees. Ordinarily, the mission would carry 51 Starlinks, but SpaceX has removed a pair of satellites to make room for Italian space logistics company D-Orbit’s ION SCV009 spacecraft.
ION weighs around 160 kilograms (350 lb) on its own and is roughly the size of a large oven. D-Orbit designed the spacecraft to host fixed payloads and deploy rideshare satellites in orbit. It also has a propulsion system that allows it to provide “last-mile delivery services,” offering rideshare customers the ability to tweak the orbit their satellite ends up in. Space tugs like ION aim to give satellite owners some of the benefits of a dedicated rocket launch (custom orbit selection in particular) while retaining most of the cost savings rideshare launches enable.
After reaching orbit, Falcon 9 will deploy ION first, use thrusters to spin itself end over end, and then release all 49 Starlink satellites simultaneously. The spinning stage’s centrifugal force causes the satellite stack to naturally spread out within several hours. The satellites then use reaction wheels to stabilize their orientation, deploy solar panels to begin charging their batteries, and eventually use ion thrusters to climb to operational orbits.
ION SCV009 will attempt to test a new satellite separation system built by EBAD and demonstrate its ability to operate in very low Earth orbit (VLEO). The spacecraft will potentially lower itself to an altitude of 270 kilometers (170 mi).
Starlink 5-3
Starlink 5-3 will carry no rideshare payloads and will likely be nearly identical to Starlink 5-2, which SpaceX successfully launched on January 26th. The latest mission’s stack of 56 Starlink V1.5 satellites weighed 17.4 tons and was the heaviest payload SpaceX has ever launched. Starlink 5-3 is targeting the same orbit and will likely also carry 56 satellites.
Pad 39A last supported SpaceX’s fifth Falcon Heavy launch on January 15th and has been quickly converted back to its single-core Falcon 9 configuration for Starlink 5-3. After the Starlink mission, Pad 39A has at least two Dragon spacecraft launches scheduled before SpaceX will need to convert it back to a triple-booster configuration for Falcon Heavy’s sixth launch.
SpaceX is scheduled to launch Crew Dragon’s Crew-6 astronaut transport mission no earlier than February 26th, and Cargo Dragon’s Spx-27 cargo delivery mission on March 11th. Falcon Heavy is scheduled to launch the giant ViaSat-3 communications satellite no earlier than March 24th.
Tune in below around 8:25 am PST (16:25 UTC) to watch SpaceX Starlink 2-6 launch live.
News
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
