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SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket celebrates 4th launch debut anniversary

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On the fourth anniversary of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launch debut and after an unusual multi-year hiatus, the world’s most powerful operational rocket could be on the brink of an impressive salvo of launches.

Four years ago yesterday, on February 6th, 2018, Falcon Heavy lifted off from NASA’s historic Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Pad 39A launch complex, launched a truly esoteric payload into interplanetary space, and officially became the largest, heaviest, and most powerful active launch vehicle in the world. It also became the third most powerful liquid rocket ever launched, placing SpaceX squarely at the table alongside the likes of NASA’s Saturn V Moon rocket and the Soviet Union’s ill-fated N-1 and Energia.

14 months later, an upgraded “Block 5” version of Falcon Heavy aced two more back-to-back launches in April and June 2019, completing its first missions for paying customers and also aiding the US Air Force in its efforts to certify the capable rocket for high-value military launches. However, such an auspicious beginning made the years of inactivity that immediately followed Falcon Heavy’s third launch even more striking.

Since Falcon Heavy’s late-June 2019 launch of the USAF’s Space Test Program 2 (STP-2) mission, the rocket hasn’t launched once. That wasn’t supposed to be the case. As of June 2018, SpaceX was supposed to launch the US Air Force’s AFSPC-52 (now USSF-52) mission in September 2020. In June 2019, Spaceflight Now reported that USSF-44 – not USSF-52 – would be SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and was expected no earlier than (NET) “late 2020.” By September 2020, USSF-44 was expected to launch in February 2021. By February 2021, the US military stated that USSF-44 was scheduled to launch NET October 2021. By October 2021, the US military had once again delayed USSF-44 to early 2022 and USSF-52 to “Q2 2022.”

While the military has done little more than acknowledge each new date, it has vaguely implied that the spacecraft – not SpaceX – are to blame for the chronic, prolonged delays. Without even a hint of an explanation, it’s unclear if those delays are likely to end anytime soon, potentially delaying USSF-44 and USSF-52 into the second half or last quarter of 2022 and pushing USSF-67 into 2023. Thankfully, unreliable US military payloads aren’t the only Falcon Heavy missions scheduled this year.

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At a minimum, SpaceX is contracted to launch the ViaSat’s first of three next-generation ViaSat-3 communications satellite directly to geostationary orbit (GEO). The launch was recently delayed from Q2 to the end of Q3 2022. SpaceX is also scheduled to launch NASA’s Psyche mission – a spacecraft designed to visit and study an asteroid made almost entirely out of metal – NET August 2022. While customer Inmarsat has yet to finalize or announce a contract decision, Falcon Heavy could potentially be tasked with launching the second Inmarsat-6 geostationary communications satellite sometime later this year.

All told, if every customer is able to stem each torrent of delays, Falcon Heavy could feasibly launch five or even six times in 2022. More conservatively, if USSF-67 and ViaSat-3 are delayed to 2023 and Inmarsat-6 F2 goes to Falcon 9, the world’s largest operational rocket could still launch three times in 2022 and still have up to three more launches scheduled next year.

For now, Falcon Heavy’s first launch in at least 33 months and fourth launch overall isn’t expected until March 2022 at the earliest.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX hit with mishap investigation by FAA for Starship Flight 9

Starship’s ninth test flight has the FAA requiring a mishap investigation from SpaceX.

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX has been hit with yet another mishap investigation by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) related to the company’s ninth test flight of Starship earlier this week.

The FAA said the mishap investigation is “focused only on the loss of the Starship vehicle, which did not complete its launch or reentry as planned.” The agency said the loss of the Super Heavy booster is covered by one of the FAA’s approved test induced damage exceptions requested by SpaceX.

All of Starship and Super Heavy booster debris landed within the designated hazard areas, the FAA confirmed.

SpaceX Starship Flight 9 recap: objectives & outcomes

It said it activated a Debris Response Area out of an abundance of caution as the booster “experienced its anomaly over the Gulf of America during its flyback toward Texas. The FAA subsequently determined the debris did not fall outside of the hazard area. During the event there were zero departure delays, one flight was diverted, and one airborne flight was held for 24 minutes. ”

SpaceX has become accustomed to mishap investigations by the FAA, as they have been impacted by them on several occasions in the past, including on Flight 8. However, they are a precautionary measure and usually are resolved within a few weeks.

Flight 9 was one of SpaceX’s most eventful, as there were several discoveries during the launch. First, it was SpaceX’s first time reusing a Super Heavy booster, as the one utilized for Flight 9 was also used on Flight 7 in January.

Contact with the booster and Starship were both lost during Flight 9. SpaceX said the booster was lost “shortly after the start of landing burn when it experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly approximately 6 minutes after launch.”

Meanwhile, Starship was set to make a splashdown in the Indian Ocean, but the vehicle was lost about 46 minutes into the flight, SpaceX said in a mission recap.

It was an improvement from the previous two flights, as both 7 and 8 resulted in the loss of Starship after just a few minutes. Flight 9 lasted considerably longer. These flights are also not intended to make it to Mars, despite what other reports might try to tell you.

These are ways to gain information for when SpaceX eventually tries to get Starship to Mars.

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Tesla bull writes cautious note on Robotaxi launch: ‘Keep expectations well contained’

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is more cautious about Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley is telling investors to be wary of the Robotaxi details CEO Elon Musk revealed this week, after a report seemed to land on the prospective launch date of the platform in June.

Earlier this week, a report from Bloomberg indicated Tesla had internally landed on a tentative date of June 12 for its Robotaxi launch in Austin. Shortly after, Musk detailed the successful testing Tesla has already performed without anyone in the driver’s seat.

Tesla lands on date for Robotaxi launch in Austin: report

He also indicated Teslas would self-deliver to customers in June.

Analysts are now sending out investor notes on the announcement Musk made, along with the Bloomberg report. Jonas’s note is more cautious than others.

Jonas believes Tesla needs to shed more details before investors and fans of the company get too excited. He believes there is more information that could be released, but until then, he is suggesting investors “keep expectations well contained.”

He wrote:

“As is typical for highly anticipated Tesla events, we would keep expectations well contained for the (reported) June 12th Cybercab launch event in Austin. However, we would look for a continued stream of updates for the performance and growth of the network thereafter (numbers of cars, miles, trips, etc.) in the days and weeks that follow.”

The tone of Jonas’s note contradicts that of Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who believes the “golden age of autonomous” lies in Tesla’s hands. He seems to believe Tesla will come through on its June 12 launch.

Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

Morgan Stanley’s note is slightly more

Jonas is obviously still bullish, but is much more tentative to move forward with an attitude that communicates skepticism about what Tesla has revealed.

Jonas and Morgan Stanley have a $410 price target on Tesla shares with a ‘Buy’ rating. Tesla stock is trading at around $358 at 12:15 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla’s apparent affordable model zips around Fremont test track

Tesla was zipping around a strange, covered, compact Model Y at Fremont this week.

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tesla affordable model prototype on fremont factory test track
Credit: Met God in Wilderness | YouTube

Tesla was racing a compact, short, and stocky Model Y with front and rear end covers around its Fremont Factory’s test track today, potentially giving us a look at the upcoming affordable model.

On Thursday, Met God in the Wilderness on YouTube posted a flyover of the Fremont Factory, a weekly occurrence for the channel. This week’s video featured a smaller, more compact Model Y racing around the Test Track at Fremont, trailed by a Cybertruck:

While both bumpers are covered, it still seems to be a much more compact version of the Model Y. There is also the potential that this is the upcoming Model Y Performance, but it seems that this vehicle is smaller than the traditional Model Y. Tesla would not reduce its size this much for the Performance configuration.

With that, it seems more likely it is one of the affordable models.

Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25

It also plays into the idea that Tesla is planning to launch vehicles very similar to the Model Y and Model 3. During the last Earnings Call, Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy stated that the affordable models the company planned to launch would be of the same form and factor as the Model Y, indicating potentially a stripped-down version of the all-electric crossover:

“I will say it’s important to emphasize that, as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and, you know, the design of it is really limited to what we can do on our existing lines rather than building new ones.”

This was essentially a read-between-the-lines moment for investors as they took it as the affordable models would not be much different than the Model Y.

This vehicle seems to fit the bill of what Moravy described: it is eerily similar to the Model Y without the lengthened front and rear. While it is still tough to determine exactly what it is, it surely does look to be something that Tesla is keeping under wraps for the short term.

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