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SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket celebrates 4th launch debut anniversary
On the fourth anniversary of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launch debut and after an unusual multi-year hiatus, the world’s most powerful operational rocket could be on the brink of an impressive salvo of launches.
Four years ago yesterday, on February 6th, 2018, Falcon Heavy lifted off from NASA’s historic Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Pad 39A launch complex, launched a truly esoteric payload into interplanetary space, and officially became the largest, heaviest, and most powerful active launch vehicle in the world. It also became the third most powerful liquid rocket ever launched, placing SpaceX squarely at the table alongside the likes of NASA’s Saturn V Moon rocket and the Soviet Union’s ill-fated N-1 and Energia.
14 months later, an upgraded “Block 5” version of Falcon Heavy aced two more back-to-back launches in April and June 2019, completing its first missions for paying customers and also aiding the US Air Force in its efforts to certify the capable rocket for high-value military launches. However, such an auspicious beginning made the years of inactivity that immediately followed Falcon Heavy’s third launch even more striking.
Since Falcon Heavy’s late-June 2019 launch of the USAF’s Space Test Program 2 (STP-2) mission, the rocket hasn’t launched once. That wasn’t supposed to be the case. As of June 2018, SpaceX was supposed to launch the US Air Force’s AFSPC-52 (now USSF-52) mission in September 2020. In June 2019, Spaceflight Now reported that USSF-44 – not USSF-52 – would be SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and was expected no earlier than (NET) “late 2020.” By September 2020, USSF-44 was expected to launch in February 2021. By February 2021, the US military stated that USSF-44 was scheduled to launch NET October 2021. By October 2021, the US military had once again delayed USSF-44 to early 2022 and USSF-52 to “Q2 2022.”
While the military has done little more than acknowledge each new date, it has vaguely implied that the spacecraft – not SpaceX – are to blame for the chronic, prolonged delays. Without even a hint of an explanation, it’s unclear if those delays are likely to end anytime soon, potentially delaying USSF-44 and USSF-52 into the second half or last quarter of 2022 and pushing USSF-67 into 2023. Thankfully, unreliable US military payloads aren’t the only Falcon Heavy missions scheduled this year.
At a minimum, SpaceX is contracted to launch the ViaSat’s first of three next-generation ViaSat-3 communications satellite directly to geostationary orbit (GEO). The launch was recently delayed from Q2 to the end of Q3 2022. SpaceX is also scheduled to launch NASA’s Psyche mission – a spacecraft designed to visit and study an asteroid made almost entirely out of metal – NET August 2022. While customer Inmarsat has yet to finalize or announce a contract decision, Falcon Heavy could potentially be tasked with launching the second Inmarsat-6 geostationary communications satellite sometime later this year.
All told, if every customer is able to stem each torrent of delays, Falcon Heavy could feasibly launch five or even six times in 2022. More conservatively, if USSF-67 and ViaSat-3 are delayed to 2023 and Inmarsat-6 F2 goes to Falcon 9, the world’s largest operational rocket could still launch three times in 2022 and still have up to three more launches scheduled next year.
For now, Falcon Heavy’s first launch in at least 33 months and fourth launch overall isn’t expected until March 2022 at the earliest.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
News
Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release
In a comment last October, Elon Musk stated that FSD V14.2 is “for widespread use.”
Tesla has begun rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.2, and with this, the wide release of the system could very well begin.
The update introduces a new high-resolution vision encoder, expanded emergency-vehicle handling, smarter routing, new parking options, and more refined driving behavior, among other improvements.
FSD V14.2 improvements
FSD (Supervised) V14.2’s release notes highlight a fully upgraded neural-network vision encoder capable of reading higher-resolution features, giving the system improved awareness of emergency vehicles, road obstacles, and even human gestures. Tesla also expanded its emergency-vehicle protocols, adding controlled pull-overs and yielding behavior for police cars, fire trucks, and ambulances, among others.
A deeper integration of navigation and routing into the vision network now allows the system to respond to blocked roads or detours in real time. The update also enhances decision-making in several complex scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and interactions with school buses. All in all, these improvements should help FSD (Supervised) V14.2 perform in a very smooth and comfortable manner.
Elon Musk’s predicted wide release
The significance of V14.2 grows when paired with Elon Musk’s comments from October. While responding to FSD tester AI DRIVR, who praised V14.1.2 for fixing “95% of indecisive lane changes and braking” and who noted that it was time for FSD to go on wide release, Musk stated that “14.2 for widespread use.”
FSD V14 has so far received a substantial amount of positive reviews from Tesla owners, many of whom have stated that the system now drives better than some human drivers as it is confident, cautious, and considerate at the same time. With V14.2 now rolling out, it remains to be seen if the update also makes it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by a large number of HW3 vehicles.
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
