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SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy to usher Air Force into a new era of reusable rockets
After a few late-stage schedule tweaks, SpaceX’s third Falcon Heavy launch – set to deliver 24 spacecraft to a variety of orbits – is ready to usher the US Air Force into a new age of commercial rocket reuse as early as 11:30 pm ET (03:30 UTC), June 24th.
Split among the USAF, Department of Defense (DoD) research labs, NASA, NOAA, and a few US universities, STP-2’s 24 satellites will launch aboard SpaceX’s second Falcon Heavy Block 5 rocket. Both side boosters are flight-proven, having supported Falcon Heavy Block 5’s launch debut on April 11th, just 54 days ago. If all goes as planned, STP-2 will simultaneously give the USAF the data it needs to fully certify Falcon Heavy for all military launches and set the US military up to certify flight-proven commercial rockets for future launch contracts.
Signalling just how important the company feels this mission is, a dedicated STP-2 website created by SpaceX offers an excellent explanation of all aspects of the mission, from the technical to the strategic.
“The STP-2 mission will be among the most challenging launches in SpaceX history with four separate upper-stage engine burns, three separate deployment orbits, a final propulsive passivation maneuver and a total mission duration of over six hours. In addition, the U.S. Air Force plans to reuse side boosters from the Arabsat 6A Falcon Heavy launch, recovered after a return to launch site [RTLS] landing, making it the first reused Falcon Heavy ever flown for the U.S. Air Force.
[STP-2] will demonstrate the capabilities of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch vehicle and provide critical data supporting certification for future National Security Space Launch (NSSL) missions. In addition, [the Air Force Space & Missile Systems Center (SMC)] will use this mission as a pathfinder for the development of mission assurance policies and procedures related to the reuse of launch vehicle boosters.“ – SpaceX.com/STP-2
Following the ~June 1st arrival of Falcon Heavy center core B1057, all STP-2 launch hardware is now on site at SpaceX’s Pad 39A launch complex and nearby payload processing facilities. Although we will have to wait for official photo confirmation, SpaceX is likely in the late stages of integrating Falcon Heavy’s three boosters and upper stage, while some combination of DoD and SpaceX technicians are presumably in the middle of preparing all 24 STP-2 satellites for launch.
Falcon Heavy Flight 3’s next visible milestone will probably be the integrated rocket’s roll-out to Pad 39A for a routine static fire test, likely to occur 3-7 days prior to June 24th.
Record-breaking reusability
Incredibly, despite the schedule overhead likely added by this mission’s crucial pathfinder nature, the current June 24th launch date would permit side boosters B1052 and B1053 to simultaneously break SpaceX’s current booster turnaround record. Set in mid-2018 by B1045 on SpaceX’s last non-Block 5 launch, the record turnaround (time between launches) of 72 days would be beaten at 68 days for STP-2, barring any additional delays.
Whether STP-2’s side boosters literally beat SpaceX’s 72-day reusability record is immaterial to the actual significance of this milestone. If SpaceX can beat its old record as part of what is arguably its most complex launch ever, it’s safe to say that Block 5 reusability – particularly for gently-used boosters – is already a spectacular success. It also suggests that SpaceX technicians and launch engineers are becoming extremely familiar and comfortable with Falcon Heavy launch operations, to the extent that two boosters used on two Falcon Heavy launches could break SpaceX’s most significant reusability record.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
