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SpaceX begins Falcon Heavy booster deliveries for first launch in two years
SpaceX’s first Falcon Heavy rocket launch in almost two years has entered the final stages of preparations – flight hardware acceptance testing, delivery, and assembly.
Comprised of five major elements, the vast majority of the challenges of building and launching Falcon Heavy come from the rocket’s three first-stage boosters – each more or less equivalent to a single-core Falcon 9 booster. Falcon Heavy’s twin side boosters are by far the most visually recognizable sign of that similar-but-different nature thanks to the need for aerodynamic nosecones instead of a Falcon booster’s normal interstage (a hollow cylinder).
While easily recognizable, the center core is the most technically Falcon Heavy-specific part of SpaceX’s partially-reusable heavy-lift rocket, requiring a unique airframe relative to side cores, which are essentially Falcon 9 boosters with a few major add-ons. It’s one of those Falcon Heavy side boosters that was spotted traveling by road from SpaceX’s test facilities to a Florida launch pad on Tuesday, January 26th.
For unknown reasons, although SpaceX currently has two reused Falcon Heavy side boosters that flew a second time on the US Air Force’s own STP-2 mission, the company has manufactured all-new boosters – likely at the US military’s request – for the rocket’s fourth launch. Rebadged from AFSPC-44 to USSF-44, that mission will see SpaceX attempt its first-ever direct-to-GEO launch, nominally launching a several-ton mystery satellite directly into geostationary orbit (GEO).
The main challenge of direct-to-GEO launches is the need for a given rocket’s upper stage to coast for hours in orbit and then reignite after that multi-hour coast period. The direct launch profile also demands more delta-V (propellant) than alternative transfer orbits (GTOs) – propellant that must be launched into orbit in addition to the customer’s payload. That requires the use of extremely large and/or efficient rockets, which is why SpaceX is launching USSF-44 with Falcon Heavy instead of a much cheaper and simpler Falcon 9.
Unlike all other direct-to-GEO launches in history, however, Falcon Heavy Flight 4 will (hopefully) mark the first time a rocket launches a payload into geostationary orbit while still recovering a large portion of its first stage. After liftoff, Falcon Heavy side boosters B1064 and B1065 will attempt the first-ever dual drone ship landing at sea, while the rocket’s custom center core will be intentionally expended. According to CEO Elon Musk, that sacrificial-center-core configuration theoretically allows Falcon Heavy to achieve ~90% of its expendable performance while still recovering two otherwise reusable boosters.
As of the first USSF-44 side booster’s appearance in Louisiana, at least one other booster (most likely the mission’s second side booster) has already been spotted at SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas development facilities and may have already completed its own round of static fire acceptance testing. Given the three-month gap between the first USSF-44 side booster’s static fire and a side booster’s appearance in transport, there’s a distant possibility that the booster spotted on January 26th was the second of two side boosters to ship east, but that’s improbable given how much Falcon boosters stick out on the road.
Ultimately, assuming the second USSF-44 side booster’s static fire acceptance test went well, the only major Falcon Heavy-specific hardware SpaceX needs to ship from its Hawthorne, CA headquarters is center core B1066. An upper stage and payload fairing will also have to pass acceptance testing and head to Florida but both will likely be standard Falcon 9-issue hardware, minimizing small-batch uncertainty.
If SpaceX delivers B1066 to McGregor within the next week or two, the center core should be ready to ship to Florida by March or April, leaving SpaceX two or three months to integrate, static fire, and prepare Falcon Heavy for its fourth launch. According to the latest official information from the US military, USSF-44 is scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) “late-spring 2021,” likely implying late-May or June.
Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
