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SpaceX’s first Falcon 9 landing of 2019 foreshadows rapid rocket fleet growth

Falcon 9 B1049 landed successfully on drone ship Just Read The Instructions despite less than calm seas. (SpaceX)

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Despite an unplanned landing anomaly that foiled SpaceX’s last Falcon 9 recovery attempt, the company’s engineers and technicians have pulled off another successful launch and landing of Falcon 9 – the 33rd for the rocket family – and the first of the new year.

After helping place Iridium’s 8th and final set of NEXT satellites into a parking orbit, Falcon 9 B1049 landed aboard drone ship Just Read The Instructions approximately 7 minutes after liftoff, marking the Block 5 booster’s second successful mission in just under four months. As of now, all but one of SpaceX’s flight-ready Falcon 9 boosters have now performed two or three orbital-class launches and are quickly becoming a truly reusable fleet of rockets.

Throughout the second half of 2018, SpaceX gradually built, tested, launched, and relaunched a growing fleet of Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters, the first of which debuted in May. Including new boosters that have arrived at their launch pads but have yet to launch, SpaceX’s skilled production and testing team managed to ship, test, and deliver an impressive 1 to 1.5 Falcon 9 boosters, 1-2 upper stages, and 3-4 payload fairing halves on average each month. Thanks to Falcon 9 Block 5’s increasingly exceptional reusability, SpaceX does not have to outproduce other companies and national space programs to dramatically out-launch them, exemplifed by the fact that SpaceX alone was able to launch more orbital missions than the combined output of every company and country aside from China.

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As more Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy Block 5 booster are introduced into SpaceX’s growing fleet, the company’s many distinct advantages of direct and indirect competitors should come more and more into play and be increasingly difficult to avoid or ignore. As of today, a fairly incredible number of additional new Falcon boosters are already in their testing and delivery phases, a number that ignores the four (or five) flight-proven boosters and two unflown Falcons known to already be at or ready to ship to launch sites.

 

Just for Falcon Heavy’s second and third launches (NET March and April), SpaceX will deliver another two boosters (one side and one center) to Florida within the next ~6 weeks and will likely ship, test, and deliver another two or three new Falcon 9 boosters in the first half of 2019 for commercial missions and two crewed Crew Dragon launches scheduled for the second half of the year. Although Falcon Heavy’s new side boosters will likely remain side boosters for both of the rocket’s next missions, that should mean that they will be free enter the single-stick Falcon 9 fleet sometime in H2 2019, as will the three new boosters assigned to Crew Dragon this year. Falcon Heavy’s center core will remain dedicated to Falcon Heavy launches as a result of the extensive modifications necessary to support triple the thrust of a normal Falcon 9.

Regardless, this ultimately means that SpaceX’s reusable Falcon fleet could feature as many as 12-15 boosters capable of something like 5-10 additional launches each by the second half of fourth quarter of 2019. At that point, SpaceX might have enough experience with Block 5 and enough flight-proven boosters to plausibly begin a revolutionary shift in how commercial launches are done. With far more boosters available than SpaceX has payloads to launch, multiple flight-ready Block 5 rockets will inevitably stack up at or around the company’s three launch pads and surrounding integration and refurbishment facilities.

Instead of the current process of launch where boosters are dedicated to certain missions in fairly iron-clad terms, SpaceX could conceivably treat its launch services as actual services, meaning that – aside from requests for unflown hardware or customer-specific standards (i.e. USAF/NASA/NRO) –  the specifics of booster assignments would be no more of a worry to customers than the cargo plane goods are delivered with matters to 99% of logistics customers. A plane is typically a plane regardless of whether it has flown for 10 hours or 10,000 hours. That sort of interchangeability and hands-off approach to customers is likely at least 12 months off, if not longer (old habits die hard), but a fleet of a dozen or more flight-ready rockets is truly a brave new world for commercial spaceflight and even spaceflight in general.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang regrets not investing more in Elon Musk’s xAI

The CEO stated that Nvidia is already an investor in xAI, but he wished he had given the artificial intelligence startup more money.

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Credit: Elon Musk/X

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed that one of his investment regrets is not putting more money into Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI. 

Speaking in a CNBC interview, Huang said Nvidia is already an investor in xAI but wished he had given the artificial intelligence startup more money. This was due to Musk’s record of building transformative companies such as Tesla and SpaceX.

A new wave of transformative AI firms

Huang said he’s very excited about xAI’s latest financing round. He described Musk’s company as part of a powerful new generation of AI developers, alongside OpenAI and Anthropic. that are reshaping the computing landscape.

“I’m super excited about the financing opportunity they’re doing. The only regret I have about xAI, we’re an investor already, is that I didn’t give him more money. You know almost everything that Elon’s pat of, you really want to be part of as well,” the Nvidia CEO stated.

The CEO also clarified Nvidia’s investment in xAI, revealing that Elon Musk had offered the investment opportunity to the chipmaker. “He (Musk) gave us the opportunity to invest in xAI. I’m just delighted by that,” Huang stated.

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AI investment boom

Huang contrasted today’s AI-driven economy with the early days of the internet. “Back then, all the internet companies combined were maybe $30 or $40 billion in size,” he said. “If you look at the hyperscalers now, that’s about $2.5 trillion of business already operating today.”

He also stated that the ongoing shift from CPU-based computing to GPU-powered generative AI represents a “multi-trillion-dollar buildout” that Nvidia is looking to support. Huang added that every Nvidia engineer now works with AI coding assistants such as Cursor, which he called his “favorite enterprise AI service,” and it has led to a major productivity boost across the company.

Watch Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s CNBC interview in the video below.

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Investor's Corner

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.

Building confidence

In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.

Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.

https://twitter.com/AIStockSavvy/status/1975893527344345556

Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious

While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.

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“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.

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Tesla Cybertruck’s Full Self-Driving update is ‘coming soon’

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Tesla Cybertruck owners are wondering when they will get access to the company’s Full Self-Driving version 14.1 that rolled out to other owners today for the first time.

Cybertruck owners typically receive Full Self-Driving updates slightly later than other drivers, as the process for the all-electric pickup is different. It is a larger vehicle that requires some additional attention from Tesla before FSD versions are rolled out, so they will be slightly delayed. CEO Elon Musk said the all-wheel steering technically requires a bit more attention before rollout as well.

After some owners got access to the v14.1 Full Self-Driving suite this morning, Cybertruck owners sought out a potential timeframe for when they would be able to experience things for themselves.

Tesla owners show off improvements with new Full Self-Driving v14 rollout

They were able to get an answer from Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, who said:

“We got you. Coming soon.”

The release of FSD v14.1 for Cybertruck will not be tempered, either. Elluswamy then confirmed that Tesla would be rolling out the full-featured FSD v14 for the pickup, meaning it would be able to reverse and park itself, among other features.

Elluswamy said it would be capable of these features, which were void in other FSD releases for Cybertruck in the past.

Tesla’s rollout of FSD v14.1 brings several extremely notable changes and improvements to the suite, including more refined operation in parking garages, a new ability to choose parking preferences upon arriving at your destination, a new driving mode called “Sloth,” which is even more reserved than “Chill,” and general operational improvements.

Those who were lucky enough to receive the suite have already started showing off the improvements, and they definitely seem to be a step up from what v13’s more recent versions were capable of.

CEO Elon Musk called v14 “sentient” a few weeks back, and it seems that it is moving toward that. However, he did state that additional releases with more capabilities would be available in the coming weeks, but many owners are still waiting for this first version.

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