News
SpaceX schedules first Falcon Heavy launch in two years in early October
For the first time in more than two years, SpaceX has a firm launch date for its next Falcon Heavy mission: October 9th, 2021.
Revealed on September 7th as part of a US Space Systems Command presentation at the 2021 Small Payload Ride Share Symposium, October 9th now appears to be the military’s official target date for SpaceX’s fourth Falcon Heavy launch ever. Currently the most powerful and capable commercial rocket in operation and likely to remain so – perhaps alongside Starship – for years to come, Falcon Heavy debuted in February 2018, successfully delivering a mock payload into interplanetary space.
After another 14 months of work, SpaceX then debuted Falcon Heavy Block 5 – an upgraded version of the rocket that took advantage of all of Block 5’s reusability, reliability, and performance improvements. Just two months after Falcon Heavy Block 5’s inaugural April 2019 launch, SpaceX launched the rocket for the third time, supporting a US Air Force rideshare mission, reusing both of Flight 2’s side boosters, and giving the US military a firsthand demonstration of the rocket’s capabilities. However, Falcon Heavy has not flown once since then.
For mostly unknown reasons, Falcon Heavy’s fourth launch – a US military mission known as USSF-44 (formerly AFSPC-44) – has gradually slipped from a late-2020 target to Q1, Q2, Q3, and finally Q4 (October) 2021. SpaceX only began qualifying USSF-44’s Falcon Heavy boosters at its McGregor, Texas test facilities in late September 2020, a few weeks after delays from late-2020 to February 2021 and June 2021 were quietly announced. At that point, the US was deep into the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic’s local peak.
Only in May 2021 did the US military finally directly address major USSF-44 and USSF-52 delays, blaming them on “payload readiness.” Given that the Space Force never blamed SpaceX or rocket availability for what is likely to be a full year of launch delays, the implication is that likely satellite manufacturers Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Maxar, or Boeing have run into major technical issues. It’s also possible that those payload-side delays have been caused by a combination of supply chain issues and constraints brought on by the ongoing global pandemic.
Meanwhile, USSF-44’s all-new Falcon Heavy rocket appears to have been at Cape Canaveral and more or less ready for flight since Q2 2021 and SpaceX has been hard at work qualifying at least two more Falcon Heavy center cores for at least two additional missions scheduled in H1 2022.
Scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) October 9th, Falcon Heavy #4 will likely roll out to Kennedy Space Center Pad 39A around 5-7 days prior for a crucial static fire test and pad shakedown. SpaceX is currently scheduled to launch Crew Dragon’s all-private Inspiration4 mission as early as September 14th, giving the company around three weeks to modify Pad 39A and its transporter/erector, gather all four USSF-44 Falcon Heavy stages, and assemble the rocket. Another Crew Dragon mission is then scheduled to launch as early as October 31st, again leaving SpaceX less than three weeks to reconfigure Pad 39A.
Successfully completing that back-to-back-to-back Dragon-FH-Dragon manifest on schedule will be a significant challenge and delays are probably more likely than not. Nevertheless, Falcon Heavy will likely roll out to the launch pad for the first time in more than two years less than a month from today.

Investor's Corner
Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook
Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.
Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.
Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.
While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.
The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.
Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings
Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.
They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.
Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.
Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.
Ives said in a note on October 2:
“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”
Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.
Elon Musk
Tesla preps for a harsh potential reality if Musk comp vote doesn’t go to plan
A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.
Tesla could be forced to look for a new CEO in the coming months, as a crucial November 6 Shareholder Meeting vote will determine whether Elon Musk will stick around.
A major vote is coming up at the 2025 Tesla Shareholder Meeting, as investors will determine whether Musk should be given a new compensation plan that would award him up to $1 trillion and more than one-fourth of the total voting power within the company.
Tesla board chair reiterates widely unmentioned point of Musk comp plan
A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.
“My fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have at Tesla is if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be ousted at some point in the future? That’s my biggest concern,” Musk said at last week’s Earnings Call. “That’s what it comes down to in a nutshell. I don’t feel comfortable wielding that robot army if I don’t have at least a strong influence.”
Tesla Board of Directors Head Robyn Denholm has been on somewhat of a PR tour over the past few days, answering questions about the compensation plan, which is among the biggest issues currently for the company.
Denholm told Bloomberg yesterday that Tesla investors need to be prepared for Musk to abandon ship if the package is not approved, which brings on a new question: Who would take over the CEO role?
That is a question Denholm also answered yesterday, bringing forth the conclusion that Tesla would not look for an outside hire if Musk were to leave the company. Instead, it would promote someone internally.
The way it was reported by Bloomberg and Reuters seems to make it seem as if Tesla is preparing for the worst, as it states the company “is looking at internal CEO candidates,” not preparing to do so.
Of the executives at Tesla who immediately come to mind as ideal candidates for a potential takeover should Musk leave, Tesla China President Tom Zhu and Head of AI Ashok Elluswamy both come to mind. Zhu has monumental executive experience already, as he was appointed to the role of Senior VP of Automotive back in December 2022.
He then returned to China in 2024.
It seems Tesla wants to align its future, with or without Musk, on the same path that it is currently on, and internal candidates might have a better idea of what that looks like and truly means.
News
Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) is nearing approval in a new country
As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.
It appears that Tesla FSD (Supervised) is heading to a new country soon, at least based on comments from Israel’s Transport and Road Safety Minister Miri Regev.
As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.
Israeli drivers are pushing for FSD rollout
While Tesla’s FSD is already operational in markets like the U.S., Canada, and Australia, Israeli owners have long been unable to use the feature due to regulatory barriers. Despite its premium price tag, however, numerous Tesla owners in Israel have noted that the technology’s safety benefits, at least when approved for real-world use in the country, justify its cost.
It was then no surprise that nearly 1,000 Tesla owners in Israel have already petitioned the government to greenlight FSD’s domestic release in Israel. In a post on X, Regev seemed to confirm that FSD is indeed coming to Israel. “I’ve received the many referrals from Tesla drivers in Israel! Tesla drivers? Soon you won’t need to hold the steering wheel,” she wrote in her post.
FSD’s regulatory support in Israel
Regev stated that her Ministry views promoting innovative technologies as essential to improving both road safety and smart mobility. A working group led by Moshe Ben-Zaken, Director General of the Ministry of Transportation has reportedly been tasked to finalize the approval process, coordinating with regulatory and safety agencies to ensure compliance with international standards.
In a comment to Geektime, Israel’s Ministry of Transportation and Road Safety noted that Regev is indeed supporting the release of FSD in the country. “Minister Regev sees great importance in promoting innovative technologies, and in particular in the entry of advanced driving systems (FSD) into the Israeli market, as part of the ministry’s policy to encourage innovation, safety, and smart transportation,” the Ministry stated.
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