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SpaceX schedules first Falcon Heavy launch in two years in early October
For the first time in more than two years, SpaceX has a firm launch date for its next Falcon Heavy mission: October 9th, 2021.
Revealed on September 7th as part of a US Space Systems Command presentation at the 2021 Small Payload Ride Share Symposium, October 9th now appears to be the military’s official target date for SpaceX’s fourth Falcon Heavy launch ever. Currently the most powerful and capable commercial rocket in operation and likely to remain so – perhaps alongside Starship – for years to come, Falcon Heavy debuted in February 2018, successfully delivering a mock payload into interplanetary space.
After another 14 months of work, SpaceX then debuted Falcon Heavy Block 5 – an upgraded version of the rocket that took advantage of all of Block 5’s reusability, reliability, and performance improvements. Just two months after Falcon Heavy Block 5’s inaugural April 2019 launch, SpaceX launched the rocket for the third time, supporting a US Air Force rideshare mission, reusing both of Flight 2’s side boosters, and giving the US military a firsthand demonstration of the rocket’s capabilities. However, Falcon Heavy has not flown once since then.
For mostly unknown reasons, Falcon Heavy’s fourth launch – a US military mission known as USSF-44 (formerly AFSPC-44) – has gradually slipped from a late-2020 target to Q1, Q2, Q3, and finally Q4 (October) 2021. SpaceX only began qualifying USSF-44’s Falcon Heavy boosters at its McGregor, Texas test facilities in late September 2020, a few weeks after delays from late-2020 to February 2021 and June 2021 were quietly announced. At that point, the US was deep into the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic’s local peak.
Only in May 2021 did the US military finally directly address major USSF-44 and USSF-52 delays, blaming them on “payload readiness.” Given that the Space Force never blamed SpaceX or rocket availability for what is likely to be a full year of launch delays, the implication is that likely satellite manufacturers Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Maxar, or Boeing have run into major technical issues. It’s also possible that those payload-side delays have been caused by a combination of supply chain issues and constraints brought on by the ongoing global pandemic.
Meanwhile, USSF-44’s all-new Falcon Heavy rocket appears to have been at Cape Canaveral and more or less ready for flight since Q2 2021 and SpaceX has been hard at work qualifying at least two more Falcon Heavy center cores for at least two additional missions scheduled in H1 2022.
Scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) October 9th, Falcon Heavy #4 will likely roll out to Kennedy Space Center Pad 39A around 5-7 days prior for a crucial static fire test and pad shakedown. SpaceX is currently scheduled to launch Crew Dragon’s all-private Inspiration4 mission as early as September 14th, giving the company around three weeks to modify Pad 39A and its transporter/erector, gather all four USSF-44 Falcon Heavy stages, and assemble the rocket. Another Crew Dragon mission is then scheduled to launch as early as October 31st, again leaving SpaceX less than three weeks to reconfigure Pad 39A.
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Successfully completing that back-to-back-to-back Dragon-FH-Dragon manifest on schedule will be a significant challenge and delays are probably more likely than not. Nevertheless, Falcon Heavy will likely roll out to the launch pad for the first time in more than two years less than a month from today.
Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.
SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.
The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.
Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean
Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.
We’re sending a ship out to recover Starship https://t.co/fUqUZTITO9
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 28, 2026
This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.
Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims
Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.
The ship landing was precise, meaning that it would have been caught by the tower arms https://t.co/6nbNrRfX9P
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.
It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.
Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.
The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.
Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”
People on Mars in roughly 5 to 7 years.
Mars lander a few years sooner.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”
Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.
Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.
In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.
The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).
Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.
Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.
SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.
It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.
The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.
Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.
Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch
Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars
