News
SpaceX follows up Falcon Heavy spectacle with sunrise Falcon 9 launch
SpaceX has followed up Falcon Heavy’s latest spectacle with a Falcon 9 launch shortly after sunrise, producing more ethereal views of the company’s rockets in action.
SpaceX’s visual style is off to a strong start in 2023. All rocket launches are impressive to some degree, but SpaceX has managed to complete Falcon Heavy’s first twilight launch and a Falcon 9 launch backlit by the morning sun less than three days apart. Falcon Heavy kicked off the pair on January 15th with the successful launch of the US Space Force’s USSF-67 mission. Three times more powerful than Falcon 9 and the most capable commercial rocket ever built, Falcon Heavy lifted off shortly after sunset. The fury of its exhaust was amplified by the twilight sky as it rose back into sunlight, producing one of the most visually spectacular launches in SpaceX history.
62 hours later, a Falcon 9 rocket launched from SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) LC-40 pad with the US military’s sixth upgraded GPS III navigation satellite inside its payload fairing. The mission was a flawless success. Falcon 9 booster B1077 touched down on drone ship A Shortfall of Gravitas eight and a half minutes after liftoff, completing its second orbital-class launch and landing. 90 minutes after leaving the ground, Falcon 9’s upper stage deployed the GPS III SV06 satellite into a nominal transfer orbit with one end at 392 kilometers and the other around 20,170 kilometers (~12,530 mi) above Earth’s surface. The satellite will use its own propulsion to raise itself into a circular orbit, where it will eventually enter operation and begin distributing more accurate location information.
The update that's rolling out to the fleet makes full use of the front and rear steering travel to minimize turning circle. In this case a reduction of 1.6 feet just over the air— Wes (@wmorrill3) April 16, 2024
For unknown reasons, SpaceX delayed the launch 14 minutes, pushing the T-0 time from 7:10 am to 7:24 am – from just before to just after sunrise. As a result, instead of a brief twilight spectacle, Falcon 9 lifted off with the morning sun low in the sky and almost directly behind the rocket from certain perspectives. Rocket solar transits are possibly even rarer than optimal twilight launches, making for an exceptionally impressive pair of back-to-back SpaceX missions.
Heading toward 100?
GPS III SV06 was SpaceX’s fourth launch in the first 18 days of 2023. That pace is far from unusual after the company’s record-breaking 2022, but the fact that three of those missions launched from one pad – LC-40 – is. Over the last six weeks, SpaceX has launched six Falcon 9 rockets from LC-40 – an average of one launch every seven days. That sustained cadence is unprecedented for a single SpaceX pad, and the company has three.
In 2022, LC-40 managed 33 launches – one launch every 11 days. It’s California (SLC-4E) and Kennedy Space Center (Pad 39A) facilities combined to support 28 launches, for a total of 61 Falcon launches last year. It’s well known that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s target of 100 launches in 2023 is exceptionally ambitious and could be hard to hit. But already, SpaceX’s performance over the last six weeks is making that unprecedented target more and more achievable.
LC-40 is not alone in its improved cadence. For the workhorse pad’s six launches, SLC-4E managed five launches in the same six-week period. Combined, all three SpaceX pads have supported 11 successful launches in the last 42 days, equating to 95 launches per year if sustained for all of 2023. Having already sustained that pace for six weeks, and with an almost unbelievable 2022 under its belt, launching 100 times in 2023 suddenly seems like a real possibility.
Continuing that relentless push, SpaceX’s next mission – Starlink 2-4 – is scheduled to launch as early as 7:23 am PDT (15:23 UTC) tomorrow, January 19th.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
