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SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell expects BFR spaceship hop tests in late 2019
Speaking on a panel titled “Future of Space” at a 2018 conference for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) 60th anniversary, SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell reportedly confirmed that SpaceX is still targeting integrated BFR tests in 2019, in the form of hops with the next-gen rocket’s upper stage (known as BFS).
Shotwell: think we’ll be “hopping” the second stage of BFR (the BFS) late next year. #DARPA60
— Jeff Foust (@jeff_foust) September 6, 2018
SpaceX has been gradually developing the BFR over the last two or so years, a rocket specifically intended to itself enable the sustainable, long-term colonization of Mars as quickly as practicable. The vast majority of that effort has been put funneled into the heart of the vehicle, a new propulsion system known as Raptor. Predicted years ago to be several times more powerful than the most modern iteration of Raptor, the rocket engine is targeting extreme efficiency both in its thrust to mass ratio and in the unique full-flow staged combustion cycle that will feed it propellant.
According to a major update from Elon Musk in late 2017 and early 2018, Raptor is expected to be roughly two times as powerful as the Block 5 Merlin 1D engines that power SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Heavy rockets, while also being dramatically more efficient (judged from a measure known as Isp, or specific impulse) thanks to that aforementioned combustion cycle and the choice of liquid methane and oxygen as BFR’s propellant. In its sea level variant, SpaceX’s c. 2017 Raptor will generate 1700 kN (~380,000 lbf) of thrust – exactly 2X Merlin 1D’s current ~850 kN (~190,000 lbf) thrust rating. The vacuum variants of each rocket engine wind up with roughly 10% greater thrust.
SpaceX’s Mars city aspirations are functionally unachievable without an extraordinarily capable Raptor propulsion system ready to power BFR’s booster and spaceship. As such, initial hop tests (akin to the Grasshopper testing SpaceX used to flesh out Falcon 9 rocket recovery) can be expected to lean heavily towards a flight-test program for Raptor, perhaps mixed with some more serious structural experimentation and testing in later phases.
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It’s also likely that initial Grasshopper-style testing of BFS will focus in part on the vehicle’s legs and general aerodynamic characteristics, absolutely critical if SpaceX hopes to land its first cargo and crew spaceships on unprepared Martian terrain – something that will have to be done to avoid major changes in early Mars mission strategy. Combined with some sort of autonomous radar (or perhaps a Tesla-assisted computer vision solution) and extensive prior planning (mapping out landing spots), those legs will need to be flexible enough to absorb any major terrain imbalances and prevent the rocket and its sensitive cargo from tipping over.
Equally importantly, hop testing – at least of the more extreme variety hinted at by CEO Elon Musk – will also allow SpaceX to test the aerodynamic behavior and control surfaces of the spaceship at points in Earth’s upper atmosphere that almost perfectly mirror the unusual atmospheric conditions on Mars, something that has already been exploited scientifically by both SpaceX and NASA during Falcon 9’s recovery development.
Per long-time SpaceNews correspondent Jeff Foust, Shotwell was paraphrased saying that she expected spaceship hop tests could begin as early as late 2019, admittedly a multi-month delay from “early 2019” comments made by Musk (and even Shotwell) earlier this year and late last year.
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Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.
SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.
The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.
Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean
Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.
We’re sending a ship out to recover Starship https://t.co/fUqUZTITO9
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 28, 2026
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This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.
Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims
Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.
The ship landing was precise, meaning that it would have been caught by the tower arms https://t.co/6nbNrRfX9P
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.
It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.
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Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.
The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.
Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”
People on Mars in roughly 5 to 7 years.
Mars lander a few years sooner.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”
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Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.
Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.
In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.
The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).
Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.
Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.
SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.
It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.
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The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.
Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.
Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch
Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars
