News
SpaceX’s NASA Crew Dragon launch manifest doubles in three months
NASA says it will soon award SpaceX another five Crew Dragon astronaut transport contracts after purchasing three extra missions from the company on February 28th.
That June 1st announcement means that NASA has more than doubled the number of operational Crew Dragon astronaut launches planned between 2020 to the end of 2030 in the last three months – a decision that represents another major SpaceX upset over Boeing. In reality, NASA has simply made some cold and rational calculations about its two Commercial Crew providers and – with no ill intent – made far-reaching decisions to preemptively secure its astronauts’ access to the International Space Station (ISS) for the rest of this decade. Intentional or not, however, the optics of those decisions speak volumes.
When NASA awarded Boeing and SpaceX their original $4.2 billion and $2.6 billion Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contracts in 2014, the agency’s goal (or hope) was for both providers to complete the development of their Starliner and Crew Dragon spacecraft in roughly the same amount of time. Boeing and SpaceX would have then taken turns, each performing one six-month crew transportation mission per year and ensuring redundant access to the ISS for the rest of its life.
More realistically, the general assumption was that Boeing – an ancient aerospace company with half a century of spaceflight experience – would smoothly complete Starliner while SpaceX – a 12-year-old startup – would struggle to push Crew Dragon across the finish line. Of course, exactly the opposite proved to be true. For what would ultimately become (to NASA) $3.15 billion to Boeing’s $4.95 billion and development and test flight costs of $1.2 billion to Boeing’s $2.2 billion, SpaceX completed its first successful uncrewed and crewed Crew Dragon test flights in March 2019 and May 2020. In contrast, Boeing’s first uncrewed Starliner launch attempt nearly ended in catastrophe in December 2019. A second July 2021 attempt at that mission was prevented from launching by unrelated technical difficulties. Only on May 25th, 2022 did Boeing finally complete the equivalent of Crew Dragon’s March 2019 Demo-1 test flight.
NASA’s February 28th purchase of three more SpaceX Crew Dragon missions was unsurprising. The future of Starliner was still unclear and the Dragon missions it was purchasing could be needed as early as 2023 if Boeing’s spacecraft was not ready in time. The timing of NASA’s notice of intent to purchase another five Crew Dragon missions one week after the end of Boeing’s mostly successful OFT-2 test flight, however, is somewhat surprising. Instead of throwing Boeing a bone after its long-awaited success and somewhat balancing the scales between its two Commercial Crew providers, NASA has ultimately decided to purchase more than twice as many crew missions from SpaceX.
Following NASA and SpaceX’s successful Crew-4 launch last month, the space agency needs 16 more six-month transport missions from SpaceX and Boeing to ensure astronaut access to the ISS between now and late 2030. NASA has issued its intent to perform up to 14 operational Crew Dragon missions and up to 6 Starliner missions (via Boeing’s original contract). Subtracting the 4 missions SpaceX has completed or is in the midst of completing, NASA will soon have all the contracts it needs to crew the ISS until the end of 2030 without purchasing a single extra mission from Boeing.
As a result, barring surprises, SpaceX will likely be responsible for launching 70% of all NASA and ESA astronauts from late 2020 to the end of 2030, while Boeing will be tasked with carrying the remaining 30%. A less likely Commercial Crew outcome would have been hard to imagine in 2014.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.Â
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter.  For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reported its Q4 2025 production and deliveries, with 418,227 vehicles delivered and 434,358 produced worldwide. Energy storage deployments hit a quarterly record at 14.2 GWh.Â
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results were posted on Friday, January 2, 2026.Â
Q4 2025 production and deliveries
In Q4 2025, Tesla produced 422,652 Model 3/Y units and 11,706 other models, which are comprised of the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck, for a total of 434,358 vehicles. Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Energy deployments reached 14.2 GWh, a new record. Similar to other reports, Tesla posted a company thanked customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters for its fourth quarter results.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate that Tesla would deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems in Q4 2025.Â
Tesla’s Full Year 2025 results
For the full year, Tesla produced a total of 1,654,667 vehicles, comprised of 1,600,767 Model Y/3 and 53,900 other models. Tesla also delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in FY 2025, comprised of 1,585,279 Model Y/3 and 50,850 other models. Energy deployments totaled 46.7 GWh over the year.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus expected the company to deliver a total of 1,640,752 vehicles for full year 2025. Analysts also expected Tesla’s energy division to deploy a total of 45.9 GWh during the year.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call is expected to be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.Â
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
