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SpaceX’s NASA Crew Dragon launch manifest doubles in three months
NASA says it will soon award SpaceX another five Crew Dragon astronaut transport contracts after purchasing three extra missions from the company on February 28th.
That June 1st announcement means that NASA has more than doubled the number of operational Crew Dragon astronaut launches planned between 2020 to the end of 2030 in the last three months – a decision that represents another major SpaceX upset over Boeing. In reality, NASA has simply made some cold and rational calculations about its two Commercial Crew providers and – with no ill intent – made far-reaching decisions to preemptively secure its astronauts’ access to the International Space Station (ISS) for the rest of this decade. Intentional or not, however, the optics of those decisions speak volumes.
When NASA awarded Boeing and SpaceX their original $4.2 billion and $2.6 billion Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contracts in 2014, the agency’s goal (or hope) was for both providers to complete the development of their Starliner and Crew Dragon spacecraft in roughly the same amount of time. Boeing and SpaceX would have then taken turns, each performing one six-month crew transportation mission per year and ensuring redundant access to the ISS for the rest of its life.
More realistically, the general assumption was that Boeing – an ancient aerospace company with half a century of spaceflight experience – would smoothly complete Starliner while SpaceX – a 12-year-old startup – would struggle to push Crew Dragon across the finish line. Of course, exactly the opposite proved to be true. For what would ultimately become (to NASA) $3.15 billion to Boeing’s $4.95 billion and development and test flight costs of $1.2 billion to Boeing’s $2.2 billion, SpaceX completed its first successful uncrewed and crewed Crew Dragon test flights in March 2019 and May 2020. In contrast, Boeing’s first uncrewed Starliner launch attempt nearly ended in catastrophe in December 2019. A second July 2021 attempt at that mission was prevented from launching by unrelated technical difficulties. Only on May 25th, 2022 did Boeing finally complete the equivalent of Crew Dragon’s March 2019 Demo-1 test flight.
NASA’s February 28th purchase of three more SpaceX Crew Dragon missions was unsurprising. The future of Starliner was still unclear and the Dragon missions it was purchasing could be needed as early as 2023 if Boeing’s spacecraft was not ready in time. The timing of NASA’s notice of intent to purchase another five Crew Dragon missions one week after the end of Boeing’s mostly successful OFT-2 test flight, however, is somewhat surprising. Instead of throwing Boeing a bone after its long-awaited success and somewhat balancing the scales between its two Commercial Crew providers, NASA has ultimately decided to purchase more than twice as many crew missions from SpaceX.
Following NASA and SpaceX’s successful Crew-4 launch last month, the space agency needs 16 more six-month transport missions from SpaceX and Boeing to ensure astronaut access to the ISS between now and late 2030. NASA has issued its intent to perform up to 14 operational Crew Dragon missions and up to 6 Starliner missions (via Boeing’s original contract). Subtracting the 4 missions SpaceX has completed or is in the midst of completing, NASA will soon have all the contracts it needs to crew the ISS until the end of 2030 without purchasing a single extra mission from Boeing.
As a result, barring surprises, SpaceX will likely be responsible for launching 70% of all NASA and ESA astronauts from late 2020 to the end of 2030, while Boeing will be tasked with carrying the remaining 30%. A less likely Commercial Crew outcome would have been hard to imagine in 2014.
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Tesla Robotaxi app update now tells riders if Cybercab is the better choice
Tesla’s Robotaxi app now shows ETAs, wait times and availability for Cybercab and Model Y.
Tesla has rolled out a new vehicle selection screen in its Robotaxi app, and it puts the numbers riders care about most in front of them before they book.
Version 26.11.0 of the app shows the estimated arrival time, the expected wait and current availability for each vehicle option on a single screen, according to a video shared by @gheeunit on X on November 7. Riders deciding between a Cybercab and a Model Y Robotaxi can now compare those figures side by side instead of picking a car first and learning how long it will take afterward.
Tesla first gave riders that choice on September 3, the day paid Cybercab rides began in Austin. The original version of the screen listed the Cybercab, which seats two, next to the Model Y, which seats four. A later build, 26.8.2, added a seating capacity indicator so groups knew which car would fit them. What it did not show was whether choosing the Cybercab meant standing on the curb a few extra minutes.
Newest version of @robotaxi app has a new vehicle selector UI for choosing between Cybercab and Model Y and shows you the fare for both simultaneously! https://t.co/7qoDQ0vACX — mantequilla 🧈 (@gheeunit) November 7, 2026
That question matters more now than it did two months ago. Tesla had 45 Cybercabs on the Texas DMV roster when rides started. By late October the state listed 573, alongside 631 Model Ys, and community trackers logged a record 1,576 Cybercab sightings across Austin on Halloween alone. With two large fleets sharing one service area, the closest car and the quickest pickup are not always the same vehicle.
Inline availability also changes what happens when demand spikes. If no Cybercab is free nearby, the rider sees that on the selection screen rather than after trying to book one.
For now the comparison is mostly an Austin feature. Riders in Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth and the Florida markets are still matched with Model Y vehicles, though Tesla said on its third quarter earnings call that Cybercab rides would launch in Dallas this month.
The update follows a steady run of smaller changes to the rider experience. Late last month Tesla brought a quiet mode that blacks out the cabin screen to Model Y Robotaxis after first testing it in the Cybercab, and it has stretched Austin service to run from 6 a.m. to 2 a.m.
The Cybercab side of that selection screen is about to get much busier. Elon Musk said this week that Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of 2027 to make room for more Cybercab output, and Tesla has said it is aiming to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year.
Tesla has not published official release notes for version 26.11.0.
Tesla is ending Cybertruck production sometime in mid-2027, according to CEO Elon Musk.
Musk made the announcement on X last night, which came as a shock to many. He said that the Cybertruck will end production “to make room for increased Cybercab production” at Gigafactory Texas.
It is a huge blow to the fans of Tesla who have come to love the Cybertruck and identify with it as a symbol of their fandom. It has been the best-selling electric pickup, but it has had an underwhelming sales performance in terms of what was expected. This is mostly due to Tesla not meeting the prices it planned to offer the Cybertruck, as its unveiling and actual release were four years apart.
Tesla will be winding down production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 6, 2026
Overall, the responses were mixed. Some fans understood the move toward Cybercab production, especially as Tesla is truly pushing the autonomous future through its Robotaxi platform. However, others did not understand it.
“Damn, how many Cybercabs do you guys need?” one response read. Another said it was “Sad but understandable.”Even analyst Gary Black had responded to the news, stating he hoped Tesla planned to replace it with a traditional pickup design.
It doesn’t seem like that will be the case.
Tesla is so hell-bent on delivering autonomy and eventually providing a driverless service that owning a car seems like an arbitrary idea, according to their thesis. Instead, Cybercabs will be available to pick you up and drop you off on demand, safely, without any human help.
As a result, Tesla has thinned its lineup considerably, and one can only ask where the vehicle lineup goes from here. Eventually, it seems like Cybercab could be the only vehicle that Tesla will sell.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next Starship flight set to make history on Friday the 13th
SpaceX is targeting Friday, November 13 for Starship Flight 15 and its first ship catch.
SpaceX is targeting Friday, November 13 for Starship Flight 15, the mission the company plans to use for its first attempt at catching the ship itself with the launch tower.
SpaceX Vice President of Launch Kiko Dontchev shared the date on stage at the UP.Summit on Thursday, according to Ars Technica’s Eric Berger, who was in attendance. It is the first launch target to come directly from a SpaceX executive. Until now, the public schedule had relied on FAA air traffic planning slides, which listed Flight 15 for no earlier than November 8 and later November 12. SpaceX has not posted an official mission page yet, and no launch time has been shared.
The date lands inside the window Elon Musk sketched out last month. Speaking at Giga Texas on October 10, Musk said the flight would “probably launch a little bit before Thanksgiving,” as Teslarati reported. On SpaceX’s third quarter earnings call ten days later, he confirmed that Flight 15 would try to catch both the Super Heavy booster and the ship, and put the odds of a successful ship catch at “more likely than not.” SpaceX also aired an animation of the maneuver during that webcast, showing the ship swinging vertical over Starbase before dropping into the tower’s chopsticks.
The hardware is ready. Booster 22 fired all 33 of its Raptor engines for a full duration static fire at Pad 2 on October 25. Ship 42 followed with a single engine burn simulating a deorbit maneuver on October 26 and a 60 second firing of all six engines the next day, according to NASASpaceflight. Ship 42 had already rehearsed the catch in September, when the Pad 2 arms lifted it into position and crews connected the quick disconnect arm while the vehicle hung from the tower.
The remaining hurdle is regulatory. The FAA’s Starship page does not yet list a Flight 15 license. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said in October that, after “significant constructive engagement with the FAA,” she expects the license to cover a return to the launch site and a tower catch for both stages. Bringing the ship home means a reentry path that heads toward land, rather than ending over open ocean as every Starship flight so far has.
SpaceX has caught Super Heavy three times, on Flights 5, 7 and 8, but the ship comes back from orbital velocity and has never been caught. Flight 14 on September 28 was the first Starship to reach orbit, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites before splashing down despite an early engine shutdown that Musk blamed on engine computer software.
Musk has called a successful ship catch “the first time that there’s been full recovery of an orbital class rocket,” and he has already named the step after it: a Flight 16 where both the booster and the ship fly again. NASASpaceflight reports that Ship 43, the next vehicle in line, is set for static fire testing in December.
Tesla Robotaxi app update now tells riders if Cybercab is the better choice
Tesla is ending Cybertruck production
