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SpaceX and “new space” up against traditionalists for future of NASA
Speculation about the direction of NASA under the Trump Administration has been circling for weeks, and although there are still no definite answers, there’s finally some news about the process being executed.
According to internal White House advisory documents obtained by Politico, there’s a huge push from many advisors for NASA to be used as a driver for privatized space technology; however, that push is bringing the rift between traditional NASA contractors and the “new space” companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin to a head. NASA’s $19 billion dollar budget is simply not large enough to accommodate both commercially-driven and traditional visions for the agency. The struggle is real, apparently, and it isn’t just affecting inner White House circles, either.
Earlier this week, the Commercial Spaceflight Federation (CSF) surprised its audience by endorsing NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS), the heavy lift rocket being built to launch future NASA missions. In his remarks at the FAA’s Commercial Space Conference, CSF chairman Alan Stern characterized the SLS as a “resource” that could be complimentary to commercial space activity.
The surprise at this announcement comes in part from the fact that Boeing, a traditional NASA contractor and one-half of the government-customer-only launch service United Launch Alliance (ULA), is the prime contractor for the SLS. The cost comparison between private and government contracted technology is the issue.
Cost Effectiveness is Key
The billions of dollars it will take to fully develop SLS plus the high cost of launch missions is hard to justify when, for example, SpaceX estimates under $100 million dollars per flight on its upcoming heavy launch vehicle, Falcon Heavy.
SLS is estimated to be capable of carrying many times the payload weight of SpaceX’s vehicle, but it would still cost much less to use multiple SpaceX vehicles for a multi-part payload rather than justify the huge cost for a single launch. That, or one could argue that the cost of a SpaceX or Blue Origin developed vehicle in line with the SLS’s capabilities would be much more cost effective given the pricing record thus far. It also should be noted that such vehicles are, in fact, being designed by these companies already, albeit mostly still in non-tangible state. SpaceX has its Mars-bound Interplanetary Transport System (or “BFR” if you like), and Blue Origin has its “New Armstrong” in the works.
What about Congress?
The push from White House advisers will face obstacles in Congress as well. Space subcommittee members in both the House and Senate have discussed some of the details included in a draft 2017 NASA Authorization Act, the legislation which will define NASA’s priorities, and considering their comments alongside prior legislative drafts, “stay the course” looks to be the general direction. Concern over NASA’s need for “constancy of purpose” is a big driver, as missions requiring long-term development suffer when directives vary too widely from one presidential administration to another.
While prior presentations of NASA Authorization Acts have been lengthy and mostly inviting little to no controversy, they all still contain a requirement to use the SLS and Orion, NASA’s crew capsule under development, for deep space activity and anywhere else suitable. Such emphasis would likely clash with those advocating for transforming NASA’s role to one supporting commercial launch vehicles, especially those promoting the elimination of the SLS entirely.
Also, with thousands of NASA-dependent jobs on the line in the districts hosting SLS development facilities, the stakes are high for any congressional representatives thinking of supporting major shifts for NASA. The lines seem to have been drawn in the proverbial sand.
What about Mars?
News of commercial space supporters advocating for a NASA transition inside the White House may sound hopeful to those rooting for more privatized space technology; however, for colonization dreamers, Mars looks to be a carrot teased at the end of a “Moon first” road. The internal White House documents call for Moon development to begin by 2020, Mars falling under the “and beyond” category of capabilities that could be possible with an overhauled NASA.
In that light, the proposed NASA bills might sound like a Cinderella story for Mars enthusiasts: In order to go to the Prince’s ball (Mars), a whole host of lengthy chores (cis-lunar activity, Moon base, use the SLS, etc.) must be completed first.
If “Moon first” becomes the winner in the end, it still wouldn’t likely interfere with Elon Musk’s Mars plans but rather help them along with all the new space infrastructure launch income for SpaceX. And to continue with the Cinderella bit, we know there’s no way Musk would make it home by midnight anyway, although he does seem to have an affinity for mice.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s net worth is nearing $800 billion, and it’s no small part due to xAI
A newly confirmed $20 billion xAI funding round valued the business at $250 billion, adding an estimated $62 billion to Musk’s fortune.
Elon Musk moved within reach of an unprecedented $800 billion net worth after private investors sharply increased the valuation of xAI Holdings, his artificial intelligence and social media company.
A newly confirmed $20 billion funding round valued the business at $250 billion, adding an estimated $62 billion to Musk’s fortune and widening his lead as the world’s wealthiest individual.
xAI’s valuation jump
Forbes confirmed that xAI Holdings was valued at $250 billion following its $20 billion funding round. That’s more than double the $113 billion valuation Musk cited when he merged his AI startup xAI with social media platform X last year. Musk owned roughly 49% of the combined company, which Forbes estimated was worth about $122 billion after the deal closed.
xAI’s recent valuation increase pushed Musk’s total net worth to approximately $780 billion, as per Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires List. The jump represented one of the single largest wealth gains ever recorded in a private funding round.
Interestingly enough, xAI’s funding round also boosted the AI startup’s other billionaire investors. Saudi investor Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Alsaud held an estimated 1.6% stake in xAI worth about $4 billion, so the recent funding round boosted his net worth to $19.4 billion. Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey and Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison each owned roughly 0.8% stakes that are now valued at about $2.1 billion, increasing their net worths to $6 billion and $241 billion, respectively.
The backbone of Musk’s net worth
Despite xAI’s rapid rise, Musk’s net worth is still primarily anchored by SpaceX and Tesla. SpaceX represents Musk’s single most valuable asset, with his 42% stake in the private space company estimated at roughly $336 billion.
Tesla ranks second among Musk’s holdings, as he owns about 12% of the EV maker’s common stock, which is worth approximately $307 billion.
Over the past year, Musk crossed a series of historic milestones, becoming the first person ever worth $500 billion, $600 billion, and $700 billion. He also widened his lead over the world’s second-richest individual, Larry Page, by more than $500 billion.
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Tesla Cybercab sighting confirms one highly requested feature
The feature will likely allow the Cybercab to continue operating even in conditions when its cameras could be covered with dust, mud, or road grime.
A recent sighting of Tesla’s Cybercab prototype in Chicago appears to confirm a long-requested feature for the autonomous two-seater.
The feature will likely allow the Cybercab to continue operating even in conditions when its cameras could be covered with dust, mud, or road grime.
The Cybercab’s camera washer
The Cybercab prototype in question was sighted in Chicago, and its image was shared widely on social media. While the autonomous two-seater itself was visibly dirty, its rear camera area stood out as noticeably cleaner than the rest of the car. Traces of water were also visible on the trunk. This suggested that the Cybercab is equipped with a rear camera washer.
As noted by Model Y owner and industry watcher Sawyer Merritt, a rear camera washer is a feature many Tesla owners have requested for years, particularly in snowy or wet regions where camera obstruction can affect visibility and the performance of systems like Full Self-Driving (FSD).
While only the rear camera washer was clearly visible, the sighting raises the possibility that Tesla may equip the Cybercab’s other external cameras with similar cleaning systems. Given the vehicle’s fully autonomous design, redundant visibility safeguards would be a logical inclusion.
The Cybercab in Tesla’s autonomous world
The Cybercab is Tesla’s first purpose-built autonomous ride-hailing vehicle, and it is expected to enter production later this year. The vehicle was unveiled in October 2024 at the “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and it is expected to be a major growth driver for Tesla as it continues its transition toward an AI- and robotics-focused company. The Cybercab will not include a steering wheel or pedals and is intended to carry one or two passengers per trip, a decision Tesla says reflects real-world ride-hailing usage data.
The Cybercab is also expected to feature in-vehicle entertainment through its center touchscreen, wireless charging, and other rider-focused amenities. Musk has also hinted that the vehicle includes far more innovation than is immediately apparent, stating on X that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
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Tesla seen as early winner as Canada reopens door to China-made EVs
Tesla had already prepared for Chinese exports to Canada in 2023 by equipping its Shanghai Gigafactory to produce a Canada-specific version of the Model Y.
Tesla seems poised to be an early beneficiary of Canada’s decision to reopen imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles, following the removal of a 100% tariff that halted shipments last year.
Thanks to Giga Shanghai’s capability to produce Canadian-spec vehicles, it might only be a matter of time before Tesla is able to export vehicles to Canada from China once more.
Under the new U.S.–Canada trade agreement, Canada will allow up to 49,000 vehicles per year to be imported from China at a 6.1% tariff, with the quota potentially rising to 70,000 units within five years, according to Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Half of the initial quota is reserved for vehicles priced under CAD 35,000, a threshold above current Tesla models, though the electric vehicle maker could still benefit from the rule change, as noted in a Reuters report.
Tesla had already prepared for Chinese exports to Canada in 2023 by equipping its Shanghai Gigafactory to produce a Canada-specific version of the Model Y. That year, Tesla began shipping vehicles from Shanghai to Canada, contributing to a sharp 460% year-over-year increase in China-built vehicle imports through Vancouver.
When Ottawa imposed a 100% tariff in 2024, however, Tesla halted those shipments and shifted Canadian supply to its U.S. and Berlin factories. With tariffs now reduced, Tesla could quickly resume China-to-Canada exports.
Beyond manufacturing flexibility, Tesla could also benefit from its established retail presence in Canada. The automaker operates 39 stores across Canada, while Chinese brands like BYD and Nio have yet to enter the Canadian market directly. Tesla’s relatively small lineup, which is comprised of four core models plus the Cybertruck, allows it to move faster on marketing and logistics than competitors with broader portfolios.
Elon Musk’s net worth is nearing $800 billion, and it’s no small part due to xAI
Tesla Cybercab sighting confirms one highly requested feature
