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SpaceX’s ultimate ace in the hole is its Starlink satellite internet business
In a 2018 report on the current state of the satellite industry, the rationale behind SpaceX’s decision to expand its business into the construction and operation of a large satellite network – known as Starlink – was brought into sharp contrast, demonstrating just how tiny the market for orbital launches is compared with the markets those same launches create.
First and foremost, it must be acknowledged that SpaceX’s incredible strides in launch vehicles over the last decade or so have been explicitly focused on lowering the cost of access to orbit, the consequences of which basic economics suggests should be a subsequent growth in demand for orbital access. If a sought-after good is somehow sold for less, one would expect that more people would be able and willing to buy it. The launch market is similar, but also very different in the sense that simply reaching orbit has almost no inherent value on its own – what makes it valuable are the payloads, satellites, spacecraft, and humans that are delivered there.
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- An overview of space industry in 2017, produced by Bryce Space & Technology for the 2018 State of Satellite Industry Report.
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- SpaceX’s first two Starlink prototype satellites are pictured here before their inaugural Feb. 2018 launch, showing off a utilitarian design. (SpaceX)
As a consequence, if the cost of access to orbit plummets (as SpaceX hopes to do with reusability) but the cost of the cargo still being placed there does not, there would essentially be no reason at all for demand for launches to increase. For there to be more demand for cheaper launches, the cost of the satellites that predominately fuel the launch market also needs to decrease.
One of the first two prototype Starlink satellites separates from Falcon 9’s upper stage, March 2018. (SpaceX)
Enter Starlink, SpaceX’s internal effort to develop – nearly from scratch – its own highly reliable, cheap, and mass-producible satellite bus, as well as the vast majority of all the hardware and software required to build and operate a vast, orbiting broadband network. Add in comparable companies like OneWeb and an exploding landscape of companies focused on creating a new generation of miniaturized satellites, and the stage has truly begun to be set for a future where the cost of orbital payloads themselves wind up dropping just as dramatically as the cost of launching them.
Just by sheer numbers alone, stepping from launch vehicle and spacecraft production and operations into the satellite manufacturing, services, and connectivity industries is a no-brainer. Bluntly speaking, the market for rocket launches makes up barely more than one-sixtieth – less than 2% – of the entire commercial satellite industry, while services (telecommunications, Earth observation, science, etc.) and equipment (user terminals, GPS receivers, antennae, etc) account for more than 93%. Even the satellite manufacturing industry taken on its own is more than three times as large as the launch industry – $15.5b versus $4.6b in 2017.
In other words, even if SpaceX was to drop the cost of Falcon 9, Heavy, and BFR launches by a factor of 10 and the market for launches expanded exponentially as a result (say 50-100x), the market for launches would still be a tiny fraction of the stagnant, unchanged, unimproved satellite services and production industries. Put simply, there is scarcely any money to be made in rocket launches when compared with literally any other space-related industry.
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- An overview of just the commercial aspects of the satellite industry. (SIA)
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- Falcon Heavy’s inaugural launch, February 2018. (Tom Cross)
While far from a done deal, Starlink is thus without a doubt the most promising established method for SpaceX to dramatically increase its profitable income, income which could thus be invested directly in launch vehicles, space resource utilization, sustainable interplanetary colonies, and more, all while potentially revolutionizing global freedom of connectivity.
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Tesla Cybercab tests are going on overdrive with production-ready units
Tesla is ramping its real-world tests of the Cybercab, with multiple sightings of the vehicle being reported across social media this week.
Tesla is ramping its real-world tests of the Cybercab, with multiple sightings of the autonomous two-seater being reported across social media this week. Based on videos of the vehicle that have been shared online, it appears that Cybercab tests are underway across multiple states.
Recent Cybercab sightings
Reports of Cybercab tests have ramped this week, with a vehicle that looked like a production-ready prototype being spotted at Apple’s Visitor Center in California. The vehicle in this sighting was interesting as it was equipped with a steering wheel. The vehicle also featured some changes to the design of its brake lights.
The Cybercab was also filmed testing at the Fremont factory’s test track, which also seemed to involve a vehicle that looked production-ready. This also seemed to be the case for a Cybercab that was spotted in Austin, Texas, which happened to be undergoing real-world tests. Overall, these sightings suggest that Cybercab testing is fully underway, and the vehicle is really moving towards production.
Production design all but finalized?
Recently, a near-production-ready Cybercab was showcased at Tesla’s Santana Row showroom in San Jose. The vehicle was equipped with frameless windows, dual windshield wipers, powered butterfly door struts, an extended front splitter, an updated lightbar, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket. Interior updates include redesigned dash/door panels, refined seats with center cupholders, updated carpet, and what appeared to be improved legroom.
There seems to be a pretty good chance that the Cybercab’s design has been all but finalized, at least considering Elon Musk’s comments at the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting. During the event, Musk confirmed that the vehicle will enter production around April 2026, and its production targets will be quite ambitious.
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Tesla gets a win in Sweden as union withdraws potentially “illegal” blockade
As per recent reports, the Vision union’s planned anti-Tesla action might have been illegal.
Swedish union Vision has withdrawn its sympathy blockade against Tesla’s planned service center and showroom in Kalmar. As per recent reports, the Vision union’s planned anti-Tesla action might have been illegal.
Vision’s decision to pull the blockade
Vision announced the blockade in early December, stating that it was targeting the administrative handling of Tesla’s facility permits in Kalmar municipality. The sympathy measure was expected to start Monday, but was formally withdrawn via documents sent to the Mediation Institute and Kalmar Municipality last week.
As noted in a Daggers Arbete report, plans for the strike were ultimately pulled after employer group SKR highlighted potential illegality under the Public Employment Act. Vision stressed its continued backing for the Swedish labor model, though Deputy negotiation manager Oskar Pettersson explained that the Vision union and IF Metall made the decision to cancel the planned strike together.
“We will not continue to challenge the regulations,” Petterson said. “The objection was of a technical nature. We made the assessment together with IF Metall that we were not in a position to challenge the legal assessment of whether we could take this particular action against Tesla. Therefore, we chose to revoke the notice itself.”
The SKR’s warning
Petterson also stated that SKR’s technical objection to the Vision union’s planned anti-Tesla strike framed the protest as an unauthorized act. “It was a legal assessment of the situation. Both for us and for IF Metall, it is important to be clear that we stand for the Swedish model. But we should not continue to challenge the regulations and risk getting judgments that lead nowhere in the application of the regulations,” he said.
Vision ultimately canceled its planned blockade against Tesla on December 9. With Vision’s withdrawal, few obstacles remain for Tesla’s long-planned Kalmar site. A foreign electrical firm completed work this fall, and Tesla’s Careers page currently lists a full-time service manager position based there, signaling an imminent opening.
Tesla Semi Program Director Dan Priestly teased the major improvements to the all-electric Class 8 truck on Thursday night, following the company’s decision to overhaul the design earlier this year.
Priestley said he drove the Semi on Thursday, and the improvements appear to be welcomed by one of the minds behind the project. “Our customers are going to love it,” he concluded.
Just drove the redesigned Semi. Our customers are going to love it. https://t.co/KZ88sf1CDL
— Dan Priestley (@danWpriestley) December 19, 2025
The small detail does not seem like much, but it is coming from someone who has been involved in the development of the truck from A to Z. Priestley has been involved in the Semi program since November 2015 and has slowly worked his way through the ranks, and currently stands as the Director of the program.
Tesla Semi undergoes major redesign as dedicated factory preps for deliveries
Tesla made some major changes to the Semi design as it announced at the 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting that it changed the look and design to welcome improvements in efficiency.
Initially, Tesla adopted the blade-like light bar for the Semi, similar to the one that is present on the Model Y Premium and the Cybertruck.
Additionally, there are some slight aesthetic changes to help with efficiency, including a redesigned bumper with improved aero channels, a smaller wraparound windshield, and a smoother roofline for better aero performance.
All of these changes came as the company’s Semi Factory, which is located on Gigafactory Nevada’s property, was finishing up construction in preparation for initial production phases, as Tesla is planning to ramp up manufacturing next year. CEO Elon Musk has said the Semi has attracted “ridiculous demand.”
The Semi has already gathered many large companies that have signed up to buy units, including Frito-Lay and PepsiCo., which have been helping Tesla test the vehicle in a pilot program to test range, efficiency, and other important metrics that will be a major selling point.
Tesla will be the Semi’s first user, though, and the truck will help solve some of the company’s logistics needs in the coming years.
Tesla Cybercab tests are going on overdrive with production-ready units
Tesla gets a win in Sweden as union withdraws potentially “illegal” blockade
