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SpaceX’s ultimate ace in the hole is its Starlink satellite internet business
In a 2018 report on the current state of the satellite industry, the rationale behind SpaceX’s decision to expand its business into the construction and operation of a large satellite network – known as Starlink – was brought into sharp contrast, demonstrating just how tiny the market for orbital launches is compared with the markets those same launches create.
First and foremost, it must be acknowledged that SpaceX’s incredible strides in launch vehicles over the last decade or so have been explicitly focused on lowering the cost of access to orbit, the consequences of which basic economics suggests should be a subsequent growth in demand for orbital access. If a sought-after good is somehow sold for less, one would expect that more people would be able and willing to buy it. The launch market is similar, but also very different in the sense that simply reaching orbit has almost no inherent value on its own – what makes it valuable are the payloads, satellites, spacecraft, and humans that are delivered there.
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- An overview of space industry in 2017, produced by Bryce Space & Technology for the 2018 State of Satellite Industry Report.
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- SpaceX’s first two Starlink prototype satellites are pictured here before their inaugural Feb. 2018 launch, showing off a utilitarian design. (SpaceX)
As a consequence, if the cost of access to orbit plummets (as SpaceX hopes to do with reusability) but the cost of the cargo still being placed there does not, there would essentially be no reason at all for demand for launches to increase. For there to be more demand for cheaper launches, the cost of the satellites that predominately fuel the launch market also needs to decrease.
One of the first two prototype Starlink satellites separates from Falcon 9’s upper stage, March 2018. (SpaceX)
Enter Starlink, SpaceX’s internal effort to develop – nearly from scratch – its own highly reliable, cheap, and mass-producible satellite bus, as well as the vast majority of all the hardware and software required to build and operate a vast, orbiting broadband network. Add in comparable companies like OneWeb and an exploding landscape of companies focused on creating a new generation of miniaturized satellites, and the stage has truly begun to be set for a future where the cost of orbital payloads themselves wind up dropping just as dramatically as the cost of launching them.
Just by sheer numbers alone, stepping from launch vehicle and spacecraft production and operations into the satellite manufacturing, services, and connectivity industries is a no-brainer. Bluntly speaking, the market for rocket launches makes up barely more than one-sixtieth – less than 2% – of the entire commercial satellite industry, while services (telecommunications, Earth observation, science, etc.) and equipment (user terminals, GPS receivers, antennae, etc) account for more than 93%. Even the satellite manufacturing industry taken on its own is more than three times as large as the launch industry – $15.5b versus $4.6b in 2017.
In other words, even if SpaceX was to drop the cost of Falcon 9, Heavy, and BFR launches by a factor of 10 and the market for launches expanded exponentially as a result (say 50-100x), the market for launches would still be a tiny fraction of the stagnant, unchanged, unimproved satellite services and production industries. Put simply, there is scarcely any money to be made in rocket launches when compared with literally any other space-related industry.
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- An overview of just the commercial aspects of the satellite industry. (SIA)
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- Falcon Heavy’s inaugural launch, February 2018. (Tom Cross)
While far from a done deal, Starlink is thus without a doubt the most promising established method for SpaceX to dramatically increase its profitable income, income which could thus be invested directly in launch vehicles, space resource utilization, sustainable interplanetary colonies, and more, all while potentially revolutionizing global freedom of connectivity.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk shares optimistic teaser about FSD V14: “Feels sentient”
FSD V14 is arguably the second biggest update to Tesla AI/Autopilot after the release of V12, Musk wrote.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has provided a rather exciting teaser about the capabilities of Full Self-Driving’s (FSD) upcoming V14 update.
As per Musk, V14 is arguably the second biggest update to Tesla AI/Autopilot after the release of V12, which started its initial rollout to Tesla employees way back November 2023.
Tesla FSD V14
Elon Musk has been teasing the capabilities of FSD V14 in recent weeks. Earlier this month, the CEO shared that FSD V14 will feature a 10X higher parameter count, and it will also nag drivers significantly less than the system’s current iteration. While FSD V14 is not Unsupervised FSD, which is being used in the Austin Robotaxi pilot, it is expected to be a significant improvement nonetheless.
“The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less,” Musk wrote in his post.
“Feels sentient”
Musk recently shared some more details about FSD V14 on X. In response to a video of a William Blair analyst who mentioned that Tesla’s Robotaxi service felt a lot more like a person was driving it compared to Waymo’s robotic maneuvers, Musk noted that “Version 14 of Tesla self-driving fells sentient.”
Musk also clarified that the system that the William Blair analyst experienced was Version 13, so the system’s performance will definitely get even better. “He was just on version 13. Version 14 is the second biggest update to Tesla AI/Autopilot ever after V12. It feels alive,” Musk wrote in his post.
Musk’s comments bode well for the rollout of FSD V14. So far, FSD has reached a point where drivers and passengers have commented that the system already operates a vehicle in a very cautious and humanlike manner. Having a system that feels “sentient,” as the CEO noted, would most definitely be game-changing.
News
Tesla Model Y L attracts crowds across China stores
The Tesla Model Y L is shaping up to be a big hit in China.
Tesla has officially rolled out the Model Y L, a six-seat variant of its best-selling SUV, across all showrooms in China, and it is getting a lot of attention from potential buyers.
Images and videos from Tesla stores in China show crowds of people checking out the recently released extended wheelbase all-electric crossover.
Model Y L details
The vehicle, which carries a starting price of RMB 339,000 ($47,180), went live in Tesla China’s configurator this week. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in September, and early media reviews have already been released following the lifting of an embargo.
Unlike a full model refresh, the Model Y L is positioned as a new variant within the existing Model Y lineup. It joins the five-seat rear-wheel drive (RWD) and long-range all-wheel drive (AWD) Model Y variants currently available in China.
The six-seat Model Y L features dual-motor all-wheel drive, a 0–100 km/h time of 4.5 seconds, and an 82.0-kWh battery pack from LG Energy Solution. Its CLTC-rated range reaches 751 km, the highest among Tesla’s Model Y trims.
So far, the reception to the Model Y L appears to be very warm, with photos and videos of stores in locations such as Shanghai and Shenyang showing numerous people checking out the recently released vehicle. Reports from industry watchers in China also suggest that Tesla received about 35,000 orders for the Model Y L on its first day of release.
Market backdrop
The timing of the Model Y L’s release comes as Tesla faces headwinds in China’s competitive SUV segment. Between January and July, Model Y retail sales in the country reached 202,257 units, a 17.15 percent decline compared to the same period last year, according to data cited by CNEVPost. It should be noted, however, that a good portion of this decline was due to the retooling of Tesla’s factories to make way for the new Model Y.
Despite the slowdown, the Model Y remains one of Tesla’s strongest performers globally. By introducing a higher-range, six-seat option, Tesla appears to be positioning the Model Y L as a way to boost demand and appeal to new buyers in a market that was previously only accessible to the much more expensive Model X.
News
Tesla Model Y L gets disappointingly far production date in the United States
Fans of the extended wheelbase six-seater in the United States are in for a long wait.
The Tesla Model Y L is making a lot of waves in the electric vehicle community, but fans of the extended wheelbase six-seater in the United States are in for a long wait.
This was, at least, according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who provided a disappointingly long timeline for the Model Y L’s production in the United States.
The Model Y L
The Model Y L has received near universal acclaim from electric vehicle enthusiasts and auto reviewers in China alike. Priced at just RMB 339,000 ($47,180) and fitted with a spacious and comfortable cabin, the Model Y L seemed destined to become a segment killer. And since the vehicle is also produced in Tesla’s existing Model Y lines, it seemed like the vehicle would be released worldwide soon.
It was then no surprise that many Tesla community members were keen on asking if the Model Y L will be released in the United States anytime soon. Others also wondered why CEO Elon Musk was very quiet about the vehicle despite all the buzz it was generating. Eventually, Musk did share an update about the Model Y L, but it was not what many expected.
Elon Musk’s update
Amidst the conversations on X about the Model Y L, longtime FSD tester Whole Mars Catalog noted that Elon Musk would not be saying anything about the vehicle until its international release, likely because he would like to avoid an Osbourne Effect on the standard Model Y. Tesla’s sales today are still highly dependent on the standard Model Y, after all, as it is the company’s best-selling vehicle.
Musk responded to the FSD tester, stating that the Model Y L will not start production in the United States until the end of 2026. He also noted that the vehicle might not even make it in America at all, considering Tesla’s focus on self-driving. “This variant of the Model Y doesn’t start production in the US until the end of next year. Might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America,” Musk wrote in his post.
Musk’s post was received with much disappointment from many X users, some of whom joked that the CEO was risking alienating families with three kids with his comments. The Model Y L, after all, is a legitimate family car that can comfortably seat six, and it seemed like a vehicle that Musk would prioritize considering his stance on people having bigger families. Of course, the CEO might still just be preventing an Osbourne Effect with his comments, but it’s difficult to deny that a 2026 U.S. production date for the Model Y L is still disappointing.
Tesla’s Elon Musk shares optimistic teaser about FSD V14: “Feels sentient”
Tesla Model Y L attracts crowds across China stores
Tesla Model Y L gets disappointingly far production date in the United States
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