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SpaceX Starship ready to find out if third time’s the charm later this week

Elon Musk says that there's a "good chance of [Starship SN10] flying this week" after myriad issues outside of SpaceX's control caused more than a week of delays. (NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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After a miserable week of extreme cold, power grid failures, high winds, and general chaos, conditions are improving, the sun is shining, and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk believes there’s a “good chance” that Starship serial number 10 (SN10) could launch “this week!”

The third full-scale, full-height Starship completed by SpaceX since Starship SN8 rolled from factory to launch pad in October 2020, Starship SN10 is the second to last in a series of four similar prototypes built for the sole purpose of proving out an unprecedented method of landing rockets. On its December 8th debut, Starship SN8 – the first prototype to launch with a nose, flaps, three Raptor engines, and a high-altitude apogee target – made it far closer to total success than almost anyone expected.

After more than six minutes of flawless flight, breaking all kinds of records for Starship’s Raptor engine and achieving multiple ‘firsts,’ an unexpected issue with tank pressurization caused SN8 to lose thrust and impact the ground at speed just 10-20 seconds before a planned soft landing. Less than two months later, Starship SN9 – virtually identical – attempted an identical 10 km (6.2 mi) launch and landing, only to fail around the same time as SN8 – albeit for different reasons.

Already installed on a second launch mount when Starship SN9 lifted off, SN10 is thus tasked with avoiding the ‘header tank’ pressurization issue that doomed SN8 and the Raptor reignition failure that doomed SN9. If SpaceX has rectified those two or three critical issues in the weeks since, SN10 arguably has the best chance yet of successfully touching down in one piece.

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If SN10 fails to stick the landing, SpaceX has yet another Starship – SN11 – more or less complete and ready to roll to the launch pad to pick up wherever its predecessor leaves off. Due to the wholly unexpected degree to which Starship SN8 beat expectations, SpaceX appeared to scrap plans to build Starships SN12, 13, and 14 – quite literally in the case of SN12.

Instead, SpaceX expedited plans to implement “major [Starship] upgrades” from SN15 onwards. Sections of Starships SN15, SN16, SN17, SN18, and SN19 are visible throughout SpaceX’s South Texas rocket factory, while work simultaneously continues on the first two Super Heavy booster prototypes – BN1 and BN2.

Prior to launch, Starship SN10 still needs to complete a healthy three-engine static fire test that was delayed from last week to no earlier than Monday, February 22nd. Backup windows are available on Tuesday and Wednesday. If Starship SN10 can fire up its Raptor engines without issue at some point in that three-day period, odds are good that SpaceX will be able to squeeze in at least one or two launch attempts before the weekend.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Music City Loop could highlight The Boring Company’s real disruption

The real story behind the tunneling startup’s Nashville tunnel project is the company’s targeted $25 million per mile construction cost.

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Credit: The Boring Company/X

Recent commentary on social media has highlighted what could very well prove to be The Boring Company’s real disruption.

The analysis was shared by tech watcher Aakash Gupta on social media platform X, where he argued that the real story behind the tunneling startup’s Nashville tunnel project is the company’s targeted $25 million per mile construction cost.

According to Gupta’s breakdown, Nashville’s 2018 light rail proposal was priced at roughly $200 million per mile. New York’s East Side Access project reportedly cost about $3.5 billion per mile, while Los Angeles Metro expansion projects have approached $1 billion per mile.

By comparison, The Boring Company has stated it can construct 13 miles of twin tunnels in the Music City Loop for between $240 million and $300 million total. That implies a cost near $25 million per mile, or roughly a 95% reduction from industry averages cited in the post.

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Several technical departures from conventional tunneling allow the Boring Company to lower its costs, from its smaller 12-foot diameter tunnels to its fully electric Prufrock machines that are designed to mine continuously with no personnel inside the tunnel and their capability to “porpoise” for easy launch and retrieval.

Tesla and Space CEO Elon Musk responded to the post on X, stating simply that “Tunnels are so underrated.”

The Boring Company has seen some momentum as of late, with the company recently signing a construction contract in Dubai and the Universal Orlando Loop progressing. Recent reports have also pointed to tunnels potentially being constructed to solve traffic congestion issues near the Giga Nevada area. 

While The Boring Company’s tunnels have so far been used for Loop systems publicly for now, Elon Musk recently noted that the tunneling startup’s underground passages would not be limited only to ride-hailing vehicles. 

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In a reply to a post on X which discussed the specifications of the Music City Loop, Musk clarified that “any fully autonomous electric cars can use the tunnels.” This suggests that vehicles potentially running systems like FSD Supervised, even if they are not Teslas, could be used in systems like the Music City Loop in the future.

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SpaceX IPO could push Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion: Polymarket

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

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Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Recent projections have outlined how a potential $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO could generate historic returns for early investors. The projections suggest the offering would not only become the largest IPO in history but could also result in unprecedented windfalls for some of the company’s key investors.

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

As noted in a Polymarket Money analysis, Elon Musk invested $100 million into SpaceX in 2002 and currently owns approximately 42% of the company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation following SpaceX’s potential $1.75 trillion IPO, that stake would be worth roughly $735 billion.

Such a figure would dramatically expand Musk’s net worth. When combined with his holdings in Tesla Inc. and other ventures, a public debut at that level could position him as the world’s first trillionaire, depending on market conditions at the time of listing.

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The Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently lists Elon Musk with a net worth of $666 billion, though a notable portion of this is tied to his TSLA stock. Tesla currently holds a market cap of $1.51 trillion, and Elon Musk’s currently holds about 13% to 15% of the company’s outstanding common stock.

Founders Fund, co-founded by Peter Thiel, invested $20 million in SpaceX in 2008. Polymarket Money estimates the firm owns between 1.5% and 3% of the private space company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that range would translate to approximately $26.25 billion to $52.5 billion in value.

That return would represent one of the most significant venture capital outcomes in modern Silicon Valley history, with a growth of 131,150% to 262,400%.

Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, invested $900 million into SpaceX in 2015 and is estimated to hold between 6% and 7% of the private space firm. At the projected IPO valuation, that stake could be worth between $105 billion and $122.5 billion. That’s a growth of 11,566% to 14,455%.

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Other major backers highlighted in the post include Fidelity Investments, Baillie Gifford, Valor Equity Partners, Bank of America, and Andreessen Horowitz, each potentially sitting on multibillion-dollar gains.

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Tesla expands global FSD (Supervised) testing with Abu Dhabi trials

The program marks the emirate’s first formal testing framework for Tesla’s supervised autonomous driving technology.

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Tesla has started its first Full Self-Driving (Supervised) road trials in Abu Dhabi under the oversight of the Integrated Transport Centre, also known as Abu Dhabi Mobility. 

The program marks the emirate’s first formal testing framework for Tesla’s supervised autonomous driving technology.

FSD (Supervised) road trials are being conducted with the support of the Smart and Autonomous Systems Council and in coordination with the Legislation Lab at the General Secretariat of the UAE Cabinet.

Dr. Abdulla Hamad AlGhfeli, Acting Director General of the Integrated Transport Centre (Abu Dhabi Mobility), highlighted the agency’s regulatory role in overseeing the FSD (Supervised) tests in a press release

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“The supervision of the Integrated Transport Centre (Abu Dhabi Mobility) over the commencement of Tesla’s advanced autonomous driving technology tests reflects its regulatory and legislative role. These tests represent a qualitative step to evaluate the technology’s performance in a real-world operating environment and to collect the necessary data to verify its readiness before any future expansion in usage.

“Through this organized framework, and in cooperation with strategic partners, we seek to achieve a balance between supporting innovation and encouraging the adoption of smart solutions on one hand and ensuring the safety of road users on the other, in line with the emirate’s direction to develop an advanced, safe, and sustainable transport system,” he said. 

Tesla is putting a lot of effort into expanding the rollout of FSD (Supervised) to territories outside in the United States. During a recent interview with Giga Berlin plant manager Andre Thierig, Musk stated that Tesla is looking to secure approval for FSD (Supervised) in the Netherlands this coming March. 

“Tesla has the most advanced real-world AI, and hopefully, it will be approved soon in Europe. We’re told by the authorities that March 20th, it’ll be approved in the Netherlands,’ what I was told. Hopefully, that date remains the same. But I think people in Europe are going to be pretty blown away by how good the Tesla car AI is in being able to drive,” Musk stated.

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