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SpaceX’s first flight-proven Starship could fly again, says Elon Musk
Elon Musk says that SpaceX wants to reuse its first flight-proven Starship prototype, although the rocket’s second hop might come after the debut of a totally different ship.
On August 4th, for the first time ever, a full-scale Starship prototype measuring some 9m (30 ft) wide and 30m (~100 ft) tall lifted off from SpaceX’s Boca Chica, Texas test facilities. Just three weeks shy of the first anniversary of Starhopper’s last flight test, Starship serial number 5 (SN5) essentially repeated the stubby prototype’s 150m (~500 ft) hop before (relatively) gently landing on an adjacent concrete pad.
Over the last several days, SpaceX has gradually been working through the unprecedented task of inspecting, safing, and relocating a flight-proven Starship. At the same time, the company has to check out the fixed launch mount structured that supported the test flight and provided Starship with power, propellant, and wired communications. As teams work to get both ship and mount ready for round two, CEO Elon Musk has taken to Twitter to discuss some of SpaceX’s nearer-term goals and plans for Starship testing – including SN5’s role in them.
Starship SN5’s hop debut was a spectacular success for SpaceX, verifying that steel and radically simple and manufacturing techniques can quickly build a cheap pressure vessel capable of controlled flight. The flight also reaffirmed that the next-generation Raptor engine is capable of operating uninterrupted for at least ~50 seconds, although Starhopper’s 150m hop proved the same thing some 20 engine prototypes and 13 months prior.
Still, while it unequivocally proved that SpaceX is on the right track, both the lead-up to Starship SN5’s hop and the hop itself hint that a few kinks will still need to be worked out. Notably, during SN5’s hop, part of Raptor engine SN27 appeared to catch fire at some point after ignition, producing substantial flames that lasted for at least 10 seconds. For any rocket engine, an onboard fire is always a possibility, but most engines are either designed to tolerate the inhospitable environment they create or heavily insulated from it.
Festooned with sensitive wires and harnesses, Raptor prototypes are likely not meant to experience an extended onboard fire and remain functional, but SN27 nevertheless did just that. At a minimum, Starship SN5 thus likely needs a new Raptor engine before it can begin to prepare for a second hop.
The prototype will also assuredly need several new landing legs after destroying at least two during its launch and landing debut. It’s worth pointing out that the leg damage visible above is almost certainly the result of an intentional design choice, ensuring that landings slightly rougher than expected transfer most of their stress into Starship’s legs instead of its hull. Given just how simple they appear, the current leg design likely makes them effectively disposable, allowing SpaceX to focus its effort on unsolved problems as a more refined and reusable leg design comes to fruition.
Aside from confirming that SpaceX at least intends to reuse Starship SN5 on future hops, Musk revealed that he wants to refine the launch procedure until the company is able to easily perform multiple Starship hops per day. This suggests that the next one or several months could be chock full of Starship hop attempts. Musk also noted that Starship SN6 – a prototype built along SN5 and effectively completed weeks ago – would likely attempt its first flight before SN5 hops a second time. SpaceX began stacking the upgraded Starship SN8 prototype just a few days ago, raising the question of whether Starship SN6 would be made redundant before it could even left the factory.
Thankfully, it seems that the ship will instead be able to work alongside its sister (SN5) to help SpaceX simplify and expedite Starship test and launch operations. As of now, it’s unclear when SpaceX intends to restart Starship testing, but Musk’s comments point towards the next test happening far sooner than later.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
